Date: April 25th, 2022
Grain and livestock futures mixed to end last week as well as week over week changes. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade $2 to $7 higher with live trade in South from $139 to $141. Trade in the North saw the biggest gains with live trade ranging from $144 to $148 and dressed trade from $228 to $236.
After the close, USDA released a bearish Cattle on Feed report with total on feed as of April 1st at 12.1 million head, up 2% from a year ago. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.99 million head, slightly below 2021, but expectations were down 8%. This is the largest first quarter placements in 22 years. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 2.00 million head, 2% below 2021.
USDA Cold Storage was also released Friday afternoon. Total frozen poultry supplies on March 31, 2022 were up 1% from the previous month but down 1% from a year ago. Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 1% from the previous month and up 9% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 1% from the previous month and up 11% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 2% from the previous month and up 8% from last year.
For the week, Thursday April 14th through Friday April 22nd, April Live Cattle +$1.77, June +$2.00, April Feeder Cattle -$.25, May +$2.10, August +$2.55, June Lean Hogs +$.30, July +$.60. Boxed Beef, Choice -$4.71 @ $267.91, Select -$4.13 @ $254.77, Pork Carcass Cutout +$1.07 @ $111.28.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/17/2022 – 4/23/2022
Current Week: 23,436 Last Report 4/11/22: 25,901 Last Year: 25,968
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00 – 4.00 higher. Stocker steers and steer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Stocker heifers and heifer calves sold 2.00-4.00 higher. Demand moderate for feeder cattle. Demand continues good for stockers and calves.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 119,000 head and Saturday 63,000 head. For the week, 665,000 head, up 31,000 from the week previous and matching last year. Beef production estimated at 552.6 million pounds with the year to date difference down slightly to +0.7% vs. last year and year to date slaughter +0.4%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 463,000 head and Saturday 114,000 head. For the week, 2,374,000 head, up 33,000 compared to the week previous but down 97,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 519.2 million pounds with year to date pork production still -6.0% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter improving slightly to -5.8%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on light to moderate demand with 95 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__267.91 -2.26
Select Cutout__254.77 -.91
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.21 +1.31
CME Lean Hog Index__101.67 +.42
Pork Carcass Cutout __111.28 +1.08
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__99.13 -6.91, only 3,197 head
April live cattle gapping higher last week, into a new recent high at $144.22, currently above all the major moving averages yet will expire this Friday. June will then become the front month with support around $136, resistance at $140 and the contract high from February 10th at $143.35. April feeders still holding near its recent lows with support at $157.40, then around $154 and resistance at $159.50. June lean hogs holding a long term higher trend with support at $112.20, resistance at $123 and the contract high hit on March 31st at $127.32.
Grains bouncing back and forth all week with mixed weather, continued cool and wet forecasts for the Corn Belt and limited moisture chances seen for central Brazil. Russia continues to push hard in Eastern Ukraine and boasting a victory by May 9th. Ukraine exports sill cut off through the Black Sea, rail capacity seen at a little over 1 MMT per month and plans for that to double by July. Ukraine and U.S. planting pace will be closely monitored over the next few weeks. Soybeans hit new highs on Friday, but reversed lower as soybean oil was sharply higher after Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, banned palm oil exports to try and stabilize domestic prices. This was clarified later to only cover refined palm oil, a much smaller impact to world veg oils.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report showed managed fund money through the week ending April 19th adding 9.1k contracts of corn (net long 379.1k), +7.8k soybeans (net long 179.7k), -2.1k Chicago wheat (net long 14.4k), +449 KC wheat (net long 49.8k), +6.1k soybean meal (net long 99.5k), and +12.0k soybean oil (net long 96.0k).
For the week, Thursday April 14th through Friday April 22nd, May Corn +$.02 ¾, July +$.05 ¼, December -$.10 ¾, May Soybeans +$.33 ¾, July +$.22 ¾, November +$.03 ¾, May KC Wheat -$.11 ¼, July -$.07 ¾, May Chicago Wheat -$.31, July -$.29 ¼, May MPLS Wheat +$.15 ¾, September +$.17 ¼, May Soybean Meal -$2.60, October -$1.40.
Grains mixed overnight with continued pressure on soybeans, corn traded both sides of unchanged and wheat markets were mostly higher. World equities lower overnight, U.S. equites are pointing lower this morning and energies sharply lower as more CVOID cases are being reported out of China. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 4 lower, soybeans 17 to 22 lower and wheat steady to 6 higher.
USDA reported private sales for a total of 534,000 MT or 19.6 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China this morning. This is split between 2.4 MBU for old crop and 17.2 MBU for new crop.
This week’s weather forecast calling for drier conditions across the majority of the Corn Belt but still below normal temps. The Northern Plains are still wet with rain coming into the WCB near the end of the week. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps out West and for the northern half of the country with above normal in the South and above normal moisture from the PNW through the Northern Plains and Corn Belt down into the Southeast with below normal for the Southwest.
May corn contract high last week at $8.19 ¾ and support at $7.83. The all-time spot high was back in August 2012 at $8.43 ¾. The December contract also hit another new contract high last week at $7.55 with support at $7.11. May soybeans within 2 cents of the contract high, $17.59 ¼ on February 24th, last Friday before reversing lower with support at $16.69. The November contract testing support at $14.80 overnight with last Friday’s new recent high at $15.41 ¼ and the contract high also from February 24th at $15.55. May KC Wheat very choppy the past couple months with support at $11.07 and resistance at $11.98. May Chicago wheat trading a $2 range since mid-March with nearby support at $10.52 and resistance at $11.35. May MPLS wheat holding a higher trend over the past 4 weeks with support at $11.22, resistance at $11.85 and the contract high from March 8th up $12.11 ¾. May Soybean Meal choppy this month with support at $448 and resistance at $473.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336