Date: May 16th, 2023
All livestock futures able to finish in the green except for the front month June live cattle contract. Cash is still premium to futures with delivery a couple weeks out so traders are leery of pushing too much without at least steady if not improved cash fed cattle trade this week. Last week’s negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 81,474 head at an average of $176.41 live steers and $278.27 dressed. Of that, 71% (57,882 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 29% (23,592 head) were committee for the deferred delivery. Feeders and lean hogs held triple digit gains as both took out nearby resistance which were last week’s highs.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 05/13/2023
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 173,900 45,400 42,800 262,100
Last Week: 165,900 73,000 26,800 265,700
Year Ago: 161,200 31,200 3,800 196,200
Compared to last week, steers and heifers in the Southeast and North Central areas were steady to 3.00 higher, while those in the South Central was steady to 3.00 lower. Demand was moderate to good. Many producers have continued to bring calves to town earlier than usual as prices remain good even if they aren’t at the same levels as a few weeks ago. Large if not huge
runs of cows came to auctions this week in cow-calf states as ranchers look to conserve grass in any way they can. Looking at the moisture maps, areas in the central part of the
US received rainfall in the inches categories however, still not enough to break the drought. Issues of dryness and short grass do not just go away overnight, and no one wants to push short pastures before summer actually arrives.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/15/2023 – Prelim
This Week: 4,105 Last Week: 8,319 Last Year: 9,659
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and steer calve steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves steady. Demand extremely good for light receipts and lesser quality. Quality mostly plain to average. Receipts limited due to heavy rains and up to 4 inches in some areas. 7 weight index steers averaged $203 to $210 and 8 weights averaged $192 to $194.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/15/2023 – Final
This Week: 5,972 Last Week: 10,252 Last Year: 5,822
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 3.00-6.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 6.00-10.00 higher with some 4-5 weight heifers up to 15.00 higher. Supply was moderate with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $203 to $209 and 8 weights averaged $197 to $204.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 126,000 head, matching last week and up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 469,000 head, up 1,000 compared to a week ago and up 2,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday lower on Choice but steady on Select on moderate demand with 91 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__301.98 -2.63
Select Cutout__284.71 +.03
CME Feeder Cattle Index__202.11 +1.53
CME Lean Hog Index__76.50 +.59
Pork Carcass Cutout __84.38 +.97
June live cattle back above all major moving averages with support at $161.20, resistance at $165.77 and the contract high at $166.27. May feeders sharply lower two weeks ago with support at $202. Monday’s trade moved above nearby resistance with the next at $208 then the contract high at $212.77. June lean hogs down to a new contract low last week at $82.72 with resistance at $87 then $92.
Grains all finished higher as wheat continues to be the leader and pulling all higher with it. The KS Wheat Quality tour begins today as many will be anxious to review the comments and pics sent over social media for confirmation it is as bad as many have already been saying for months now. There’s also the Black Sea safe shipping deal that has not been renewed and set to expire on the 18th supporting the grains.
Export Inspections for the week ending May 11th for corn at the top end of expectations and soybeans at the bottom end as China shifts to taking beans from Brazil and corn from the U.S. Brazil’s second crop corn though looking very good and will provide an ample source later this summer. Corn inspections totaled 46.2 MBU with year to date moving up to 64% of the export estimate, which USDA decreased by 75 MBU last Friday. China the #1 destination at 18.6 MBU followed by Mexico taking 13.9 MBU. Soybean inspections only 5.4 MBU as year to date shipments are at 90% of the export estimate. Mexico the #1 destination taking 2.1 MBU. Wheat inspections only 8.9 MBU as we remain on pace to hit USDA’s export estimate with just a couple weeks left in the marketing year.
After the close, USDA updated crop progress and conditions. Corn planted nationwide up 16 points to now 65%, but 3% behind expectations this week. Last year at this time 45% was planted and the 5-year average is at 59%. Corn emergence up 18 points to 30% compared to 13% last year and 25% for the average. Soybeans planted nationwide up 14 points to now 49%, this also a little behind the expectations. This compares to 27% last year and the 5-year average at 36%. Soybeans emerged up 11 to 20% compared to 8% last year and 11% average. Spring wheat planted up 16 points to 40% nationwide vs. 37% last year and 57% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat headed up 11 points to 49% nationally compared to 46% last year and 48% 5-year average. National winter wheat conditions still near the worst in history with 29% rated Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week, while Poor/Very Poor improved by 3% to now 41%. This compares to 27% G/E and 41% P/VP last year. KS crop G/E down 1% to 10% and P/VP unchanged at 68%
Grains were weaker overnight as corn is having a difficult time extending any gains without the support of a higher wheat market. Outside markets fairly quiet with equities and US$ steady to slightly lower while energies are steady to higher. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 5 lower, soybeans 6 to 11 lower and wheat steady to 6 lower.
Scattered rains still around this week with heavier amounts expected again over the Southern Plains towards the end of the week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps north and west and below normal temps in the South with above normal precipitation in the Southwest and below normal across the Midwest and the Corn Belt.
July corn choppy the past couple weeks with support around $5.70 and resistance at the $6 level. December hit a new 16-month low on Monday at $5.03 ¼ with resistance at $5.37. July soybeans holding support over the past 2 months at $13.83 ¾ with nearby resistance at $14.18. The November contract also testing support with last summer’s low at $12.17 ¼ and resistance at $12.53. July KC wheat $1.76 higher from the new lows on May 2nd to Monday’s high with resistance next around $9.50 and support at $8.32. July Chicago wheat still holding the long-term lower trend with the recent low at $6.03 ¾ and resistance at $6.69. July MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on May 3rd at $7.69 and now back to test the lower trendline resistance with the next up at $8.95. July soybean meal breaking the month-long lower trend after a recent low last week at $416.10 and resistance at $452.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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