Date: May 1st, 2023
Cattle futures finished the week lower but most contracts still held week over week gains while lean hogs were triple digits higher last Friday and $5 higher for the week. Weekly export sales for beef were bearish at only 9,500 MT, but pork sales were a new marketing year high at 54,000 MT helping support the rally in hogs last week. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade off $2 to $5 from the week previous with trade in the South at $173 live and in the North from $176 to $180 live and $280 to $286 dressed. Futures and cash cattle have backed off recently from their new all-time highs, yet fundamentals are still bullish.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…April Live Cattle +$1.20, June +$.95, May Feeders -$1.42, August +$.85, June Lean Hogs +$5.62, July +$4.87. Choice Boxed Beef +$4.84 at $311.44 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$.89 at $81.32 (3.83:1 Beef to Pork ratio).
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/23/2023 – 4/29/2023
Receipts: Current Week 25,325 Last Reported (4/17) 32,208 Last Year 28,643
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Demand remains good for feeder cattle. Steer calves mostly steady, instance to 5.00 lower. Heifer calves 1.00-3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for calves. Finally good rains fell across most of the state giving a slight dent to the drought in the west. More rain is expected.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 620,000 head, down 2,000 from the week previous and down 27,000 from last year. Beef production is estimated at 507.9 million pounds with year to date down 4.8% from last year while slaughter is down 3.2%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,387,000 head, down 67,000 compared to the week previous but up 20,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production is estimated at 518.2 million pounds with year to date up 1.0% compared to a year ago and slaughter up 1.6%
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate demand with 87 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__311.44 +.37
Select Cutout__288.34 -.75
CME Feeder Cattle Index__202.41 +1.10
CME Lean Hog Index__71.49 +.20
Pork Carcass Cutout __81.32 +2.51
June live cattle now the front month with nearby support provided by the 20-day moving average now at $163.70, the contract high from April 13th at $166.27 and the all-time spot month high from that same date when April live cattle hit $177.70. May feeders have support at $207.70, the contract high at $212.77, the next upside target at $216 and the all-time spot high quite a bit further away at $245.20. June lean hogs have bounced over $7 higher from the contract low on April 21st with resistance next at $92.75.
Grains bounced back higher on Friday, mostly due to the first notice day for the nearby May futures contracts. All the damage was done earlier in the week with fresh new lows for corn, Chicago and MPLS wheat. KC Wheat and soybeans tested the recent lows but support is holding so far at those levels. US weather is non-threatening right now along with forecasts in Brazil for their second season corn crop. Traders are certainly spooked that China may be done buying US corn this year as there were two separate export sales cancellations announced by USDA last week. Corn exports are already projected over 600 MBU less than a year ago. Sales and shipments are both behind the pace needed and another decrease by USDA would not surprise me at all later this month.
Weekly closes in the grains… May Corn -$.27 ¼, December -$.20 ¼, May Soybeans -$.39 ¼, November -$.21 ¾, May KC Wheat -$.33 ½, July -$.49 ¼, May Chicago Wheat -$.42, July -$.39 ¼, May MPLS Wheat -$.59, September -$.38 ¾, May Soybean Meal -$10.4/T.
Grains mixed overnight as corn and soybeans try to stabilize but wheat continues to drift lower. May Day is a holiday for many countries around the world so I would expect trade volume to be a little thinner today. EPA announced that E15 blends for the summer may begin nationwide starting June 1st. Egypt reported they are looking to allow wheat imports now from China and India. Weekly export inspections out later this morning and crop progress and conditions after the close this afternoon. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 3 lower, soybeans 1 to 3 higher, and wheat 6 to 9 lower.
This week’s forecasts showing light scattered rains across the majority of the country towards the end of the week and heading into the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps and precipitation for most of the country, below normal temps for the West Coast and below normal moisture for the Upper Midwest and Northeast.
May grains all in delivery now with thin volume and no daily trading limits. All nearby bids now based on July futures. July corn down to a new low for the year on Friday at $5.72 before reversing higher with resistance at $6.01. December also a new low at $5.21 ½ with resistance at $5.50. July soybeans briefly dipped below the $14 level last Friday with the recent low at $13.83 ¾ and resistance around $14.60. The November contract holding support at $12.50 so far, the recent low at $12.47 ½, resistance around $13.00. July KC wheat holding support around $7.62 with resistance at $8.35. July Chicago wheat down to a new low overnight at $6.23 ¼ with resistance at $6.98. July MPLS wheat hit a new contract low last week at $7.84 ¼ with resistance at $8.60. July soybean meal a new recent low last week at $422 with resistance at $439.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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