Date: August 24th, 2022
Livestock futures looking for better direction this week as Monday saw little movement with bearish outside markets. On Tuesday, live cattle futures held small gains but most of the feeder contracts finished around $2 lower as all grains raced higher. Some light cash fed cattle trade developed in TX at $142 live, fully steady compared to a week ago along with light volume in the North at $149 live and $234 dressed, also steady with last week. Lean hogs tried to rally early but fell under heavy selling pressure and finished triple digits lower as pork prices collapsed yet cash still held steady.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/22/2022 – Final
This Week: 7,596 Last Week: 6,001 Last Year: 5,186
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 6.00-8.00 lower, feeder heifers and heifer calves unevenly steady. Steer calves steady. Demand good to moderate. 7 weight index steers averaged $175-$181 and the 8 weight index steers averaged $170-$174.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/22/2022 – Final
This Week: 3,509 Last Week: 1,955 Last Year: 2,225
Compared to last week: Steers 6.00-8.00 higher. Heifers 5.00-7.00 higher. Quality good. Demand good.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/22/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,622 Last Week: 3,000 Last Year: 1,274
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher, except 800 lbs – 850 lbs sold with lower undertones. Feeder heifers sold with lower undertones, except 700 lbs -750 lbs and 800 lbs – 900 lbs steady to 3.00 higher. Demand for this eye appealing offering of green cattle was good. 7 weight index steers averaged $178-$195 and 8 weight index steers averaged $172-$183.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/22/2022 – Final
This Week: 4,310 Last Week: 4,348 Last Year: 4,617
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 4.00-7.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded 3.00-6.00 higher. Supply was light with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $187 and the 8 weight index steers averaged $174-$176.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/23/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,427 Last Week: 2,064 Last Year: 1,429
Compared to last week, steer calves under 450 lbs. traded 15.00-20.00 higher while heavier weight steer and heifer calves traded steady to 4.00 higher. Feeder steers and heifers were not well tested however undertones were steady to firm. Demand was very good on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head, matching last week and up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 480,000 head, up 4,000 compared to a week ago and up 7,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Choice but higher on Select on Tuesday on good demand with 152 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__262.80 -1.72
Select Cutout__238.80 +.44
CME Feeder Cattle Index__180.60 -.06
CME Lean Hog Index__119.18 -.80
Pork Carcass Cutout __105.08 -12.53
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__127.12 +.77, 20,218 head
August live cattle hit a new contract high last week at $142 with support this week at $141. The contract expires next Wednesday though, so barring any major cash breakout, $141 to $142 looks to be the target. October then becomes the front month with a nice steady higher trend, support at $143, resistance around $146 and the contract high up at $147.50. August feeders will expire tomorrow, $180 to $181 catches the recent range and current cash index. The September contract is the only other feeder contract yet to make new contract highs with a new recent high last week at $187.77, the contract high up at $188.25 and breaking nearby support yesterday with the next down at $180. October lean hogs falling off the cliff after new highs on August 11th with support at $91.90 then $86.82 and resistance around $97.
Again, sharply higher throughout the grains yesterday with corn, soybeans and KC Wheat already taking out last week’s highs. Crop conditions last week got worse as most were not expecting any change with better moisture and temps compared to the first half of August. The FSA data dump indicating that NASS may have to decrease planted corn acres along with a posting a sizeable prevent plant number this year. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicked off this week showing very poor corn yields and pod counts in SD and NE and above average but still below a year ago data for OH & IN. Outside markets supportive yesterday with the US$ lower and energies higher. It also helped to see China buying a couple more cargoes of new crop soybeans.
Grains continuing the rally overnight with corn finishing 7 to 9 higher, soybeans 9 to 25 higher and wheat 9 to 18 higher. Equites look steady so far today, US$ higher and energies higher. USDA announced this morning a private sale of 517,000 MT or 19 MBU of new crop soybeans sold the China.
The Pro Farmer crop tour getting a lot of attention this week as in general I would say were are seeing worse than expected data in the ECB. I am not surprised with the SD and NE data but can’t say I’ve seen many stops posting 200+ bu corn samples from OH to IL. USDA estimated yield for IL and IA statewide above 200 BPA last month and OH, IN and MN from 189 to 193 BPA. To get these type of statewide averages, 230+ yield checks would have to be out there and as of last night, the tour had not seen much if any of that.
Heavy rains expected to continue in the Gulf States this week with a chance of 1” rains up through parts of the Southern Plains and WCB heading into the weekend. The updated 6-10 day outlook showing back to above normal temps except in the Southwest and below normal precip for the Northern Plains and parts of the WCB with above normal stretching from the Southwest through the Southern Plains and up into the ECB.
September corn taking out the July high overnight with resistance next up at $6.75 and support at $6.20. The December contract looks the same with resistance at $6.76 and support at $6.20. September soybeans leading the rally with the contract high now in striking distance at $16.06 ¾. November soybeans looking to test the July high at $14.89 with support at $13.76, but the contact high from earlier this summer is still over $1 away at $15.84 ¾. September KC Wheat a new recent low last Thursday at $8.07 ½ to a new recent high overnight at $9.06 with resistance at $9.15. September Chicago wheat still sideways to lower trend with a new recent low last Thursday at $7.25 ¾ and resistance at $8.20. September MPLS wheat also a new recent low at $8.50 with resistance at $9.28.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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