Date: April 6th, 2022
Livestock futures all triple digits lower as gains were again sharply higher on Tuesday. Beef prices though were higher yesterday and daily slaughter rates continue to hold up near the recent top end of capacity. Cash fed cattle already trading as early as Monday at mostly $138 up to $142 live in the North and $222 to $225 on a dressed basis, all in essence remaining steady now for over a month. Some light volume reported yesterday as low as $136 live and $219 dressed.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/4/2022
This Week: 8,181 Last Week: 8,426 Last Year: 6,800
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves 6.00 -10.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaging $157 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $149-$153.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/4/2022
This Week: 2,006 Last Week: 3,944 Last Year: 2,551
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00 to 4.00 lower except, 600lbs – 650lbs 2.00 to 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00 to 3.00 lower except, 700lbs – 850lbs steady to 2.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaging $158-$165 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $146-$151.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/4/2022
This Week: 6,364 Last Week: 5,832 Last Year: 5,772
Compared to last week feeder steers under 800 lbs. traded steady, with heavier weights steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded steady. 7 weight index steers averaging $159-$164 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $151-$154.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/5/2022
This Week: 2,531 Last Week: 3,223 Last Year: 3,409
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded uneven from 3.00 lower to 3.00 higher with most of the gain on six and seven weight calves.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, matching last week and up 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 480,000 head, up 1,000 compared to a week ago and compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on moderate to good demand with 123 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__271.53 +3.49
Select Cutout__262.90 +1.20
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.76 -.39
CME Lean Hog Index__101.74 -.67
Pork Carcass Cutout __103.60 -2.75
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 101.42 +1.93 on 16,008 head
April live cattle sharply lower the past 5 trading sessions after testing the $141 area last week. Nearby support at $138 taken out this week with the next down at $136. April feeders look similar with 5 consecutive lower days after hitting a new recent high at $165 last week and support now the spike low from March 4th at $154.27. August broke the higher trend last week and already below the March 4th low this week. The contract low from last September is down at $166.07 with resistance at $180. April lean hogs breaking the 2 month long range bound trading pattern into a new recent low yesterday at $96.57 with support next at $94 and resistance up at $102.
World veg oils continue to rally and U.S. winter wheat conditions came in much lower than expected late Monday. This shouldn’t be such a shock to the market as the drought in the Southern Plains has been documented for some time now and state conditions have already been coming out the past few weeks. Both soybean oil and wheat futures gapped higher on Tuesday. KC wheat was the leader higher yesterday along with Chicago wheat and the soy complex. They were all the biggest losers though last week. More sanctions announced by the EU and U.S. on Russia as well.
Corn still trending higher as December corn hitting a new contract high the 4th trading session in a row. Since spring crop insurances prices were set, new crop corn and spring wheat futures are roughly 20% higher while soybeans are less than 2% higher. On the bearish side, China continues to expand their recent COVID lockdown, covering parts of 23 cities now and 193 million people. Brazil second crop or safrinha corn looking good as subsoil moisture is great with some recent drier than normal conditions. Outside markets mixed yesterday with the US$ sharply higher and into a level not seen since May 2020, equites lower and energies started higher but faded into negative territory by midday.
Overnight, grains were actually fairly quiet, trading a few cents lower until selling picked up around 5 AM. Corn and soybeans came back to finish the overnight steady to 4 lower with wheat 7 to 10 lower. Equites again pointing lower this morning while energies are higher. China back from a 2-day holiday. USDA announced a private sale this morning of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of old crop soybeans for delivery to China.
USDA will update supply and demand this Friday. The average pre report trade estimates looking for slight reductions in both U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks and slight increase in wheat stocks. In March, USDA increased corn and soybean exports while decreasing wheat exports. I could see this happening again this month. The world update will be watched closer for any changes to South American production and Ukraine export projections.
Heavy rain and severe weather continue in the Southeast this week as a cold front comes through the Plains to end the week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps east and below normal west with above normal moisture across most of the country, the heaviest amounts look to be from the Great Lakes down into the Gulf States.
May corn choppy this past month with nearby support at $7.27 and resistance up at $7.70. July corn has a higher trend, a new contract high yesterday at $7.55 ½ and support at $7.26. The December contract continues to hold a higher trend with support around $6.50 and again a new contract high yesterday at $7.12 ½. May soybeans into a new recent low on Monday at $15.76 ¾, support next down around $15.50 and resistance around $16.80. July soybeans look similar with a new recent low at $15.60 ½, support also around $15.50 and resistance at $16.58. The November contract breaking the $14 level last week for a new 2-month low at $13.94 with resistance around $14.80. May KC wheat breaking below the $10 level last week down to $9.93 and already back testing resistance up around $11. The July contract also down to $9.93 with resistance at $11. May Chicago wheat down to a new recent low at $9.72 last week with resistance at $10.75. July looks similar with support at $9.67 and resistance around $10.70. May MPLS wheat bouncing in range this past month from support around $10.20 and resistance around $11.20. May Soybean Meal with support at $448 and resistance at $479.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336