Date: March 23rd, 2022
All Ag markets mixed yesterday, trading both sides of unchanged, yet less wild moves than previous sessions. Cattle futures did end up with mild losses yesterday, only the nearby feeder contract able to hold small gains. Lean hogs were higher for all expect the nearby April contract. Cash prices and pork values sharply higher yesterday. Live cattle futures waiting for cash trade to develop as they led the way higher last week resulting in mostly steady cash fed cattle trade. Asking prices are again $1 to $2 higher so far this week. We also have a Cattle on Feed report this Friday after the close. The early trade estimates looking for on feed numbers around 1% higher than a year ago and placements ranging from 4% to 9% higher.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/21/2022
This Week: 8,458 Last Week: 8,812 Last Year: 10,199
Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers unevenly steady. Steer and heifer calves lightly tested, unevenly steady. Quality average to attractive. Demand moderate to good. 7 weight index steers averaging $151-$161 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $144-$149.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/21/2022
This Week: 7,024 Last Week: 5,604 Last Year: 5,898
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 3.00- 10.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 575 lbs. traded 5.00-13.00 higher with heavier weights trading steady. 7 weight index steers averaging $158-$167 with the 8 weight index steers averaging $153.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/21/2022
This Week: 3,596 Last Week: 4,502 Last Year: 2,938
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00 to 5.00 lower, except 600lbs – 650lbs, 750lbs – 800lbs, 950lbs -1000lbs, 1000lbs – 1050lbs 2.00 to 5.00 higher, feeder heifers 1.00 to 4.00 higher, except 700lbs – 750lbs, 900lbs – 950lbs steady to 4.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaging $167-$171 with the 8 weight index steers averaging $149-$154.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/22/2022
This Week: 1,676 Last Week: 2,815 Last Year: 2,712
Compared to last week, feeder steers traded mostly steady to 2.00 higher with spots of lightweight steer calves trading up to 10.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded unevenly steady from 1.00 higher to 2.00 lower on a light test.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 123,000 head, down 2,000 from last week but up 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 479,000 head, matching last week but down 11,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s hog slaughter again revised lower to 468,000 head.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on Choice but lower on Select on good demand with 125 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__259.97 +1.47
Select Cutout__251.89 -.61
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.13 +.20
CME Lean Hog Index__101.77 -.03
Pork Carcass Cutout __106.71 +5.10
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 107.68 +5.59 on 10,410 head
April live cattle chopping sideways over the past week but still holding a higher trend since bottoming out back on March 4th with nearby support around $139 and resistance at $141.50. March feeders still stuck in the lower end of recent trading with support at $156 and resistance at $158. Deferred contracts look better with a higher trend holding from the new recent lows and about half the loss from a month ago gained back. The August contract has support at $178 with resistance at $181.65. April lean hogs consolidating recently between $99 and $104 after the recent pull back from the contact high back at $112.85 back on February 23rd. The June contract though is holding a two-week long higher trend with a new contract high last week at $122 and support around $116.
Early large gains for the grains, led again by the wheat markets, were pulled back by mid-morning as the pendulum continues to swing from escalation to de-escalation in Ukraine. Specifically the continued reports of air strikes and artillery usage by Russia to reports that spin out now more frequently that Ukraine is leaning more towards a compromise. Some would like to talk about the very beneficial moisture across most of the Southern Plains for drop from the highs yesterday. I would point out that the new crop and deferred months held up better than the nearby though. I would also point out that all outside markets (equities, energies and US$) were mixed and trading both sides of unchanged throughout the day right along with the grains and livestock. All markets will continue to watch and trade the headlines.
Private estimates starting to roll out ahead of next Thursday’s USDA Acreage Intentions report. Most are in the ball park from 91 to 92.5 million acres of corn to be planted this spring and 88 to 89 million acres of soybeans. This would be a reduction of 1 to 2 million acres of corn from a year ago and an increase of like amount to soybeans acreage. Again, these are from survey results from the beginning of March when November soybeans were trading 2.36:1 to corn. That spread closed yesterday at 2.23:1 as soybeans have traded more of a sideways pattern and December corn continues to make new contract highs. Yes the market is encouraging more corn aces now. Yes input costs continue to remain at historically high prices.
Overnight, energies, metals, US$ and grains higher as equities point lower. I really can’t point to any specific new news overnight. The #1 topic for the grains continues to be Ukraine with Black Sea exports still closed off and their spring planting potential. Chinese soybean meal into new all-time highs as crush margins continue to improve. World veg oils also continue to make new highs. No daily export sales announced by USDA this morning. Corn finished the overnight 4 to 5 higher, soybeans 8 to 15 higher and wheat 12 to 16 higher.
Honestly the U.S. weather should be a bit bearish for the grain markets with good moisture throughout the Southern Plains over this past week which have stretched up into the Corn Belt. The South experiencing some violent spring storms and tornadoes already this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to mostly above normal temps with below normal only for the Northeast and above normal moisture except for a small pocket of below normal in TX.
May corn new contract high on March 4th at $7.82 ¾ with nearby support at $7.28 and roughly a $.30 trading range the past 2 weeks. The December contract continues to trend higher with a new contract high again overnight at $6.74 ¾ and nearby support at $6.29. May soybeans hit a new contract high back on February 24th at $17.59 ¼, closing in on the all-time nearby high from 2012 at $17.94 ¾. Support is down around $16.40. The November contract also hit a new contract high on the 24th at $15.55 with support around $14.50. May KC wheat a new contract high on March 7th at $12.99 ½. The all-time spot high from 2008 up at $13.84 ¾. The July contract up to a new contract high $12.59 on March 7th with support at $10.77. May Chicago wheat a new contract high on March 8th at $13.63 ½ with the expired March contract up to $14.25 ¼, the new all-time spot high. The July contract hit a new contract high that day as well at $12.78 ¼ with support at $10.67. May Mpls wheat a new contract high on March 8th at $12.11 ¾ with support at $10.80. May Soybean Meal a new contract high last Monday at $491.60 and support down at $468.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336