Date: March 13th, 2023
Cattle futures were lower on Friday and lean hogs higher. For the week, live cattle lower while feeders and lean hogs were higher. Equities were sharply lower last week, DOW down over 1700 points last week, which provided some of the pressure on fats. Cash fed cattle trade was steady in the South last week at $165 live after 5 consecutive weeks of higher prices. Trade in the North was steady to $3 higher at $165 to $166 live and $265 to $268.50 dressed.
Weekly closes, Friday, March 3rd to Friday, March 10th…April Live Cattle -$1.15, June -$2.02, March Feeder Cattle +$1.47, April +$1.62, August +$1.85, April Lean Hogs +$2.90, June +2.15. Boxed Beef, Choice -$4.41 @ $284.91, Select -$5.32 @ $271.54, Pork Carcass Cutout +$2.23 @ $87.80.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/5/2023 – 3/11/2023
Total Receipts: Current Week 31,010 Last Report (2/27/23) 28,906 Last Year 36,338
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-4.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00-4.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle. Stocker cattle sold 5.00-7.00 higher with grass accounts continuing active this week. Steer calves sold 3.00-6.00 higher. Heifer calves sold steady to 1.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 634,000 head, up 5,000 from the week previous but down 3,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 522.1 million pounds. Year to date beef production down 4.3% vs. last year and slaughter down 2.5%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,497,000 head, down 15,000 from the week previous but up 25,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 539.8 million pounds. Year to date pork production up 0.7% compared to last year with slaughter up 1.4%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice but sharply lower Select on moderate demand with 96 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__284.91 +.31
Select Cutout__271.54 -4.51
CME Feeder Cattle Index__188.83 +.11
CME Lean Hog Index__79.62 +.23
Pork Carcass Cutout __87.80 -.59
April live cattle holding the long term higher trend. The contract high was hit last Monday at $166.67 with support at $163.50 and the next upside target at $167.50 which was the contract high and expiration for the February contract. March feeders showing a sharply higher trend over the past two months with a new contract high on Thursday at $194.32 and support around $190. All contracts April forward continue to hit new contract highs almost daily going back to February 23rd. April lean hogs remain very choppy, breaking the recent lower trend and currently in the middle to upper end of the range traded over this past two months from $81.27 to $89.87.
Grains were mixed on Friday with wheat finishing sharply higher, soybeans lower and corn holding small gains. All made new recent lows on Friday, but wheat charts showing a key reversal higher. The US$ was sharply lower after rallying most of the week has the FED is looking to continue to increase interest rates which will strengthen the US$ and put pressure on US Ag exports. The Southern Plains remain mostly dry in the forecasts. Argentine forecasts remain hot and dry and private estimates continue to push production estimates lower for both soybeans and corn. USDA updated production estimates last week at 40 MMT for corn and 33 MMT for soybeans while private estimates are down to 35 MMT for corn and 25 MMT for beans. Brazil’s soybean crop now over 50% harvested and 2nd crop corn over 80% planted, but both still running around 10% behind a year ago.
Weekly closes, Friday, March 3rd to Friday, March 10th…May corn -$.22 ½, December -$.13 ¼, May soybeans -$.11 ¾, November -$.15 ½, May KC wheat -$.18, July -$.19 ¾, May Chicago wheat -$.29 ½, July -$.26 ¾, May MPLS wheat -$.48 ¼, September -$.40.
Grains did start the overnight higher but gains faded into the morning break. Outside markets show equities lower, US$ lower and energies lower with crude down over $3/barrel. Ag specific news fairly light, the top headline being the continued negotiations to extend the safe shipping corridor in the Black Sea that is set to expire on the 18th. The financial news leading all as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank now under control by federal regulators and many large banks seeing massive declines in stock values this morning. Corn finished the overnight 4 to 8 lower, soybeans 7 to 9 lower and wheat 7 to 11 lower.
The entire U.S. should get some kind of precipitation this week with the heaviest amounts on the West Coast and in the Southeast. The 6–10-day outlook showing below normal temps across the entire country with above normal moisture except for below normal moisture around the Great Lakes.
May corn down to a new recent low on Friday at $6.06 ¾ with support next at $6.00 and resistance up around $6.40. December has been trending lower since October, sharply lower over the past few weeks, with a new recent low on Friday at $5.50 ¾, support next at $5.43 and resistance up at $5.67. May soybeans still look the best with a long term higher trend, support at $14.77 ¾, resistance at $15.49 ¾ and the contract high at $15.67 ½. The November contract remains rangebound with support at $13.45 and resistance up at $14.02. May KC wheat another new recent low on Friday at $7.72 ½ before the reversal higher with resistance at $8.32 then up around $9. May Chicago wheat also a new recent low on Friday at $6.61 with resistance at $7.08. May MPLS wheat a new contract low on Friday at $8.14 with resistance at $8.79.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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