Date: November 17th, 2021
Livestock futures were mixed with grains lower on Tuesday. Live cattle futures remain in a holding pattern so far this week awaiting direction from the rallying cash market. So far this week, light cash trade at $130 to $132.50 live and $207 dressed. Feeders were higher with grains lower yet still trading fairly tight ranges. Lean hogs the most impressive yesterday with most contracts triple digits higher and back to test recent highs and resistance.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/15/2021
This Week: estimated 13,380 Last Week: 10,653 Last Year: 13,829
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Demand good. Quality average to attractive. A increased number of weaned calves on offer today, however all calves selling to very good demand.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/15/2021
This Week: 4,917 Last Week: 4,528 Last Year: 5,314
Compared to last week: Steers and Heifers 2.00-3.00 lower. Value added cattle 5.00-7.00 lower. Quality good. Demand moderate to good. Slaughter Cows 6.00-8.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/15/2021
This Week: 7,643 Last Week: 7,243 Last Year: 9,010
Compared to last week weaned steer calves under 550 lbs. traded 2.00-5.00 higher. Feeder cattle over 550 lbs. traded steady. Feeder heifers traded steady. Supply heavy with good demand for weaned and quality cattle. Demand moderate for unweaned calves.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/16/2021
This Week: 3,460 Last Week: 4,655 Last Year: 5,082
Compared to last week, steer calves traded steady to 3.00 higher while heifer calves traded steady to 3.00 lower. Demand was good on a moderate supply.
Miles City Livestock Commission Auction – Miles City, MT
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/16/2021
This Week: 3,217 Last Week: 3,044 Last Year: 7,806
Compared to last week: Yearling steers and heifers were too lightly tested to develop any market trend, however firm undertones noted for heifers. Demand for yearlings was moderate to good for light offerings of plain to average cattle. Feeder steers under 400lbs sold weak on a light test; 400-499 lbs steers sold steady to 5.00 lower; 500-599 lbs steers sold steady to 7.00 lower, calves over 600 were not well tested last week. Heifer calves under 500 lbs sold steady to 10.00 lower; heifers over 500 lbs sold steady to 2.00 lower. Heifers over 900lbs sold with a firm undertone compared to a light test last week. Quality this week was average to attractive. Most calves were offered in mostly small to medium size packages. Very few packages over 50 head were seen this week. Trucks remain tight but have started to loosen up some according to buyers. Demand for grass calves was mostly very good this week as supplies have started to tighten.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, matching last week and up 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 484,000 head, up 6,000 compared to a week ago but down 12,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on strong demand with 162 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__282.13 -1.07
Select Cutout__266.59 -.69
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.43 +.37
CME Lean Hog Index__76.33 +.16
Pork Carcass Cutout__87.77 -6.16
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__57.16 -.30
USDA monthly cattle on feed this Friday with the average trade estimate for November 1st on feed at 99% vs. a year ago, October placements at 102% and marketings at 96% compared to last year.
December live cattle still holding a higher trend with support at $130.50 and resistance at $132.60 then $134. November feeders holding around $155 to $156 and will expire tomorrow. The January contract hit a new recent low to start the month down at $150.77 but rebounded the next day and has since traded from $156.80 to $160.60 with resistance at $163. December lean hogs remain choppy and trading around a $9 range over the past month with support at $71.70 and resistance at $79.50.
Over in the grains, wheat was the leader lower as fresh bullish news has been absent so far this week allowing some profiting taking in extremely overbought futures. Both corn and soybeans traded steady to lower during the day with both still pressuring the long term lower trend lines near their daily highs. USDA has announced daily sales of both corn and soybeans the past two days with decent weekly export sales recently as well. Overall, we still need to see some additional demand and signs that ending stocks may decrease which would lead to another fundamental bullish story developing.
Grains steady to higher overnight led by the soy complex. Europe’s grain markets higher overnight along with Malaysian palm oil. Energies and equites starting lower though. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 3 higher, soybeans 4 to 11 higher and wheat 2 to 5 higher.
USDA announcing daily export sales for the third consecutive day with 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of soybeans to China and 30,000 MT of soybean oil for delivery to India. China still buying U.S. soybeans but also the same amount from Brazil this week for December through February shipment. Egypt purchased only 1 cargo of wheat from Romania. South Korea purchased a couple cargoes of optional origin corn. Algeria purchased up to 28 MBU of wheat with the majority coming from Russia which was considerably more than expected.
Temps more seasonal for the balance of the week and into next across the U.S with the only rain expected to continue in the PNW and parts of the Southeast and ECB. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the western quarter of the country and below normal for the eastern half with below normal moisture on the West Coast and in the Western Corn Belt and above normal moisture in the Southern Plains and the Southeast up into New England. Brazil and Argentina still looking at below normal moisture in their southern grain areas only over the next week but also below normal temperatures.
December corn holding the short term higher trend and testing the long term lower trend this month, so far unable to break through, with support around $5.50 and resistance at $5.82 then $5.86. January soybeans $.80 higher than the new recent low last week at $11.81 ¼ and also testing resistance and the long term trend around $12.60 with support around $12.30. Never mind, how about $1 higher and breaking the long term lower trend into a new recent high at $12.82 so far with resistance next up around the $13 level. December KC wheat a new contract high last Friday at $8.43 ½ with support at $7.96. December Chicago wheat a new contract high on Monday at $8.29 ½ (new contract today so far at $8.31 ½) with support at $7.83. December MPLS wheat contract high back on November 2nd at $10.86 ½ with support at $10.00. December Soybean Meal a new recent high on Monday and testing nearby resistance around $375 (new 5-month today so far at $380.20) with support around $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700