Date: March 22nd, 2023
Cattle futures finally able to break the recent lower trends and close with modest gains but lean hogs continue to tank hitting new lows again yesterday and the nearby April contract closing in on the contract low. The big question for cattle prices remains whether the focus will be on the bullish fundamentals or the fear mongering and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. banking system.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/20/2023 – Final
This Week: 7,683 Last Week: 7,795 Last Year: 7,024
Compared to last week feeder steers sold steady. Feeder heifers under 475 lbs. sold steady to 4.00 higher. Heavier weights sold steady. Heifer calves weighing 310 lbs. sold at 280. 450 head of heifers weighing 674 lbs. sold for 194.00. 7 weight index steers averaged $203 and 8 weights averaged $179 to $183.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/21/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,279 Last Week: 2,484 Last Year: 1,676
Compared to last week, steer calves were 2.00-5.00 higher and heifers calves were steady to 4.00 lower. Yearlings were not well tested, Demand was good on a light supply. Receipts were lighter than expected due to morning and afternoon rains across the area.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/20/2023 – Final
This Week: 5,671 Last Week: 6,926 Last Year: 8,458
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and calves steady to 3.00 higher, most advance on heavier weights. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Heifer calves steady . Quality plain to average, despite this demand remains good. 7 weight index steers averaged $185 to $192 and 8 weights averaged $178 to $183.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/20/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,049 Last Week: 1,961 Last Year: 2,235
Compared to last week: Feeder Steers 4.00-7.00 higher. Heifers 6.00-9.00 higher. Steer calves had a slightly lower undertone noted. Demand good. Quality mostly attractive.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/20/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,466 Last Week: 3,736 Last Year: 3,596
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 higher with instances of 14.00, except 500 lbs – 600 lbs 2.00 to 7.00 lower. Feeder heifers 2.00 to 5.00 higher with instances of 10.00 except, 500 lbs – 600 lbs, 750 lbs – 800 lbs, 850 lbs – 900 lbs 1.00 to 5.00 lower. Demand for this eye appealing offering of cattle was good.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 127,000 head, matching last week and up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 485,000 head, also matching last week and up 12,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on strong demand with 130 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__279.92 -1.10
Select Cutout__271.55 -2.39
CME Feeder Cattle Index__187.78 -.23
CME Lean Hog Index__78.67 -.88
Pork Carcass Cutout __81.52 -.12
April live cattle sharply lower after the new contract high was hit on March 6th at $166.67. The past 5 trading sessions have been choppy but support found at the 100-day moving average at $161.10 and nearby resistance at $163.10. March feeders starting its decline after the new contract high on March 9th at $194.32 with support at $187.60 which was last week’s low. April lean hogs again a new recent low yesterday at $77 with the contract low down at $75.72 and resistance at $83.90.
Wheat futures took the biggest hit in the grain complex on Tuesday as HRW conditions did show some small improvement last week. European wheat values were also under pressure which spilled over into the U.S. markets mid-morning. The rumor mill is that China is negotiation a massive feed wheat deal with Russia which of course was negative to U.S. wheat futures but could also impact Chinese corn needs in the future as well. Corn was able to finish yesterday with only small losses as private estimates for both Argentina and now Brazil’s production are coming down. Soybeans started the day higher but flipped lower as private estimates for Brazil bean crop were increased and all veg oils were lower. U.S. weather still not cooperating with showers over this next week in the Corn Belt and more snow up in the North.
Grains continued lower overnight as outside markets are quiet awaiting the Fed’s interest rate decision today. News quiet overnight, no wheat deal yet announced between China and Russia and most of the action in grains is spread trading. Equites steady to lower, US$ lower and energies steady. Corn finished the overnight steady to 3 to 7 lower, soybeans 7 to 11 lower and wheat 12 to 16 lower. USDA announced another private corn sale to China this morning of 178,000 MT or 7 MBU. This brings the two-week total up to 2.425 MMT or 95.5 MBU.
Wet weather looks to continue into the middle of next week with the heaviest amounts in the Southeast up into the ECB. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps for the western half of the country with above normal temps for the Southeast and now normal to above normal moisture across the entire country except for a small pocket of below normal in the PNW.
May corn very choppy this month with resistance at $6.38 and support down at $6.06 ¾. December has been trending lower since October with a new recent low overnight at $5.49 ¼, support next at $5.43 and resistance up at $5.64. May soybeans taking out the long-term higher trend last week, a new recent low overnight at $14.58, support next at $14.40 and resistance at $15.00. The November contract also a new recent low overnight at $12.82 ¾, support next around $12.75 and resistance up at $13.43. May KC wheat recent low on March 10th at $7.72 ½ providing support with a new recent high yesterday before the reversal lower at $8.43. May Chicago wheat a new recent low on March 10th at $6.61 with resistance at $7.12 ½. May MPLS wheat a new contract low on March 10th at $8.14 with resistance around $8.60. May soybean meal hit a new contract high on March 7th at $498 down to a new recent low overnight at $455.30 and support next around $440.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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