Date: May 8th, 2023
Livestock futures last Friday were mixed but week over week changes were all sharply lower. Lean hogs hit the hardest on Friday, making new contract lows. Live cattle made new recent lows midweek while feeders charged lower again Friday for new recent lows. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade still pulling back. Trade in the South done early in the week mostly at $172 live, $1 lower than the week previous. Trade in the North ranging from $172 to $178 live and mostly $281 dressed, $1 to $3 lower than the week previous.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…June Live Cattle -$3.55, August -$4.27, May Feeders -$8.45, August -$9.30, June Lean Hogs -$7.92, July -$8.25. Choice Boxed Beef -$2.25 at $309.19 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$.55 at $81.87 (3.8:1 Beef to Pork ratio).
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/30/2023 – 5/6/2023
Receipts: Current Week 25,957 Last Reported (4/24) 25,325 Last Year 27,817
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady. Steer calves 4.00-8.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good.. Nice beneficial rains fell across the state, with up to 3 inches in some areas.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 623,000 head, down 1,000 from the week previous and down 38,000 from last year. Beef production is estimated at 508.5 million pounds with year to date down 4.9% from last year while slaughter is down 3.3%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,447,000 head, up 60,000 compared to the week previous and up 42,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production is estimated at 531.2 million pounds with year to date remaining 1.0% higher compared to a year ago and slaughter up 1.6%
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on Choice but higher on Select on moderate demand with 89 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__309.19 -.33
Select Cutout__288.16 +.67
CME Feeder Cattle Index__199.46 -2.07
CME Lean Hog Index__74.53 +.29
Pork Carcass Cutout __81.87 +1.75
June live cattle taking out nearby support and filling the gap last week but able to find support at $161.20 with the next down at $160.10 and resistance at $164. May feeders also breaking through nearby support and finding support around $202 with resistance up at $208.60. June lean hogs failed to take out resistance at $92 last week, completely reversing course and making a new contract low last Friday at $83.25. The next support level is down at $71.50, the contract low for the now expired April contract.
Grains were all higher last Friday locking in gains for the week as well. Wheat was the leader higher with no extension yet on the safe shipping corridor for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and no new vessels authorized. Russia blaming Ukraine a drone attack on the Kremlin was followed by a barrage of attacks on Ukraine’s capital Kiev for the first time in months. Crude oil hit new lows midweek, prices not seen since December 2021, but reversed higher helping support the grain rally to end the week. USDA will update crop progress and conditions Monday afternoon followed by the first official balance sheet for new crop grains on Friday.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed fund money for the trade week ending 5/2 aggressively selling grains and oilseeds. They sold 102.8k corn contracts (net short 118.1k), sold 13.3k Chicago wheat (net short 126.3k), sold 12.8k KC wheat (net short 5.4k) and sold 30.8k soybean contracts (still net long 56.3k).
Weekly closes in the grains… July Corn +$.11 ½, December +$.07, July Soybeans +$.17 ¼, November +$.16 ½, July KC Wheat +$.56 ¾, September +$.50 ¼, July Chicago Wheat +$.26 ½, September +$.26 ½, July MPLS Wheat +$.32 ¼, September +$.33, July Soybean Meal -$6.3/T, December -$8.8/T.
Grains holding steady to higher overnight as new news was light. There was no additional headway made on renewing the safe shipping corridor through the Black Sea over the weekend. Actually, not even a response yet by Russian President Putin and the only comments on Sunday came from Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister repeating that Russia is not satisfied with how their exports are being handled. Outside markets showing equities mixed, US$ lower and energies higher with crude oil $2/barrel higher. Corn finished the overnight 1 lower to 1 higher, soybeans 1 to 6 higher, and wheat 4 to 12 higher.
This week’s forecast is warm and wet for most areas with the heavier rain amounts expected through the Plains. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the country except for normal to below normal temps in the Southwest and Southern Plains with above normal precipitation across the South and below normal in the Northern Plains to the WCB.
July corn down to a new low for the year last week at $5.69 ¼ with support next at $5.60 and now back to test resistance around the $6 level. December also a new low at $5.12 ½ with resistance at $5.50. July soybeans dipped down to $13.92 ¼ last week with the recent low at $13.83 ¾ and back to test resistance at $14.45. The November contract holding support at $12.50 with resistance at $12.87 then $13.02. July KC wheat down to a new low for the year last week at $7.36 ¼ but now above all major moving averages with resistance at the recent highs from the past few months ranging from $8.86 to $8.94 ¼. July Chicago wheat still holding the long-term lower trend with a new recent low last week at $6.03 ¾ and resistance at $6.85. July MPLS wheat hit a new contract low last week at $7.69 with resistance at $8.95. July soybean meal hit a new 5-month low last week at $418 with resistance at $439.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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