Date: October 12th, 2022
Feeder cattle losses a bit overdone on Monday as all was gained back on Tuesday with corn only off a nickel. Live cattle held $1 gains and the nearby October contract hit a new recent high with the September high now the next target at $146.77 then the contract high at $147.50. Cash fed cattle trade so far this week only light volume in the North at $146 live.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/10/2022 – Final
This Week: 8,521 Last Week: 8,346 Last Year: 7,410
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00 to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers unevenly steady. Demand moderate to good. Quality mostly average. Steer calves unevenly steady. Heifer calves 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Demand moderate for calves. Some of the region received much needed moisture over the weekend with more in the forecast early this week. 7 weight index steers averaged $170-$171 and 8 weight index steers averaged $159-$169.
Tri-State Livestock Auction – McCook, NE
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/10/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,585 Last Week: 1,370 Last Year: 2,888
Compared to last week, steers steady to 12.00 higher, heifers steady to 6.00 higher. Demand was good on all offerings. 7 weight index steers averaged $179, 8 weights averaged $175.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/10/2022 – Final
This Week: 779 Last Week: 2,845 Last Year:
Compared to last week: Limited price comparisons this week in a light test. Steers and heifers of similar weights not well compared this week. Steady to lower undertones present today. Demand for this light offering was moderate. 8 weight index steers averaged $171-$172.50.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/10/2022 – Final
This Week: 4,972 Last Week: 5,314 Last Year: 3,728
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 425 lbs. traded 8.00-11.00 lower with heavier weights trading 3.00-5.00 lower. Supply and demand was moderate. 7 weight index steers averaged $172-$180 and 8 weight index steers averaged $171.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/11/2022 – Final
This Week: 1,961 Last Week: 1,772 Last Year: 2,171
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer calve’s under 600 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 instances 8.00 to 10.00 higher, over 600 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Heifer calve’s under 400 lbs steady, 400 to 600 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 higher, 600 to 650 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 lower, 650 to 700 lbs steady. Yearling feeder steer’s mostly steady. Yearling feeder heifer’s scarce.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/11/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,935 Last Week: 2,317 Last Year: 1,819
Compared to last week, steer calves were lightly tested but sold steady to 5.00 higher and a nice offering of yearlings that included several loads sold steady. Heifer calves and yearlings sold steady except for the 600-650 lb heifers trading 5.00-8.00 lower than last week’s very active market for that weight range. Supply was moderate to heavy and included over 10 loads of yearlings along with some quality consignments of calves.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/11/2022 – Final
This Week: 3,038 Last Week: 2,560 Last Year: 1,967
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded 3.00-6.00 lower with spots 10.00 lower. Yearling steers traded steady to firm with yearling heifers not well tested. Demand was moderate on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 128,000 head, again matching last week and up 8,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 489,000 head, up 2,000 compared to the week previous and up 7,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on Choice but lower on Select on good demand with 145 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__246.75 +2.12
Select Cutout__212.85 -.97
CME Feeder Cattle Index__174.64 +.03
CME Lean Hog Index__92.95 -.03
Pork Carcass Cutout __103.15 +1.76
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__87.88 +3.74, 9,233 head
October live cattle still holding the long term higher trend with support at $144, resistance around $146 tested yesterday and the contract high at $147.50. October feeders holding a two month long lower trend with a new recent low on Monday at $171.45, the contract low at $168.87 and resistance at $178.20. October lean hogs also holding a lower trend with a new recent low last week at $86.20, testing resistance at $94 yesterday.
Wheat continues to be the volatile leader for the grains with new recent highs on Monday from the increased activity in Ukraine/Russia followed up by the markets giving half of it back on Tuesday. Russia still the headline maker, more specific to grains this time as repots are coming out that based on such a large crop this year, they do not intend to place an export quota on wheat. For the past few years, this quota has been put in place by mid-February lasting through the summer to keep domestic supplies available and cheaper.
Export inspections for the week ending October 6th were reported yesterday morning. Another week above the average needed for wheat, a much better week but still not enough for soybeans while both corn and grain sorghum continue to be disappointing. Wheat inspections totaled 22.6 MBU with the average needed per week at 14.4 MBU. Iraq and China both taking over 3 MBU followed by South Korea and the Philippines to receive over 2 MBU each. Soybeans totaled 35.6 MBU with average needed per week at 42.2 MBU as China finally popped taking 25.4 MBU. Corn totaled 18.0 MBU, the average needed per week at 46 MBU. The top three destinations were Mexico taking 7.7 MBU, 5.4 MBU to Japan and 3.1 MBU to China. Grain sorghum inspections only 813,545 bushels split between Ethiopia and Mexico with the average needed per week at 4.1 MBU.
Crop progress for the week ending October 9th was released yesterday afternoon. Corn harvest nationwide just a tad below expectations at 31% complete. This compares to 20% last week, 39% last year and 30% 5-year average. Soybean harvest nationwide a few points above expectations at 44%. This compares to 22% last week, 47% last year and 38% average. Winter wheat planted in line with expectations at 55%, up 15% from last week, and compared to 58% last year and 5-year average.
Grains were quiet overnight, mixed to lower trade ahead of today’s USDA crop report. US$ is steady, equites pointing higher and crude steady to higher overnight but down $1/barrel this morning. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 3 lower, soybeans 4 to 5 lower and wheat 5 to 10 lower. Good to see China back from holiday as USDA announced a private sale this morning of 526,000 MT or 19.3 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China.
USDA will update supply and demand at 11 AM CST today with most expecting a lower national corn yield and unchanged soybean yield compared to a month ago. The average trade estimate for U.S. corn yield is down 0.7 BPA at 171.8 with a range of 170.1 to 173.9 BPA. The average estimate for U.S. soybean yield is right at USDA’s estimate from a month ago at 50.5 BPA. U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to be reduced nearly 100 MBU from last month with beginning stocks lower (quarterly stocks estimate from USDA), production lower and it wouldn’t surprise me to see reduced exports. Soybeans ending stocks are expected to be 50 MBU higher, most of that coming from the increased beginning stocks, again the quarterly stocks estimate from USDA at the end of September. U.S. wheat stocks are expected to be reduced by 50 MBU, most of that from the decreased the production estimate on the Small Grains Summary also at the end of September.
Heavy rain in the forecast for the Southwest early next week with light and scattered rain for the eastern half of the U.S. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for the western half and below normal east with below normal moisture for all except in the Southwest.
December corn holding a higher trend since late July with a new recent high on Monday at $7.06 ½, resistance next at $7.25 and support at $6.71. November soybeans continue to chop sideways but holding a month long lower trend with support at $13.50 and resistance at $14.25. December KC Wheat a new recent high on Monday at $10.37 ½ with resistance next up around $10.50 and support at $9.60. December Chicago also a new recent high on Monday at $9.49 ¾ with resistance next at $9.54 and support at $8.72. December MPLS wheat has resistance around $10.50 and support around $9.60. October soybean meal new contract high back on September 22nd at $463.70 down to a new recent low last week at $397.10 and nearby resistance at $415.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
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