Date: February 3rd, 2020
Livestock futures were mixed Friday but yet again lower for the week as hog futures were down over $10 for the week. The fast spreading coronavirus continues to lead the newswires with more travel bans imposed and fear that economies in Southeast Asia will begin to slowdown. Cash feedlot trade backed up $2 this past week to $122 live, the first move off the $124 level this year. Dresses trade in Nebraska developed late last week at $195, $4 lower.
UDSA reported January 1 Cattle Inventory down slightly compared to a year ago with all cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2020 at 94.4 million head, slightly below the 94.8 million head on January 1, 2019. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 40.7 million head, were 1 percent below the 41.0 million head on January 1, 2019. Beef cows, at 31.3 million head, were down 1 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.33 million head, were down slightly from the previous year. Beef replacement heifers, at 5.77 million head, were down 2 percent from a year ago. The 2019 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 36.1 million head, down 1 percent from last year’s calf crop.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 01/31/2020
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 253,100 14,300 2,500 269,900
Last Week: 220,600 39,600 36,800 297,000
Year Ago: 210,700 53,900 3,500 268,100
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold mostly 2.00 to 5.00 lower, with instances as much as 10.00 lower. There was some hesitation among buyers this week, as the CME futures had a downward turn and sell-off early in the trading period. Long weaned and backgrounded cattle continued to be in good demand, as we are in the heart of winter. Heavy rains, along with a cold front, moved thru the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle, which resulted in lighter than normal receipts. Additionally, weather continued to hamper supplies across much of the Midwest and Southeast. Throughout the majority of Nebraska, it was noted that several consignments were carrying excess mud, as pen conditions are sloppy and muddy.
For the week, Friday January 24th through Friday January 31st, February Live Cattle -$3.47, April -$4.62, March Feeder Cattle -$3.60, April -$4.97, February Lean Hogs -$10.10, April -$11.85. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.49 @ $213.00, Select -$.04 @ $210.66. Pork Carcass Cutout -$7.81 @ $69.57.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 122,000 head, matching the week previous and up 17,000 from last year. For the week, 637,000 head, down 10,000 from the week previous but up 44,000 from last year.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 484,000 head, down 10,000 compared to the week previous but up 17,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,703,000 head, down 17,000 compared to the week previous but up 331,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values weak to lower on light demand and offerings for a total of 74 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__213.00 -.35
Select Cutout__210.66 -.82
CME Feeder Index__142.38 -.50
CME Lean Hog Index__62.36 -.42
Pork Carcass Cutout__69.57 -1.33
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__53.15 -.29
National Wtd Avg Live Price__42.76 -.34, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__52.49 -1.71
February live cattle hit a new 3-month low last week at $121.12 with support next down around $119 and resistance up at $125. March feeders hit a new 4-month low last week at $134.20 with support next at $130 and resistance up at $138.80 then $143. February lean hogs crashing hard last week hitting a new contract low on Friday at $56.85 with support next at $$52.75 and $52.25, the spot lows from last year and resistance at $67.
Grains finished mixed to mostly lower on Friday and overall again lower for the week. The soy complex continues to take the biggest hit while wheat joined in the ride lower this past week. Corn as tried to hold its own these past couple weeks with exports sales and shipments picking up now that U.S. values are once again competitive in the world marketplace. The Lunar New Year has ended as markets in Asia will back open and the hope is to see some sales announcements soon.
For the week, Friday January 24th through Friday January 31st, March Corn -$.06, May -$.06 ¼, March Soybeans -$.29 ½, May -$.29, March KC Wheat -$.20 ½, July -$.20 ¾, March Chicago Wheat -$.19 ¾, July -$.20 ½, March MPLS Wheat -$.13 ¾, May -$.13 ¾, March Soybean Meal -$7.30/T, May -$6.20/T.
Overnight, grains traded mixed, corn both sides of unchanged while soybeans and wheat again lower. Corn finished steady to 1 higher, soybeans 2 to 3 lower and wheat 1 to 3 lower. U.S. equities are higher with gold and crude lower to start the week. Chines commodities markets opened sharply lower, some hitting limit lower, after the week long Lunar New Year holiday.
The update on coronavirus has over 17,000 infected in two dozen countries, only 11 so far in the U.S. with at least 362 dead in China and 1 confirmation of the first death outside of China in the Philippines over the weekend. The World Health Organization has declared it an international emergency.
USDA announced a private sale of 130,000 MT or 4.8 MBU of soybeans sold to Egypt this morning.
Seasonal weather this week locally with heavy snow in the Rockies towards the end of the week and heavy rain for the weekend and into early next week for the Southeast and East Coast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the east and below normal west with above normal precipitation across most of the U.S., below normal for the West Coast and Florida.
March corn still holding rangebound trade with support at $3.75 ¼ and resistance at $3.94. March soybeans into a new 9-month low, taking out the support around $8.80 from early December and this fall. The contract low from last May is down at $8.41 ½ with resistance up at $9.03. March KC wheat breaking through the higher trendline that starting in December but still showing a higher trend going back to early September with support tested overnight at $4.58 and resistance up at $4.90. March Chicago wheat also holding the higher trend from that started last September with support at $5.45 and resistance at $5.76 ½. March soybean meal into a new contract low overnight at $290 which is the long term support line with resistance at $300.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700