Date: April 11th, 2022
Livestock futures mixed to end the week but sharply lower feeders and lean hogs week over week. Grains rallied sharply providing most of the pressure. Cash fed cattle trade steady to a shade weaker last week and most of the volume seen at the beginning of the week. Cash trade at mostly $137 to $138 live in the KS and TX and in the North at $138 to $140 live and $222 on a dressed basis. USDA updated beef supply for the year slightly higher and left exports unchanged compared to a month ago while reduced both pork and total poultry production and exports.
For the week, Friday April 1st through Friday April 8th, April Live Cattle -$.82, June -$2.02, April Feeder Cattle -$5.02, May -$6.75, August -$2.80, April Lean Hogs -$8.45, June -$11.27. Boxed Beef, Choice +$3.33 @ $270.47, Select -$2.19 @ $260.33, Pork Carcass Cutout -$.44 @ $103.16.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/3/2022 – 4/9/2022
Current Week: 26,653 Last Report 3/28/22: 27,030 Last Year: 26,929
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 1.00-2.00 lower. Feeder heifers 2.00-3.00 lower. Stocker cattle and calves sold 3.00-6.00 lower. Demand moderate for all classes.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 120,000 head and Saturday 61,000 head. For the week, 676,000 head, up 37,000 from the week previous and up 34,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 563.8 million pounds with the year to date difference now up to 1.0% vs. last year and year to date slaughter +0.7%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 466,000 head and Saturday 96,000 head. For the week, 2,430,000 head, down 4,000 compared to the week previous and down 24,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 530.6 million pounds with year to date pork production and hog slaughter both -6.2% compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on moderate demand with 92 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__270.47 -.93
Select Cutout__260.33 -.89
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.59 +.05
CME Lean Hog Index__100.06 -.62
Pork Carcass Cutout __103.16 +.05
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 97.73 -2.57 on only 4,194 head
April live cattle down to a new recent low last week at $136.35, just above the next nearby support at $136, resistance up at $139 then $141. April feeders continue under pressure down to $155.07 last week with the spike low from March 4th at $154.27. April lean hogs also a new recent low last week at $96.57 with support next at $94 and resistance up at $102.
The updated supply and demand for the grains were the main focus coming into Friday’s trade. Honestly though it was a mixed report and all grains and oilseeds were trading higher before the report, traded the data for maybe an hour and then proceeded higher for the day. U.S. corn ending stocks were unchanged but USDA did increase corn use for ethanol while reducing feed usage. U.S. soybean stocks were decreased as exports were increased. The opposite for U.S. wheat as stocks were increased due to exports decreasing. Those were all in line with expectations. World corn stocks higher which went against the average trade estimates and world wheat stocks lower, also against the estimates. Brazil’s corn production was increased while soybean production decreased while both crop for Argentina left unchanged. Chinese imports for both corn and soybeans lower than a month ago. Ukraine wheat and corn exports decreased again this month as they still cannot ship through the Black Sea which accounts for 90% of their export capacity.
CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed fund money through the week ending 4/5 adding 7.7k corn (net long 362.3k), -5.4k Chicago wheat (net long 13.9k), -281 KC Wheat (net long 45.0k) and +7.3k soybeans (net long 163.6k).
For the week, Friday April 1st through Friday April 8th, May Corn +$.33 ¾, July +$.39, December +$.28, May Soybeans +$1.06 ¼, July +$1.01 ¼, November +$.88 ¾, May KC Wheat +$.93 ¾, July +$.96 ¼, September +$.97 ½, May Chicago Wheat +$.67, July +$.74, May MPLS Wheat +$.62, September +$.86, May Soybean Meal +$18.20, October +$19.50.
Grains mixed overnight with corn and wheat higher but soybeans lower. U.S. equites are pointing lower this morning, US$ is higher and energies are lower with crude down over $4/barrel. Corn finished the overnight 6 to 7 higher, July forward hitting new contract highs, soybeans 3 to 7 lower and wheat 11 to 18 higher.
USDA announcing another massive private corn sale to start the week. This time a total of 1,020,000 MT or 40.2 MBU of corn for delivery to China. This is split with 26.8 MBU of old crop corn and 13.4 MBU for new crop.
This week’s weather starting out with snow from the Rockies into the Northern Plains to severe weather for the Southern Plains and again heavy rains in the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps across the entire country and below normal moisture for the western half and above normal moisture east.
May corn choppy this past month, into a new recent high overnight but still not a new contract high since March 4th at $7.82 ¾. July corn has a higher trend, a new contract high overnight at $7.68 ¾ and support around $7.40. The December contract continues to hold a higher trend as well, another new contract high overnight at $7.23 ¼ and support around $6.75. May and July soybeans down over $1.20 two weeks to up over $1.00 last week. July has support at the $16 level with resistance up around $17. The November contract dipped down to new 2-month low at $13.94 back on April 1st now back above $15 with nearby support around $14.40 and resistance up at $15.20. July KC Wheat choppy trade from $9.93 to $11.50 over this past month with nearby support at $10.63. July Chicago wheat looks similar with the range from $9.67 to $11.40. May MPLS wheat breaking the range bound trading and into a new recent high at $11.42 overnight, the contract high from March 8th up $12.11 ¾. May Soybean Meal with support at $448 and resistance at $479.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336