Date: October 6th, 2021
Tuesday’s trade focused on continued strength for cattle futures, continued pressure on hogs and reversals for the grains. Live cattle and lean hogs finished mixed but feeders held triple digit gains. Cattle futures oversold after a month and a half of collapsing values. It is still hard to get bullish based off the charts yet though, need another $2 to $3 rally to test nearby resistance levels. Lean hogs were sharply higher last week but follow through this week has been absent. Beef prices mixed but overall still drifting lower. Cash fed cattle trade so far this week mostly steady from $122 live in the North to $124 in the South with the TX Cash pool breaking the $124 ceiling at $124.15. Dressed trade in the North ranging from $193 to $196.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/4/2021
This Week: 6,210 Last Week: 6,000 Last Year: 5,527
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 lower. Demand good for steers, moderate for heifers. Steer and heifer calves unevenly steady.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/4/2021
This Week: 4,692 Last Week: 3,864 Last Year: 3,888
Compared to last week: Steers 3.00-7.00 higher. Heifers 4.00-6.00 higher. Demand good. Quality good thru attractive. Slaughter cows steady. Slaughter bulls 4.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/4/2021
This Week: 3,662 Last Week: 5,120 Last Year: 5,082
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to 4.00 higher. Supply moderate with good demand.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/5/2021
This Week: 2,272 Last Week: 3,267 Last Year: 3,147
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded steady to 4.00 higher with most weights not well tested. Demand was good on a light supply. Trade was active on lighter weight stocker calves and moderate on the heavier weight feeder calves.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/5/2021
This Week: 1,770 Last Week: 2,008 Last Year: 3,665
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves uneven. Steer calves under 600 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 higher, 600 to 700 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 lower. Heifer calves under 500 lbs mostly steady, 500 to 600 lbs 5.00 to 8.00 lower. Yearling feeder steers and heifers over 700 lbs lightly tested. Slaughter cows 2.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter for Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, up 5,000 from last week and up 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter for Tuesday estimated at 476,000 head, also up 5,000 compared to a week ago but down 14,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s slaughter also revised 17,000 head lower to 464,000.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on Choice but higher on Select on good demand with 171 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__287.71 -1.47
Select Cutout__267.78 +2.62
CME Feeder Cattle Index__152.79 -.26
CME Lean Hog Index__94.11 +.06
Pork Carcass Cutout__108.13 -4.27
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__71.26 -.75
October live cattle breaking the lower trend that started after hitting a contract high back on August 24th. Support holding so far around $120 and nearby resistance at $125. October feeders looks similar to live cattle, down $20 from the contract high on August 24th to the low last week. Tuesday’s move and continued follow through this week will break the lower trend. Support is at $152 with nearby resistance at $159. October lean hogs above all major moving averages with a gap from $87.50 to $88.57, support at $89 and resistance at $92.65 then $94.
Over in the grains, all contracts showing reversals from Monday with soybeans and oil sharply higher, wheat lower and corn trading both sides of unchanged throughout the day. The soy complex rally started overnight with Malaysian Palm oil futures hitting a new record high. Canola futures were 2.5% higher, soybean oil 4.5% higher and soybeans 1.5% higher before backing off into the close. Wheat futures took a break after new recent highs on Monday, KC and MPLS back near the contract highs from August. Fall harvest will continue to make big strides this week, some delays possible in the ECB and Southeast due to more rain. Planters are running in Brazil with some rounds of rain expected this week and next. The northern growing areas are still dry along with most of Argentina. This will get more attention in the weeks to come but overall Brazil starting off a little too wet and Argentina a little too dry.
Quite the mixed bag overnight with palm oil futures gapping into new record highs, cotton hitting new 10-year highs, US$ sharply higher, equites sharply lower and energies reversing lower this morning. With all that, grains fairly quiet, trading both sides of unchanged and finishing in the green. Corn finished 2 higher, soybeans 1 higher and wheat 4 to 8 higher.
No USDA daily sales announced. China on holiday this week. Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan all tendering for wheat. Romania, Ukraine and Russia still the cheapest with Bangladesh buying form Russia and Taiwan buying from the U.S. earlier this week.
Less delays this week for fall harvest with weather fairly wide open for most. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. and below normal out West with above normal moisture from the PNW to the Great Lakes and down into the WCB and Southern Plains, below normal only a small pocket in the Southwest and in New England.
December corn still holding a lower trend with nearby support at $5.29 and resistance at $5.48 then $5.60. November soybeans into new 6-month lows yesterday then reversing higher with support at $12.30 then around $12.00 and resistance at $12.65 then $12.95. December KC wheat a new recent high yesterday at $7.64 ¼, contract high at $7.69 on August 13th and support at $7.03. December Chicago wheat looks similar with a new recent high at $7.63 ½, the contract high at $7.86 ½ and support right around the $7 level. December MPLS wheat contract high at $9.37 ½ with nearby support around the $9 level. December Soybean Meal into a new 12-month low, trying to hold $320 support this week with resistance at $341.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700