Date: August 15th, 2022
All livestock futures finished in the red on Friday but the nearby, and in delivery, August live cattle contract was able to hit yet another new recent high and settled just $1.60 away from the contract high. TX & KS cash fed cattle trade took a big step higher, up to $140 live which was $4 to $5 higher than a week ago. The North trade still carrying a premium but only managing steady to $2 higher, ranging from $144 to $148 live and $229 to $230 dressed. The USDA updated meat supply and demand on Friday with beef production this year increasing 68 mil pounds and next year increasing 325 mil pounds compared to a month ago. Beef exports also projected 65 million and 40 million pounds higher respectively while total poultry exports were significantly reduced for both this year and next.
For the week, Friday August 5th through Friday August 12th, August Live Cattle +$2.35, October +$.62, August Feeder Cattle +$.10, September -$.05, August Lean Hogs +$.90, October +$1.62. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.25 @ $263.37, Select +$.92 @ $239.59, Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.20 @ $121.83.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/7/22-8/13/22
Current Week: 33,267 Last Report 8/1/22: 31,326 Last Year: 27,018
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00-5.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00-4.00 higher. Steer calves 2.00-6.00 higher. Heifer calves 4.00- 8.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 647,000 head, down 4,000 from the week previous but up 11,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 524.5 million pounds with year to date remaining +1.0% vs. last year and slaughter +1.2%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,338,000 head, up 6,000 compared to the week previous but down 70,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 494.1 million pounds with year to date also remaining -2.9% compared to a year ago and slaughter -3.6%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate demand with 89 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__263.37 +.27
Select Cutout__239.59 +2.13
CME Feeder Cattle Index__178.28 +.22
CME Lean Hog Index__121.93 +.07
Pork Carcass Cutout __121.83 -1.48
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__123.69 +2.32, 6,089 head
August live cattle again hitting a new recent high on Friday at $140.77 with the contract high at $141.82 and support down around $138. August feeders holding the nearly 3 month long higher trend with support at $177.90 and resistance just shy of $182. October lean hogs now the front month, also holding a higher trend, with a new contract high last Thursday at $101.65. Of course there’s a wide gap from there up to the August contract expiration at $121.72.
Grains were mixed on Friday but held strong gains week over week. U.S. hot and dry weather was the main supporting factor last week. The USDA update and supply and demand of course influenced the trading action on Friday. It was a mixed report with corn yield and production lower than expected but USDA raised its soybean production estimate with most looking for a slight reduction. U.S. corn yield down from 177 BPA to 175.4 and soybean yield up from 51.5 BPA to 51.9. This is data as of August 1st and the majority of the WCB and Plains has been going backwards so far this month. Soybeans led the charge lower directly after the report but corn took the lead around the noon hour and were able to pull soybeans back higher. Back to watching the weather and forecasts as we now round the corner heading for harvest.
The CFTC Commitment of Trader’s report showed managed fund money for the trade week ending August 9th buying 12.1k corn contracts (net long 142.0k), buying 2k soybeans (net long 101.5k), selling 5.3k Chicago wheat (net short -20.3k) and selling 1.9k KC Wheat (net long 8.0k).
For the week, Friday August 5th through Friday August 12th, September Corn +$.29 ½, December +$.32 ¼, September Soybeans +$.71 ¾, November +$.45 ½, September KC Wheat +$.41, December +$.36 ½, September Chicago Wheat +$.30 ¼, December +$.27 ¼, September MPLS Wheat +$.33, December +$.31 ½, September Soybean Meal +$27.20/T, October +$15.60/T.
Grains gapping and holding lower overnight as the WCB to receive some very beneficial rains this week along with the EU finally showing normal precip chances. Additional pressure on the markets coming from the increased tensions between China and the U.S. as yet another group of U.S. representatives landed in Taiwan yesterday. Outside markets bearish as well with equites pointing lower this morning, crude down over $4/barrel and the US$ higher. Corn finished the overnight 19 lower, soybeans 41 to 48 lower and wheat 17 to 24 lower.
Excessive heat to continue for the first part of this week in the Southern Plains with heavy rains centered on MO and around 1” expected in parts of KS, OK and IA. The NWS 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps and below normal moisture for the Northern Plains, but below normal temps and above normal moisture from the Southwest up into the Corn Belt.
September corn a new recent high last Thursday at $6.40 ½, resistance next up around $6.65 with support at $6.13. The December contract looks similar, a new recent high last Thursday at $6.42 ¾, resistance around $6.60 and support down at $6.11. November soybeans trying to hold nearly a month long higher trend, tested that trendline support overnight with the next down at $13.91 and resistance up at last week’s high at $14.64 ¾. September KC Wheat chopping sideways since early July with nearby support at $8.60 and resistance at $8.94. September Chicago wheat sideways to lower with a new recent low on August 3rd at $7.52 and resistance at $8.20. September MPLS wheat also a new recent low on August 3rd at $8.64 ¾ with resistance at $9.28.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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