Date: December 19th, 2022
Morning Ag Markets – Matt Hines
Almost all livestock futures finishing higher last Friday from supportive fundamentals during the week. Live cattle supported by sharply higher beef prices and steady to higher cash fed cattle trade. Live trade in the Southern Plains steady with the week previous at $155 while trade in the North steady to $3 higher from $155 to $158 live and $247 to $248 dressed. Feeders higher on Friday but still finished slightly lower week over week with corn choppy but holding higher prices last week. Lean hogs sharply higher on Friday securing week over week gains with a technical bounce off nearby support levels and higher pork and cash to end the week.
For the week, Friday December 9th through Friday December 16th, December Live Cattle +$1.37, February +$.22, January Feeder Cattle -$.15, March -$.40, February Lean Hogs +$1.77, April +$1.72. Boxed Beef, Choice +$13.45 @ $262.93, Select +$14.19 @ $235.45, Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.12 @ $87.44.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/11/2022 – 12/17/2022
Current Week: 35,303 Last Report 12/5/22: 44,465 Last Year: 45,864
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady. Feeder heifers steady, instance to 3.00 higher on 7 weights. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Steer calves steady, except for 3 weights which sold 10.00-15.00 higher. Heifer calves sold 1.00-5.00 higher. Recent rains and sunshine has improved wheat pasture some, making light weight cattle the optimum for turn out.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 629,000 head, down 23,000 from the week previous and down 29,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 526.4 million pounds with year to date slipping to +1.2% vs. last year and slaughter +1.3%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,596,000 head, up 26,000 compared to the week previous but down 59,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 560.6 million pounds with year to date now -2.4% compared to a year ago and slaughter -2.8%.
Boxed beef cutout values sharply higher on Friday on moderate to weak demand with 71 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__262.83 +8.53
Select Cutout__235.45 +6.94
CME Feeder Cattle Index__179.51 +.01
CME Lean Hog Index__81.55 -.33
Pork Carcass Cutout Values __87.44 +1.95
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__80.67 -.77, 6,312 head
December live cattle still holding the long-term higher trend with a new contract high already this morning at $155.44 and support down at $153.40. January feeders also trending higher with resistance around $185 and support at $182.70 then $180.30. February lean hogs down to a new recent low last week at $81.52 before the reversal higher with resistance around $87.
Grains mixed last Friday and throughout the week. South American weather most certainly getting the most attention, specifically Argentina as recent rains provided early pressure on the soy complex but extended forecasts moved back to hot and dry which catapulted soybeans higher. The other headlines trading remains the war in Ukraine as the port of Odessa was again hit by Russian missiles which added some risk premium early in the week. Overall, weaker world wheat values and U.S. still overpriced and in desperate need to spur export demand. Corn remains flat with old crop hanging around the $6.50 level and new crop around $6. Basis levels have backed off for nearby shipments as we enter the end of the year/beginning of the New Year typical heavier cash grain movement timeframe.
For the week, Friday December 9th through Friday December 16th, March Corn +$.09, May +$.08 ¼, January Soybeans -$.03 ¾, March -$.04 ½, March KC Wheat +$.11, July +$.09 ¾, March Chicago Wheat +$.19 ¼, July +$.16 ¼, March MPLS Wheat +$.08, May +$.04 ¾, January Soybean Meal -$8.60/T, March -$8.40/T.
A quiet, steady to lower trading for the grains overnight. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 3 higher, soybeans 4 to 8 lower and wheat steady to 4 lower. Equites pointing higher this morning with the US$ weaker and crude higher. This is the last full week of trading as the markets will be closed next Sunday night and Monday for Christmas.
USDA announced a private sale of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations along with a private sale of 141,000 MT or 5.55 MBU of corn for delivery to Mexico.
Snow across the area locally to start the week. The big story will be the much below normal temps and high winds sweeping across the Midwest later this week bringing dangerous wind chills. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps for the eastern half of the country and above normal temps out West with above normal moisture in the PNW and below normal across the southern half the U.S.
March corn holding a month and a half long lower trend with support at $6.35 and resistance at $6.60. January soybeans holding the long-term higher trend with support at $14.25 and resistance at $14.92. March KC wheat holding a lower trend with the recent low at $8.21 ¾ and resistance at $8.80. March Chicago wheat recent low at $7.23 ½ and resistance at $7.70. March MPLS wheat has support down at $8.90 and resistance at $9.32. January Soybean Meal a new contract high on December 9th at $474.4 now breaking nearby support this morning at $448.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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