Date: February 28th, 2023
Livestock futures mixed to begin the week and feeders the only ones able to hold gains into the close with corn lower. It took longer than expected, especially following a bullish cattle on feed report last Friday, but feeders slowly crept higher yesterday. Live cattle lost ground into the close although fundamentals remain supportive with strong beef demand and tight slaughter ready supplies.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 02/25/2023
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 188,200 61,700 6,000 255,900
Last Week: 198,900 43,000 43,400 285,300
Year Ago: 170,600 34,100 48,800 253,500
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 4.00 higher. The supply of feeders was moderate and demand remains good to very good. With spring around the corner, many producers jumped into the market this week to finish or started to buy grass cattle and replacement heifers for summer turnout.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/27/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,932 Last Week: 9,219 Last Year: 4,777
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to 4.00 higher. Supply was moderate with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $190-$192 and 8 weights averaged $179-$181.50.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/27/2023 – Prelim
This Week: 8,200 Last Week: 8,288 Last Year: 5,458
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00-5.00 higher. Steer calves mostly steady. Heifer calves 3.00-5.00 higher, 400-500 lbs. up to 15.00 higher. Demand is good. Quality is above average. 7 weight index steers averaged $189 to $191 and 8 weights averaged $176 to $180.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/27/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,692 Last Week: 6,461 Last Year: 4,380
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00 to 4.00 higher with instances of 20.00, except 600 lbs – 700 lbs steady to 1.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher with instances of 17.00, except 650 lbs – 700 lbs 6.00 to 9.00 lower. Demand for this nice offering of eye appealing cattle was good. 7 weight index steers averaged $191 and 8 weights averaged $183 to $185.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 124,000 head, up 20,000 from last week but down 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 482,000 head, matching a week ago and up 30,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday higher on weak demand with only 69 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__288.34 +1.06
Select Cutout__279.25 +2.17
CME Feeder Cattle Index__182.24 -.53
CME Lean Hog Index__78.22 +.73
Pork Carcass Cutout __85.94 +.59
February live cattle expire later today with the contract high at $165.67 from last Friday. April will become the front month, also hitting a new contract high on Friday at $166.40 and support down around $164. October 2014 was the all-time spot high for live cattle at $171.97. March feeders took out nearby resistance late last week, making a new recent high yesterday at $190.17 and support down at $185.50. The contract high is up at $192.62. April lean hogs remain very choppy with a range over this past month from $81.27 to last week’s recent high at $89.87.
Grains again under pressure to begin the week, and again led lower by the wheat markets. It has only taken 5 days for all the gains made over the past month to be taken out. Weaker world values and a stronger US$ providing the most pressure recently. Russia still delaying the renewal of the safe shipping corridor in the Black Sea, U.S. winter wheat conditions still deteriorating and futures very oversold right now. Corn breaking into new recent lows and soybeans looking to test the long term higher trendline.
U.S. weekly export inspections for the week ending February 23rd were a bit disappointing for both soybeans and corn. Soybean inspections totaled only 25.4 MBU, the first below average total this marketing year. China was still the #1 destination, but only taking 13.6 MBU followed by Mexico and Germany. Year to date bean inspections slipped a point to now 3% ahead of last year’s pace. Corn inspections totaled 22.5 MBU, which has been the average lately, but disappointing to see that total not increase as soybeans fell off. Year to date inspections are now down 38% from last year and only 32% of the total export estimate has been shipped. The top three destinations were Mexico, Colombia and Japan. Wheat inspections were impressive at 21.7 MBU with the average needed per week down at 13.7 MBU. Iraq was the #1 destination taking 2 cargoes followed by at least a cargo each for Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines. Year to date still remains on pace down 2% from a year ago. Grain sorghum inspections jumped to 4.2 MBU with China taking 2 cargoes this past week. Year to date is still down 78% vs. a year ago and only 31% of the total export estimate has been shipped to date.
Grains again lower overnight but fairly quiet for corn and wheat, led this time by soybeans. Today is first notice day for March grain contracts as the daily limits are removed and spreads could get a little crazy until expiration. Deliveries were made against corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat. Outside markets show equities higher, US$ steady to lower and energies higher with crude up $1.80/barrel. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 4 lower, soybeans 10 to 18 lower and wheat 2 to 7 lower.
Much below normal temps continue this week out West with another round of storms bringing mixed precip for the Plains later this week which could potentially bring heavy rains to the Southeast. The 6–10-day outlook showing above normal temps for the South and below normal out West with above normal precipitation across most of the country except for below normal moisture for the East Coast.
March corn again taking out nearby support and into a new recent early Tuesday morning at $6.36 ¾ with support next at $6.35 and strong resistance at $6.88. March soybeans holding the long-term higher trend but also a new recent low this morning with support at $14.80 and resistance at $15.29 then $15.55. March KC wheat again taking out most of the past month’s gains with support at $8.11 and resistance at $8.80. March Chicago wheat even worse, breaking into new lows and below the $7 support level now with the next down at $6.70. March MPLS wheat also into new lows with support next at $8.50. March soybean meal hit a new contract high on February 13th at $508.20, the spot high from August the next upside target at $531.20 and now support down at $479.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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