Date: October 12th, 2021
Monday’s livestock trade was mixed but a continuation of last week’s trade with cattle mostly higher and hogs lower. Cash feedlot trade a typical quiet Monday as I would expect to see trade pick up midweek. Feeders trying to define a trading range now after the sharp collapse last month. Long term fundamentals are still friendly but there’s still a lot of technical damage to repair first.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/11/2021
This Week: 8,200 Last Week: 6,210 Last Year: 6,867
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00 – 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers unevenly steady. Steer calves 3.00 -5.00 higher. Heifers calves steady to 2.00 higher. Demand is moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/11/2021
This Week: 3,458 Last Week: 4,692 Last Year: 3,797
Compared to last week: Steers 3.00-4.00 lower. Heifers 5.00-7.00 lower. Quality average thru good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 4.00- 6.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 5.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/11/2021
This Week: 3,728 Last Week: 3,662 Last Year: 5,433
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 2.00 – 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 650 lbs. traded 2.00 – 5.00 higher with weights over 650 lbs. trading 4.00 – 9.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 121,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 477,000 head, up 13,000 compared to a week ago and up 3,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Choice and higher on Select on Monday with moderate demand, 107 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__281.12 -2.15
Select Cutout__263.64 +.90
CME Feeder Cattle Index__153.62 -.95
CME Lean Hog Index__91.60 -.35
Pork Carcass Cutout__108.01 +1.02
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__68.62 -.64
October live cattle rebounding since the new lows from the first of October to test nearby resistance around $126 with support at $123. October feeders also rebounding and finding resistance just above $160 with support at $155. October lean hogs still choppy with support around $88 and resistance around $92.50 as deferred contracts work lower to fill the gaps back on September 27th.
Over in the grains it was mixed and fairly quiet trading day expect for soybeans which finished double digits lower and into new recent lows. Export sales have been quiet and the lack of China buying is concerning. There’s been quite a bit of chatter the past few weeks about China’s economic stability and energy needs as some manufacturing has been limited. Specific to their Ag side, hog margins have been slipping lower until yesterday’s spike higher. Crude oil into new recent highs, breaking above $80 for the first time since 2014. Corn held small gains as wheat futures held small losses.
Grains mixed overnight as well with corn finishing 2 lower, soybeans 4 to 5 lower and wheat 1 to 6 higher. Malaysian Palm oil futures flashed a 2% drop overnight as exports are lower than expected so far this month. Again, crude oil into new recent highs yesterday, the nearby contract breaking above $82, but lower this morning with deferred contracts back below the $80 level.
Egypt tendering for wheat today with Romania and Ukraine again the cheapest offers. No soybean sales announced to China but USDA did announce a private sale of 165,000 MT or 6.5 MBU of corn for delivery to Mexico this morning. Weekly export inspections out later this morning and crop progress this afternoon.
Today is also report day with USDA updated monthly supply and demand at 11 AM CST. This will be an update on fall crop production estimates, new crop demand and taking in the old crop adjustments from the quarterly stocks report. The average trade estimates are as follows…
U.S. Corn production at 14.973 BBU with a yield at 176.0 BPA compared to last month’s 14.996 BBU estimate at 176.3 BPA. Ending stocks at 1.432 BBU up from 1.408 BBU.
U.S. Soybean production at 4.415 BBU with a yield at 51.1 BPA up from last month’s 4.374 BBU and 50.6 BPA. Ending stocks up to 300 MBU from last month’s estimate at 185 MBU.
U.S. Wheat ending stocks are expected to be lower than last month at 576 MBU compared to 615 MBU in September.
World stocks are expected to be 1 MMT higher for both corn and soybeans but 2.4 MMT lower for wheat with Canadian and possibly Russian wheat lowered again. SovEcon yesterday estimated 2021 Russian wheat just slightly lower at 75.5 MMT while dropping their Ukraine corn production estimate 1.2 MMT to 38.4.
Scattered rains this week will be beneficial for winter wheat but delaying fall harvest in the Southern Plains, Dakotas and the Midwest. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the northern half of the U.S. and below normal in the Texas with below normal moisture across the entire country expect for the West Coast and Florida.
December corn still holding the long term lower trend but a month long higher trend with nearby support at $5.24 and resistance at $5.48. November soybeans just holding the lower trend with new 6-month lows again overnight at $12.21 ½, support next at $11.85 and resistance at $12.95. December KC wheat holding a higher trend since early July with the contract high at $7.69 on August 13th and support around $7.30. December Chicago wheat also a higher trend with the contract high at $7.86 ½, but resistance first at $7.63 and support being tested at $7.30. December MPLS wheat a new contract high at $9.53 last Friday with nearby support at $9.20. December Soybean Meal into a new low overnight at $315.6 with resistance around $325.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700