Date: March 7th, 2023
Cattle futures higher to begin the week, feeders the leader finishing mostly $2+ higher while lean hogs were steady to lower on Monday. March feeders closing in a new contract high as April forward contracts continue to make new contract highs. October forward now over $220 as the front month has not been above $200 since September 2015 and the all time spot high was back in October 2014 at $245.20. Some live cattle contracts also hit new contract highs yesterday. Packers enter this week will a little more inventory but are still looking at tight supplies moving forward with negotiated cash trade most likely holding off again until later in the week.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 03/04/2023
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 209,200 42,300 41,800 293,300
Last Week: 188,200 61,700 6,000 255,900
Year Ago: 239,700 32,700 12,600 285,000
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold 2.00 to 6.00 higher. Good to very good demand for all weights of steers and heifers, but by far the best demand is for a light fleshed steer to make a yearling out of. The weather moderated this week and allowed cattle producers to get their stock shipped to town and buyers were ready and anxious to get them bought.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/6/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,192 Last Week: 6,932 Last Year: 9,192
Compared to last week feeder steers under 475 lbs. traded steady. Weights over 475 lbs. traded 2.00-9.00 higher with the most increase on 5-6 weight steers. Feeder heifers under 575 lbs. traded 5.00-11.00 higher with heavier weights steady to 3.00 higher. Supply was heavy with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $195 and 8 weights averaged $182.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/6/2023 – Prelim
This Week: 10,700 Last Week: 8,082 Last Year: 10,627
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-5.00 higher, stocker steers up to 8.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 higher. Steer calves 1.00-5.00 higher, instance to 20.00 higher on 400-500 lbs. Heifer calves mostly steady to 3.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $188 and 8 weights averaged $185.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/6/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,113 Last Week: 1,685 Last Year: 1,854
Compared to last week: Steers mostly steady to 4.00 higher. Heifers 2.00-3.00 higher. Demand good. Quality good. Slaughter cows4.00- 6.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 2.00 higher.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/6/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,795 Last Week: 3,692 Last Year: 3,433
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00 to 5.00 higher with instance of 14.00 except, 400 lbs – 450 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers 2.00 to 4.00 higher with instances of 7.00, except 500 lbs – 600 lbs and 900 lbs – 950 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Demand for this eye catching offering of green cattle was good. Little cattle were not as sought after this week as last. Green cattle with shots and weaned for a few months drew the most attention from buyers. 7 weight steers were the hottest sought after group of cattle. 7 weight index steers averaged $202 and 8 weights averaged $187 to $192.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 125,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 469,000 head, down 13,000 compared to a week ago but up 3,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday again higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate demand with 94 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__290.20 +.88
Select Cutout__276.47 -.39
CME Feeder Cattle Index__187.21 +1.78
CME Lean Hog Index__78.91 +.20
Pork Carcass Cutout __87.33 +1.76
April live cattle up to a new contract high on Monday at $166.67 with support at $163.50 and the next upside target at $167.50 which was the contract high and expiration for the February contract. March feeders showing a sharply higher trend over the past two months with support at $187.70 and only $.25 away from a new contract high on Monday which was hit back on August 18th at $192.62. Again, all contracts April forward continue to hit new contract highs almost daily going back to February 23rd. April lean hogs remain very choppy, currently in the middle to lower end of the range traded over this past two months from $81.27 to $89.87.
Grains were again mixed on Monday, soybeans leading the way higher, wheat the leader lower and corn caught in between. More chatter on Argentina’s crops still getting worse as some push the soybean production below 30 MMT, closing in on ½ crop compared to early expectations. Wheat under pressure as talks improve to renew the Black Sea safe shipping corridor.
Weekly export inspections for the week ending March 2nd were a bit disappointing for soybeans and wheat, yet soybean shipments still above the weekly average needed to meet the current USDA estimate. Soybean inspections totaled 19.9 MBU with the average needed at 14.4 MBU. Wheat inspections dipped down to only 9.9 MBU with the average needed per week at 13.9 MBU. Corn inspections picked up at 35.4 MBU, yet still below the average needed per week now at 49 MBU. Grain sorghum inspections totaled 2.8 MBU with China taking another cargo. With half the marketing year now behind us, corn and grain sorghum shipments marketing year to date are only up 1/3 the total export estimate by USDA. Mexico was the top destination for both corn and wheat while China remains the top destination for soybeans.
Grains quietly mixed overnight except for MPLS wheat breaking into new lows. Chicago wheat did as well but finished the overnight steady and KC Wheat 1 to 2 higher. KS wheat conditions updated yesterday, down another 2 points to 17% G/E and P/VP up another 2 points to now 53%. Corn and beans traded both sides of unchanged overnight but finished 1 to 4 lower. Outside markets show equities higher, US$ higher and energies lower with crude down $.50/barrel.
USDA will update domestic demand and world supply and demand on Wednesday morning. The most influential numbers the markets are waiting for are updates on both Argentina and Brazil corn and soybean production estimates. I would expect to see continued reduction of both Argentina’s crops while USDA will most likely leave Brazil unchanged. The other market mover could be a decrease in both U.S. corn and grain sorghum exports as both sales and shipments are way behind. The average pre report trade guesses are as follows…
U.S. soybean stocks at 220 MBU vs. 225 MBU last month
Brazil soy production at 152.91 MMT vs. 153.0 MMT last month
Argentina soy production at 36.65 MMT vs. 41.0 MMT last month
World soy stocks at 100.3 MMT vs. 102.0 MMT last month
U.S. corn stocks at 1.308 BBU vs. 1.267 last month
Brazil corn production at 124.86 MMT vs. 125.0 MMT last month
Argentina corn production at 43.41 MMT vs. 47.0 MMT last month
World corn stocks at 293.2 MMT vs. 295.3 MMT last month
U.S. wheat stocks at 573 MBU vs. 568 MBU last month
World wheat stocks at 269.4 MMT vs. 269.3 MMT last month
This week looks wet from Eastern KS down into OK and over into MO then heavy rains for the Southeast to end the week. The 6–10-day outlook showing below normal temps across the country except for a pocket of above normal for the Southwest and above normal moisture for the western half of the U.S. and Southeast with below normal moisture for the Midwest up into the Great Lakes and Northeast.
May corn down to a new recent low last week at $6.22 ¼ with support next at $6.15 and resistance up around $6.70. December has been trending lower since October with a new recent low last week at the price support line at $5.64, resistance up at $5.98. May soybeans down to a new recent low last week at $14.77 ¾, recovering since and back within striking distance of testing the resistance and recent high at $15.49 ¾. The November contract remains rangebound with last week’s low at $13.45, support down at $13.30 from late January and resistance up at $14.02. May KC wheat broke through the $8 support level on Monday, a new recent low again this morning at $7.94, the next downside target around $7.40 and resistance at $8.59. May Chicago wheat took out the $7 support level on Monday, a new recent low again overnight at $6.89 ½, support next down at $6.70 and resistance up around $7.50. May MPLS wheat breaking nearby support overnight with a new recent low at $8.51 ¾, the contract low is at $8.42 ¼ and resistance at $9.04.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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