Date: December 12th, 2022
Cattle futures higher last Friday and mixed for the week as hogs were lower. Cash fed cattle trade steady to $2 lower than the week previous in TX at $153 to $155 and steady to $1 higher in KS from $155 to $156 live. Trade in the North $1 to $2 lower at $156 live and $247 dressed.
USDA made a few changes on the meats balance sheets on Friday. Beef production for 2022 increased by 70 million pounds and exports for both this year and next increased by 20 million pounds. Pork production for 2022 decreased by another 60 million pounds and exports reduced by 75 million pounds.
For the week, Friday December 2nd through Friday December 9th, December Live Cattle +$.32, February -$.32, January Feeder Cattle +$1.47, March -$.17, December Lean Hogs -$.85, February -$6.42. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.00 @ $248.93, Select -$3.30 @ $221.26, Pork Carcass Cutout -$.38 @ $88.56.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/4/2022 – 12/10/2022
Current Week: 44,465 Last Report 11/28/22: 34,682 Last Year: 51,902
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 4.00 higher and steer calves were 10.00-1500 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00-6.00 higher and heifer calves 6.00-10.00 higher. Demand moderate to good. Numbers continue to move thru area auctions as winter feed supplier demand a concern.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 652,000 head, down 11,000 from the week previous and down 16,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 544.5 million pounds with year to date remaining +1.4% vs. last year and slaughter +1.5%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,572,000 head, down 18,000 compared to the week previous and down 4,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 553.9 million pounds with year to date now -2.8% compared to a year ago yet slaughter improved to -2.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate demand with 98 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__248.93 +1.65
Select Cutout__221.26 +.71
CME Feeder Cattle Index__179.22 -.01
CME Lean Hog Index__81.99 -.48
Pork Carcass Cutout Values __88.56 +3.59
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__83.07 +1.96, 10,209 head
December live cattle still holding the long-term higher trend with the contract high on November 23rd at $154.72, support down at last week’s low at $151.22. January feeders also trending higher with a new recent high last Friday at $184.90, resistance next at $185.40 and support down at $180.30. December lean hogs expire this Wednesday and look to be comfortable in the $83.50 to $80.50 range. The February contract tested resistance again last Monday at $92 but was sharply lower the rest of the week and into a new recent low at $83.10 and support next down at $81.
Grains were mixed on Friday as the crop report did little to influence the trade. Throughout the week, wheat remained the leader lower and soybeans the leader higher as corn remains stuck in between the two. U.S. wheat and soybean balance sheets were left unchanged but both grain sorghum and corn exports were reduced as sales continue be light. USDA did not change South America corn or soybean production estimates yet cut Argentine wheat production by 3 MMT. Australia’s wheat production estimate increased by more than 2 MMT as it looks to be a record crop and could further hinder U.S. wheat exports into SE Asia. World soybean stocks were reduced around ½ MMT, no major changes. It wouldn’t surprise me to see USDA cut Chinese imports next month though as October was down 19% and November down 14% compared to a year ago. World corn stocks were reduced by 2.36 MMT and production down 6.5 MMT from cuts to Ukraine, Russia and EU.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report showed managed fund money for the trade week ending 12/6 aggressively selling grains and buyers of meal. They sold 71.4k corn contracts (net long 120.2k), sold 9.3k Chicago Wheat (net short -63.3k), sold 7.4k KC wheat (net long 9.7k), sold 2.6k soybeans (net long 99.4k) and bought 23.6k meal (net long 98.5k).
For the week, Friday December 2nd through Friday December 9th, March Corn -$.02 ¼, May -$.02, January Soybeans +$.45 ¼, March +$.41 ¾, March KC Wheat -$.37 ¾, May -$.38, March Chicago Wheat -$.26 ¾, May -$.28 ½, March MPLS Wheat -$.19 ¾, May -$.18 ¾, January Soybean Meal +$47.50/T, March +$45.80/T.
Grains mixed overnight, reversing from last week’s trading with soybeans the leader lower and wheat the leader higher. Better rains than expected fell over the weekend in Argentina. China reporting their soybean production up over 24% compared to last year. It could also just be a needed pullback after meal has run $70/T higher the past two weeks and January soybeans $.67 higher. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 4 higher, soybeans 15 to 21 lower, wheat 6 to 12 higher and meal $9/T lower. Equites pointing higher this morning as the US$ and crude trade both sides of unchanged.
An inch plus of rain expected over the next few days for the eastern half of the U.S. with the heaviest amounts expected in the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps across the entire country except a small area in the Northeast with below normal moisture for the PNW, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic and above normal moisture for the rest of the U.S.
March corn holding a month-long lower trend with support at $6.38 and resistance at $6.60. January soybeans holding the long-term higher trend with a new recent high last Friday at $14.92 ¾ which is near the top end of the range traded since July and support down at $14.25. March KC wheat holding a lower trend with a new recent low last week at $8.21 ¾, the low from August down at $8.11 ¾ and resistance at $8.77. March Chicago wheat holding a steeper lower trend, a new low for the year last week at $7.23 ½ and resistance at $8.00. The soon to expire December contract down to $7.02 ½ last week with the spot price not below the $7 level since September of 2021. March MPLS wheat a new recent low last week at $8.90, the low from August down at $8.75 ¾ and resistance at $9.45. January Soybean Meal a new contract high last week at $474.4, the spot high from August at $531.2 and nearby support around $440.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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