Date: September 6th, 2022
Livestock futures finished last week mixed as cattle futures held gains which secured week over week gains but lean hogs finished triple digits lower which led to losses week over week. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week was steady to $2 lower with live trade in the South from $140 to $141. Trade in the North also lower and closing the premium gap with the South at $143 to $145 live and dressed trade from $228 to $232.
For the week, Friday August 26th through Friday September 2nd, October Live Cattle +$1.50, December +$1.15, September Feeder Cattle +$1.67, October +$1.55, October Lean Hogs -$.62, December -$.25. Boxed Beef, Choice -$3.34 @ $259.42, Select -$.18 @ $238.58, Pork Carcass Cutout +$.02 @ $102.25.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/28/22-9/3/22
Current Week: 35,585 Last Report 8/22/22: 32,490 Last Year: 26,638
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers mostly steady to 2.00 lower. Demand moderate for feeder cattle. Boxed beef prices moved lower this week after many weeks of holding steady. Thus live cattle prices pushed lower on moderate movement. Steer calves steady to 4.00 lower, most decline on heavier weights. Heifer calves sold 3.00-8.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 638,000 head, down 40,000 from the week previous but up 17,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 520.1 million pounds with year to date remaining at +1.0% vs. last year and slaughter up to +1.3%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,350,000 head, down 55,000 compared to the week previous and down 35,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 493.2 million pounds with year to date also remaining the same at -2.8% vs. last year and slaughter -3.4%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate to weak demand with 89 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__259.42 +1.35
Select Cutout__238.58 +1.99
CME Feeder Cattle Index__181.25 -1.11
CME Lean Hog Index__104.74 -1.52, down $16+ since mid-August
Pork Carcass Cutout __102.25 +.39
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__97.68 -2.07, 3,380 head
October live cattle holding a higher trend since the May 31st low with support at $142 and resistance at $146. September feeders tested the higher trend last week, still the only feeder contract yet to make new contract high recently with a recent high last month at $187.77, the contract high up at $188.25 and support at $179.50. October lean hogs holding a lower trend since mid-August, breaking the $90 support last Friday with the next down at $86.82 and resistance at $94.40.
Grains finished the week with a decent rally but week over week mixed with corn steady, soybeans lower and wheat mixed. Spring wheat harvest moving past the halfway point provided harvest pressure on MPLS wheat futures while only scattered and limited moisture recently in HRW areas as planting will begin soon. The friendly Pro Farmer crop tour the week previous supported the fall crops early but less threatening weather provided some of the pressure midweek. Fall harvest will begin to extend north and could keep any rallies subdued.
For the week, Friday August 26th through Friday September 2nd, September Corn +$.00 ¼, December +$.01 ½, September Soybeans -$.94 ¾, November -$.40 ¾, September KC Wheat -$.11 ¾, December -$.04 ½, September Chicago Wheat +$.08 ¼, December +$.05 ¾, September MPLS Wheat -$.22 ¼, December -$.19 ½.
Grains mixed overnight and trading both sides of unchanged coming off the 3-day weekend. Corn finished the overnight steady to 1 higher, soybeans 14 to 15 lower and wheat 3 to 12 higher. Equities pointing higher along with the US$ as energies were higher last night, crude over $3 higher but now steady.
Export business over the past few days include Iraq buying a couple cargoes of U.S. wheat, Taiwan buying a cargo of U.S. milling quality wheat, South Korea buying a cargo of Australian wheat and tendering for 5.5 MBU of corn.
Rains over the weekend from the Gulf up into the ECB. Heavy rain expected to continue in the Southeast/Delta causing some concern for fall harvest. Excessive heat back in the mix from ND to CO this week. The 6-10 day outlook calling for above normal temps for all except in the Southeast and below normal moisture from the Southwest up through Plains and WCB with above normal for both coasts. Also time to start discussing South American weather as planting will soon begin. In general, Brazil moisture looks very good but concerns are already building in Argentina as mild but very dry conditions persist and little to no rain in the extended forecasts.
September grain contracts now in delivery and volume getting thin. December corn holding a higher trend since late July with resistance at $6.83 and support around $6.50. November soybeans breaking the higher trend line going back to late July with support at $13.90 and resistance from $14.84 ½ to $14.89, the highs from July and August. December KC Wheat locked in a choppy/range bound trading pattern now for 2 months with nearby support at $8.63 then the recent low at $8.08 ½ with a double top at $9.21 ½ the line of resistance. December Chicago wheat also choppy with support at $7.83 then $7.43 and resistance at $8.49 then $8.63. December MPLS wheat the same sideways/choppy trading with the recent low at $8.61 ¾ and resistance at $9.45 then $9.60.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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