Date: November 8th, 2021
Cattle futures finished the week strong as hogs were in the red but still able hold gains week over week. Negotiated cash feedlot trade started midweek at $2 higher than the week previous at $128 live in TX and KS and $202 dressed in NE. Trade was light until Friday popped with another $2 increase at $130 live and $204 dressed on moderate volume. $4 higher cash trade along with the past few weeks of increased slaughter and beef production is a positive sign moving forward. Feeders were able to recover from new recent lows and fats hit new 2-month highs last week.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/31/2021 – 11/6/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 29,629 Previous Week: 29,528 Last Year: 21,534
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers 2.00-4.00 higher. Demand moderate for feeder cattle. Steer calves sold mostly steady. Heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Demand good for long weaned calves; light to moderate for others.
Ft. Pierre Livestock Auction (Friday) – Ft. Pierre, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/5/2021
This Week: 8,921 Last Week: 8,804 Last Year: 9,500
Compared to last Friday’s sale: Steer calves from 350# to 399# were steady, 400# to 499# were mostly $8.00 to $10.00 were lower with instances of $12.00 lower, 450# to 499# were $3.00 to $4.00 higher, 500# to 549# were $4.00 to $6.00 lower, 550# to 699# were $2.00 to $5.00 higher. Heifer calves 400# to 599# were generally $4.00 to $6.00 higher.
For the week, Friday October 29th through Friday November 5th, December Live Cattle +$2.52, February +$2.90, November Feeder Cattle +$2.30, January +$3.47, December Lean Hogs +$.47, February +$.80. Boxed Beef, Choice +$3.82 @ $289.54, Select +$4.15 @ $267.52, Pork Carcass Cutout -$.17 @ $96.35.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 118,000 head and Saturday at 45,000. For the week, 650,000 head, down 18,000 from the week previous and down 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 475,000 head and Saturday at 235,000. For the week, 2,611,000 head, up 60,000 compared to the week previous but down 87,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on light to moderate demand with 101 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__289.54 -.68
Select Cutout__267.52 -.70
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.27 -.54
CME Lean Hog Index__78.69 +.37
Pork Carcass Cutout__96.35 -1.34
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__59.90 +.08
December live cattle still holding a higher trend now over a month with support at $130 and resistance at $132.50 then $134. November feeders dipped lower on Monday but was the only contract to not hit new recent lows with support at $152 and resistance up around $162. The January contract did make a new low last Monday but able to recover with nearby support now at $157.40 and resistance at $161 then $163. December lean hogs very choppy and trading roughly an $18 range since March with nearby support at $74 and resistance at $79.50.
Grains continued lower on Friday after a turnaround midweek. Wheat futures hit new contract highs early in the week bringing corn with it, but once they turned, the soybeans took over the leadership role to the downside. U.S. weather was wide open for fall harvest to wrap up in many areas this past week. Early this week looks favorable as well with midweek rains in the forecast. South American weather has also been mostly favorable as planting continues and little stress on crops now. Today could be a quiet trading day as USDA will update supply and demand on Tuesday.
For the week, Friday October 29th through Friday November 5th, December Corn -$.15 ¼, March -$.14, January Soybeans -$.44, March -$.41 ½, December KC Wheat -$.07, March -$.06 ½, December Chicago Wheat -$.06 ¼, March -$.05 ¼, December MPLS Wheat -$.42 ¾, March -$.37 ¾, December Soybean Meal +$.10/T, March -$2.30/T
Grains steady to lower overnight with corn finishing 2 lower, soybeans 5 lower and wheat 2 lower to 2 higher. Energies are steady to higher this morning with the US$ lower.
USDA will update supply and demand for the U.S. and world tomorrow morning at 11 AM CST. Below are the average pre report trade estimates…
U.S. corn production at 15.05 BBU, up from 15.02 in October from a yield of 176.9 BPA, up from 176.5. Ending stocks though projected slightly lower than last month at 1.48 BBU. There some chatter about increased ethanol usage as October weekly data was near record high levels.
U.S. soybean production also projected higher at 4.48 BBU compared to 4.44 BBU in October from a yield of 51.9 BPA vs. 51.5 last month. U.S. ending stocks expected to increase by the same amount to 360 MBU.
U.S. wheat ending stocks expected to be unchanged at 580 MBU as world stocks are expected to decrease 0.7 MMT to 276.5 MMT.
World corn stocks also expected to be lower than a month ago at 300.8 MMT and world soybean stocks higher at 105.5 MMT.
USDA announced a daily sale of 150,000 MT or 5.9 MBU of corn sold for delivery to Colombia.
Again, U.S. weather mild and wide open for fall harvest to begin this week as rain chances come midweek from the Great Lakes down into the Southern Plains. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps for the western ½ of the U.S. and below normal temps for the eastern half with above normal moisture in the Northern Plans and Northeast and below normal moisture for the southern half of the country.
December corn trying to hold the short term higher trend with support around $5.40 and resistance at $5.61 then last week’s high at $5.86. January soybeans still holding the long term lower trend with support at last month’s new recent low at $11.95 ¾ and resistance holding last week around $12.60. December KC wheat pulling back after a new contract high last week at $8.14 ½ and support at $7.68. December Chicago wheat also a new contract high last week at $8.07 with support at $7.50. December MPLS wheat another new contract high as well last week at $10.86 ½ and support at $10.05. December Soybean Meal with resistance at $341 then around $345 and support at $323.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700