Date: September 20th, 2021
Livestock futures finished last week mixed but did rebound from sharp losses and new recent lows to start the week. Cash fed cattle trade last week steady to slightly lower on less volume. Trade in the South at $123 to $124 live. In the North, trade from $123 to $125 and $196 to $200 on a dressed basis.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/12/2021 – 9/18/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 32,873 Previous Week: 14,358 Last Year: 33,158
Compared to last week’s light test: Feeder steers sold 1.00-4.00 lower. Feeder heifers 5.00-10.00 lower. Demand moderate for feeder cattle. Cattle futures continue to lag especially on the feeder side. Slaughter cattle cash prices held mainly steady, however USDA’s Boxed Beef prices continued to decline and thru Thursday, posted another week loss of 10.00. Steer calves steady to 2.00 lower. Heifer calves steady to 5.00 lower. Demand light to moderate as many sales noted increased numbers of short or un-weaned calves.
For the week, Friday September 10th through Friday September 17th, October Live Cattle -$.62, December -$.70, September Feeder Cattle +$.62, October -$1.35, October Lean Hogs +$3.27, December -$1.05. Boxed Beef, Choice -$12.75 @ $314.47, Select -$13.62 @ $279.75, Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.05 @ $105.41.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 118,000 head and Saturday at 67,000. For the week, 660,000 head, up 83,000 from the holiday shortened week previous and up 12,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 542.2 million pounds compared to 473.2 million the week previous and 543.3 million last year. Year to date beef production +3.4% compared to last year and slaughter +3.7%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 470,000 head and Saturday at 185,000. For the week, 2,537,000 head, up 296,000 compared to the week previous but down 46,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 528.9 million pounds compared to 467.5 the week previous and 546.8 million last year. Year to date pork production and hog slaughter -1.8% compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday continued lower on strong demand with 155 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__314.47 -3.53
Select Cutout__279.75 -.52
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.60 +.58
CME Lean Hog Index__94.26 -.19
Pork Carcass Cutout__105.41 -.56
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__81.48 -.16
October live cattle down $12 from the Aug 24th new contract high last Monday’s new 5-month low. A quick reversal higher last Tuesday but futures faded the rest of the week. Nearby support is around $120 with resistance at $126. September feeders crashed $18 during the same time period, also hitting a new contract high but down to only a new 3-month low last Monday. Trading was quiet and choppy last week with nearby support at $151.50 then at $150 and resistance at $156 then around $160. October lean hogs a new 6-month low last Monday at $79.77 after 3 months of choppy, range bound trading with resistance around $90.
Grains ended the week under mild pressure mostly from fall harvest selling heading into the weekend. Wheat also followed lower on Friday but held double digit gains for the week as world values were higher for most of the week and still lower world production estimates. The soy complex struggled the most last week as weekly gains were wiped out by Friday’s downturn. China cancelled some U.S. soybean sales midweek and were purchasing higher priced soybeans from Brazil last week as U.S. Gulf shippers were still struggling to get back up and running after two consecutive hurricanes rolled through.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money or funds through the week ending 9/14 as sellers of the grains. Weekly changes show net reduction of 2,900 corn contracts, still net long 212k, -11,100 Chicago wheat and now short 6k, net sellers of 3,500 KC Wheat but still net long 37.6k, net sellers of 2,100 soybeans but still net long 55.3k.
For the week, Friday September 10th through Friday September 17th, December Corn +$.09 ¾, March +$.07 ¾, November Soybeans -$.02 ½, January -$.01 ¾, December KC Wheat +$.30 ½, March +$.30, December Chicago Wheat +$.20 ¼, March +$.20 ½, December MPLS Wheat +$.21 ¾, March +$.20, October Soybean Meal -$1.00/T, December -$.30/T.
Overnight, all in the red with equites and energies lower as well. Somewhat of typical start for the grains as Monday’s have trending lower for the past few weeks. Corn finished the overnight 5 to 10 lower, soybeans 14 to 16 lower and wheat 9 to 12 lower.
Export inspections out later this morning as Gulf shippers get back up and running. USDA will update crop progress and conditions later this afternoon with the first nationwide soybean harvest progress of the season. No daily sales announced by USDA this morning, China on holiday today and tomorrow. Hong Kong markets open though and equites worldwide sharply lower as fears build that the 2nd largest Chinese real estate and property developer may collapse.
Scattered and mostly light rain over the weekend in the WCB with heavy rain in the Southeast. The eastern half of the U.S. expected to see rains this week with heavy rains in IN, OH and the Carolina’s. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. with below normal temps in the Southeast and below normal moisture across the entire country.
December corn still holding a lower trend with nearby support around the $5 level and resistance at $5.30 then up around $5.55. November soybeans holding support around $12.60 with resistance at $13.10 then around $13.40. December KC wheat recovering last week but falling short of the $7.30 resistance with support just below $7.00. December Chicago wheat looks similar with support being tested at the $7 level overnight and resistance at $7.16 then around $7.50. December MPLS wheat with nearby support around $8.60 and resistance at $9.15. October Soybean Meal holding a lower trend since May with support at $332 and resistance at $343 then $354.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700