Date: September 1st, 2021
Triple digit losses across the livestock futures, corn and soybeans held losses but at least came back from double digits lower and wheat held near unchanged yesterday. Honestly it appears the most influential market mover yesterday was the end of the month position squaring. New recent lows hit for live cattle, feeder cattle and corn yesterday but fundamental news was light. Cash fed cattle trade light so far this week with trade in the North reported at $128 live, steady with top end from a week ago.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/30/2021
This Week: 7,187 Last Week: 5,186 Last Year: 9,416
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers unevenly steady. Steer calves 5.00 – 8.00 higher. Heifer calves 1.00 – 2.00 lower. Demand moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/30/2021
This Week: 2,648 Last Week: 2,225 Last Year: 2,880
Compared to last week: Steers 6.00-9.00 higher. Heifers mostly steady to 2.00 lower. Demand good, quality plain thru attractive.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/30/2021
This Week: 4,916 Last Week: 4,617 Last Year: 5,751
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 4.00 higher with feeder heifers trading steady to 3.00 higher. Supply moderate with good demand.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/31/2021
This Week: 2,550 Last Week: 1,429 Last Year: 2,427
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded steady to 5.00 higher. There were too few yearlings last week for an adequate comparison; however undertones were steady to firm. Demand was good on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and matching last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 479,000, up 5,000 compared to a week ago and up 11,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s hog slaughter revised to 471,000 head, down 6,000.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on light demand with 89 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__342.11 -.67
Select Cutout__312.03 -.52
CME Feeder Cattle Index__159.54 -.02
CME Lean Hog Index__103.72 +.23
Pork Carcass Cutout__109.01 -.07
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__92.95 +2.23
October live cattle still holding a higher trend, but testing that support line with yesterday’s lower close and just a couple ticks off the daily low. The next is down at $125.80 then around $124 with resistance at $129.40 and the new contract high just last week at $132.85. September feeders also still holding the higher trend and testing that support yesterday with the next down at $160, resistance at $165.40 and a new contract high last week at $169.52. October lean hogs choppy sideways the past few months with support at $87.70 then $86 and resistance at $91.40 then around $93. The contract high at $97.97 was hit back on June 10th.
Some of the corn and soybean pressure rolling over from Monday as damage to gulf shippers still be assessed. Weather impacts, beyond the remnants of Hurricane Ida bringing heavy rains to the Southeast, look to be a non-event with temps finally cooling and sporadic rains across the Plains and Corn Belt over this next week. All September grain contracts are now in delivery and the new marketing year begins today. Monday’s crop conditions were left unchanged which is supportive to price as most expected to see improvements for both corn and soybeans. The technical damage on the charts will be watched very closely though the rest of this week.
Overnight, grains were mixed with corn and soybeans still sliding lower and both finishing the overnight 5 lower while wheat finished 2 lower to 2 higher. Wheat continues to be supported by lower world production estimates. Earlier this week it was Stats Canada and today it is SovEcon reducing their Russian wheat production estimate another 0.8 MMT to 75.4 MMT. Last month, USDA slashed their Russian wheat estimate by 12.5 MMT to 72.5 MMT.
The remnants of Hurricane Ida still dropping heavy rain in the TN River Valley and the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into the weekend and early next week, good rains in the forecast from KS up into the Dakota’s and MN. The 6-10 day outlook forecasting above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. and below normal for the eastern half with above normal moisture in the Southwest and Northeast and below normal from the PNW through the Plains and Midwest.
December corn breaking through one higher trend line yesterday with a new recent low. Honestly the $5.07 to $5.00 area is the key support with resistance up from $5.50 to $5.60. November soybeans broke down through the higher trendline 2 weeks ago but since has been bouncing from $12.77 to $13.40 and again testing that support this week. September KC wheat breaking nearby support yesterday for a new recent low at $6.88 ½ but able to pull back higher with resistance at $7.25. September Chicago wheat also a new recent low yesterday at $6.90 ¼ with resistance around $7.30. September MPLS wheat also a new recent low yesterday at $8.96 ¾ with resistance around $9.50. Just a reminder though, September grain contracts now in delivery with thin volume and no daily trading limits. Most locations should have already shifted cash bids vs. December futures for corn, grain sorghum and all wheat and November for soybeans.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700