Date: November 25th, 2020
Cattle futures continued higher yesterday after their reversal higher on Monday, lean hogs were mixed though. Early asking prices continue to move higher for fed cattle this week as futures and beef prices press higher, Choice +$35 so far this month. Early and light volume trade did develop yesterday at steady money in IA, $110 live and $172 dressed. I would hope feeders could pull at least $112 live this week.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/23/2020
Total Receipts: 10,922 Last Week: 9,010 Last Year: 13,045
Compared to last week, steer calves and yearling steers under 750 lbs steady, steers over 750 lbs steady to 5.00 higher, heifers steady, except heifer calves under 500 lbs and yearling heifers over 800 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Demand moderate to mostly good, supply heavy.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/23/2020
Total Receipts: 10,094 Last Week: 13,829 Last Year: 5,483
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 3.00-5.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves are trading 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand moderate, good for long weaned calves ready to be grazing immediately. Wheat pastures across the trade area are in good condition and have producers eager to turn out calves.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/23/2020
Total Receipts: 2,832 Last Week: 5,314 Last Year: 3,104
Compared to last week: Steers 7.00-9.00 lower. Heifers 3.00 lower, both in a light test. Demand good. Quality average. Slaughter cows steady to 2.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 2.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 13,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 497,000 head, up 4,000 compared to last week and up 7,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values sharply higher again on Tuesday on strong demand with 161 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__244.30 +2.70
Select Cutout__219.71 +2.23
CME Feeder Index__137.12 +.17
CME Lean Hog Index__67.83 -.31 from 11/20
Pork Carcass Cutout__77.58 -.19
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__57.52 -.38
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__57.87 -.46
December live cattle breaking through nearby resistance yesterday with the next up at the November high at $112.70 and support from $109.50 to $110.00. January feeders trying to break the lower trend that has been in place this month with resistance at $141.50 and support around $135. December lean hogs holding a lower trend since October with support tested last week at $63.50 then down around $62 and resistance up at $67.50.
Grains started yesterday in the red but proceeded to come back actually led by the wheat markets. Corn and soybeans came back to near steady with deferred contracts posting small gains. Charts were looking a bit bearish as new contract highs for corn and soybeans were hit in the overnight trade Monday without any follow through or desire to test those recent highs. Export news has been quiet recently, weekly sales will not be released by USDA until this Friday.
A quieter start for all markets with equites a little softer overnight, energies slightly higher and grains mixed. Corn finished the overnight steady to 1 lower, soybeans 1 lower to 3 higher and wheat steady to 4 higher.
Markets are open normal hours today, closed on Thursday with no overnight trading leading to an old fashioned hard open Friday morning and closing at noon.
Chinese customs data shows 3.4 MMT or 125 MBU of U.S. soybeans during October 2020, that is up +196% from October 2019. October imports of Brazil soybeans by China was 4.233 MMT or 155.5 MBU, up +11.5% over October 2019 and about half of the imported amount from September. There are some rumors spreading that China will be cancelling some soybean purchases for the December/January time period based on suggestions that Chinese demand is slowing and a steep collapse in crush margins. Again with China, watch what they do not what they say.
No USDA announced daily sales again this morning, the only so far this week was corn for unknown destinations on Monday. Taiwan reported purchased 82,220 MT or 3 MBU of U.S. milling wheat overnight.
Dry over most of Brazil again overnight with Buenos Aires, Argentina picking up ¼ to ½“. Heavy rains still in the forecast for the Southeast later this week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps north and west and below normal in the Southeast with above normal moisture for the East Coast and below normal for the rest of the country.
December corn new contract high at $4.29 ¾. Nearby resistance from the continuous weekly chart next at $4.32 then around $4.50 with support at $4.17 then $4.09. January soybeans new contract high at $12 with the spike high from June 2016 at $12.08 ½. Nearby support is at $11.38. December KC wheat chopping sideways the past couple months with support at $5.32 and resistance at $5.70. December Chicago has held a higher trend since late June with support at $5.90 and resistance at $6.38.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700