Date: November 1st, 2021
Cattle futures triple digits lower to end the week as lean hogs finished triple digits higher, both reversing direction midweek. The only two higher contracts for cattle were the expiring October Live and Feeder Cattle contracts. Lean hogs reversed course on Thursday from very bullish export sales and shipments last week, even without China buying this time. Cash feedlot trade last week higher than week previous with trade in TX and KS finally breaking free from two month long $124 live trade up to $126. Trade in the NE and IA $2 to $4 higher at $126 to $127 live and $200 on a dressed basis.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/24/2021 – 10/30/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 29,528 Previous Week: 31,439 Last Year: 8,256
Compared to last week: Feeder steers under 800 lbs sold steady to 3.00 higher; over 800 lbs 4.00-8.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly steady to 3.00 higher, advance over 800 lbs. Steer and heifer calves sold mostly 2.00-5.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle as numbers of feeders continue to dwindle. Heavier weights seeing much of the demand as higher cost of gains is making it cheaper to buy the weight than to put it on. Demand very good for calves this week.
Ft. Pierre Livestock Auction (Friday) – Ft. Pierre, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/29/2021
This Week: 8,804 Last Week: 7,692 Last Year: 5,103
Compared to last Friday’s sale: Steers calves from 350# to 399# were $6.00 to $10.00 higher, 400# to $499 were $4.00 to $6.00 lower with instances of $10.00 lower, 500# to 599# were steady with $2.00 higher, 600# to 649# were $2.00 to $4.00 lower; Heifer calves from 400# to 499# were $4.00 to $8.00 lower, 500# to 549# were steady to $2.00 higher, 550# to 599# were $6.00 to $10.00 lower.
For the week, Friday October 22nd through Friday October 29th, October Live Cattle +$3.27, December +$.95, October Feeder Cattle +$1.25, November -$.32, December Lean Hogs +$2.75, February +$2.05. Boxed Beef, Choice +$3.90 @ $285.72, Select +$.26 @ $263.37, Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.75 @ $96.52.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 120,000 head and Saturday at 60,000. For the week, 668,000 head, up 7,000 from the week previous and up 28,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 555.6 million pounds compared to 548.9 million the week previous and 537.4 million last year. Year to date beef production remains +2.8% compared to last year and slaughter up to +3.2%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 474,000 head and Saturday at 156,000. For the week, 2,551,000 head, down 47,000 compared to the week previous and down 143,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 543.8 million pounds compared to 551.4 the week previous and 586 million last year. Year to date pork production -2.1% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter -2.0%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate to good demand with 113 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__285.72 +.83
Select Cutout__263.37 +.73
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.88 +.92
CME Lean Hog Index__79.89 -.81
Pork Carcass Cutout__96.52 +2.52
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__61.70 -.82
December live cattle holding a higher trend last month with support at $128 and resistance at $132. November feeders with nearby support at $156 then the recent low at $152 with resistance up around $162. December lean hogs very choppy and trading roughly a $18 range since March with support from $71.80, last week’s low to $71.27, the September low, and nearby resistance at $79.50.
Grains quite a bit more relaxed on Friday while very volatile and higher for the week. December MPLS wheat the leader once again on Friday and for the week as the contract set new contract highs 13 days last month. Corn broke into new recent highs and taking out the long-term lower trend that had been in place since May. Soybeans still holding their bearish long-term lower trend. Fall harvest has been put on hold most of last week with heavy rains knocking producers out early in the week east of Mississippi and rains began midweek west. This week and the 6-10 day forecast heading into the weekend were mostly dry. South American planting continues at a normal pace with below normal moisture now in the forecast for both Argentina and Brazil.
For the week, Friday October 22nd through Friday October 29th, December Corn +$.30 ¼, March +$.29 ½, November Soybeans +$.15 ¼, January +$.18 ¾, December KC Wheat +$.11 ¾, March +$.12 ½, December Chicago Wheat +$.16 ¾, March +$.17 ½, December MPLS Wheat +$.39 ¼, March +$.44 ½, December Soybean Meal +$5.20/T, March +$6.00/T
Grains mixed overnight with wheat continuing to lead the charge higher. MPLS finished the overnight 6 to 15 higher, KC and Chicago wheat 6 to 9 higher, corn steady to 3 higher and soybeans 2 to 4 lower.
New daily trading limits in effect today as the CME Group increased wheat limits by a nickel while decreasing corn by the same amount and decreasing soybeans by a dime. The new limits for wheat is up to $.50, corn down to $.35 and soybeans down to $.90.
USDA announced a daily sale of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of soybeans sold for delivery to China. Saudi Arabia booked 1.26 MMT or 46.3 MBU of optional origin wheat, double their initial tender. Egypt tendering for wheat again has Russia looks to be the cheapest today followed by Romania at $364 to $370+/MT delivered or $9.90+/BU.
Mostly just light rains over the weekend in NE and northcentral KS. This week’s forecast calling for much below normal temps across KS and MO with spots of heavy rain midweek in OK and TX. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps for the western 2/3 of the U.S. and below normal temps in the Southeast with below normal moisture still across most of the country, above normal only in the PNW.
December corn breaking the long term lower trend and into a new recent high overnight at $5.74 with resistance next from $5.76 up to $5.94 ¼, the spike high back in August, support around $5.40. November soybeans now in delivery and will expire in a couple weeks holding a lower trend since the early June high. January soybeans the same lower trend with support at $12.25, last month’s new recent low at $11.95 ¾ and resistance at $12.66 then around $12.73. December KC wheat hit a new contract high last week at $7.97 ¼ with support at $7.50. December Chicago wheat closing in the contract high at $7.86 ½ and support at $7.45. December MPLS wheat another new contract high overnight at $10.69 ¾ and support at $10.10. The next upside target is $11.20, the spot high from June 2011. December Soybean Meal support at $320 and resistance just above $334 then up at $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700