Date: July 27th, 2022
All livestock futures lower yesterday, led by $2 losses for feeders as grains continued their rally. This is the most pressing right now although feeders are still holding a higher trend and the nearby August live cattle contract broke through resistance on Monday for a new recent high. If cash trade can hold steady or even add a couple bucks this week that would help give some life to the August contract as we enter deliveries next week. Some cash fed cattle developing on Tuesday in TX at $135 live, steady to $1 lower than last week and in KS at $136 live which would be steady.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/25/2022 – Final
This Week: 6,771 Last Week: 12,107 Last Year: 8,494
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 3.00-6.00 higher and feeder heifers 4.00-6.00 higher. Steer calves 8.00 – 10.00 higher and heifer calves 2.00 – 4.00 higher. Demand is moderate to good. Quality was average. 7 weight index steers averaging $172-$174 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $167-$168.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/25/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,885 Last Week: 1,749 Last Year: 3,625
Compared to last week: Feeder steers under 1000 lbs not well compared, over 1000 lbs 9.00 to 15.00 higher, heifers under 800 lbs not well compared, over 800 lbs steady to 5.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaging $181-$185 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $172-$184.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/25/2022 – Final
This Week: 6,187 Last Week: 9,551 Last Year: 4,683
Compared to last week feeder steers under 750 lbs. traded 2.00-6.00 higher with heavier weights trading steady. Feeder heifers traded 4.00- 7.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaging $174-$179 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $166-$171.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/26/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,018 Last Week: 3,650 Last Year: 2,044
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded 6.00-10.00 higher. Feeder steers traded 4.00-6.00 higher with feeder heifers not well tested. Demand was very good on a light supply. Heat warnings and advisories had a bigger effect on supply than demand as receipts were the lightest seen this month.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, matching last week and up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 467,000 head, up 7,000 compared to a week ago but down 5,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate demand with 115 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__269.11 +1.00
Select Cutout__243.88 -1.12
CME Feeder Cattle Index__169.91 +.89
CME Lean Hog Index__119.42 +.29
Pork Carcass Cutout __126.77 -1.05
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__124.75 +7.56, 15,441 head
August live cattle a new recent high on Monday at $138.07 with support from $135 to $135.50. August feeders new recent high last Friday at $181.82 with resistance next up at $182 and support at $175.20. August lean hogs holding a month long higher trend with resistance around $119 and support at $110.
A three day rally going for soybeans, the nearby August meal contract hitting new contract highs and both corn and soybeans gapping higher, adding to the gains during the day and able to finish near their daily highs yesterday. Crop conditions Monday after the close dropped much more than expected for all the fall crops and the extended forecasts calling for a couple weeks of excessive heat and very dry which would easily make soybeans the leader as we make a break a bean crop in August. This week’s weather still looks very good for most areas, although some excessive rain has fallen across the Midwest with eastern MO and Southern IL, specifically St. Louis, the latest to get hit receiving up near 12” yesterday. Also adding some support were reports of additional Russian attacks on Ukraine ports.
Grains continue to rally, led by the soy complex with beans now trading higher the past 4 sessions and August soybean meal up to yet another new contract high overnight. Outside markets supportive with equities pointing higher, the US$ lower and crude higher. Corn finished the overnight 3 higher, soybeans 15 to 31 higher and wheat 1 lower to 5 higher.
The first Ukraine grain shipments through the Black Sea since Russia invaded over 5 months ago are still on track to begin later this week. It is still a very tenuous situation though as a few ports in Ukraine have been hit since the “safe shipping” deal was agreed to last Friday. Overnight, Russian officials now commenting that the deal may collapse if certain obstacles or sanctions are not removed to allow Russian ag exports.
U.S. weather premium continues to be added to the grains and oilseeds. Heavy rain chances still for this week from the SW straight through KS and all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Excessive heat though begins early next week for many areas and the spigots shut off. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks both show the much above normal temps and below normal moisture centered on the Corn Belt.
September corn down to a new recent low last Friday at $5.61 ½ with resistance being tested overnight around the $6 level and the next up at $6.23 ½. The December contract looks the same, down to $5.61 ¾ with resistance around $6.23. August soybeans taking out the recent lower trend and into a new high for the month with resistance next around the $16 level and support down at $14.90. November soybeans breaking the $13 level for the first time since January, down to $12.88 ½ for a new recent low on Friday, now back to testing the $14 level with the high for the month up at $14.38 ½. September KC Wheat down to a new 5-month low on Friday at $8.14 ½ with resistance right around the $9 level. September Chicago wheat also a new 5-month low at $7.54 with resistance around $8.40. September MPLS wheat with support around $8.70 and resistance at $9.56. August soybean meal racing higher the past few days with a new contract high overnight at $476.7, the next upside target at $500 and support down at $430.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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