Date: September 27th, 2021
Livestock futures were mixed again last Friday. Cattle futures continue to chop sideways as lean hogs were triple digits higher for week and pork prices held gains. Cash fed cattle trade steady in the South at $123 to $124 live while trade in the North was a little weaker at $123 to $124 live and $194 to $198 dressed.
USDA Cattle on Feed report after the close was neutral to slightly bearish. Cattle on feed totaled 11.2 million head as of September 1, 2021 which was in line with expectations, 1% below last year. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.10 million head, 2% above a year ago with expectations for 1% lower. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.89 million head, slightly below 2020.
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was friendly with all numbers below expectations. The U.S. hog inventory is down 4% from a year ago at 75.4 million head. Breeding inventory was down 2% from last year at 6.19 million head. The June-August 2021 pig crop, at 33.9 million head, was down 6% from 2020. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.05 million head, down 7% from 2020.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/19/2021 – 9/25/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 27,955 Previous Week: 32,873 Last Year: 28,834
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold steady to 3.00 higher, most advance over 800 lbs. Feeder heifers sold mostly steady. Steer calves steady to 5.00 lower. Heifer calves 1.00-3.00 lower. Demand moderate for feeder cattle and calves. More new crop calves on the move to market and these calves seeing limited demand. Slaughter cows and bulls sold 1.00-2.00 lower with moderate to good demand.
For the week, Friday September 17th through Friday September 24th, October Live Cattle +$.12, December +$.62, September Feeder Cattle -$.25, October +$.97, October Lean Hogs +$1.55, December +$1.75. Boxed Beef, Choice -$11.15 @ $303.32, Select -$5.22 @ $274.53, Pork Carcass Cutout +$5.36 @ $110.77.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 110,000 head and Saturday at 54,000. For the week, 641,000 head, down 16,000 from the week previous and down 14,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 527.9 million pounds compared to 539.8 million the week previous and 551.5 million last year. Year to date beef production +3.2% compared to last year and slaughter +3.5%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 472,000 head and Saturday at 237,000. For the week, 2,578,000 head, up 41,000 compared to the week previous but down 28,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 539.1 million pounds compared to 528.9 the week previous and 555.0 million last year. Year to date pork production and hog slaughter remain 1.8% lower compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday continued lower with 104 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__303.32 -2.28
Select Cutout__274.53 -.46
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.04 -.45
CME Lean Hog Index__91.47 -.42
Pork Carcass Cutout__110.77 +6.48
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__76.93 +.40
October live cattle chopping sideways for the majority of this month with a recent low down at $120.85, support down around $120 and resistance at $125. September feeders expire on Thursday and look to settle around $154 to $155. The October contract looks similar to live cattle with range bound trading the past few weeks from $160 down to $154.77. October lean hogs hit a new 6-month low two weeks ago at $79.77 after 3 months of choppy, range bound trading with resistance around $90.
Grains on Friday were mixed with little new direction provided. Pressure on all markets to begin last week but quick a recovery and fall crops finished the week steady while wheat led the way into new recent highs. Weather has been wide open in the WCB for harvest to progress but delayed in the ECB. That switching this week with rains expected across the Plains and the ECB wide open.
For the week, Friday September 17th through Friday September 24th, December Corn -$.00 ½, March +$.00 ¼, November Soybeans +$.01, January +$.01 ¾, December KC Wheat +$.06 ¾, March +$.06, December Chicago Wheat +$.15, March +$.15, December MPLS Wheat +$.15 ½, March +$.14, October Soybean Meal -$2.40/T, December -$3.20/T.
Overnight, grains were fairly quiet and mixed as crude oil back up to $75/barrel and testing resistance. Corn finished the overnight 1 lower, soybeans 2 higher and wheat 2 lower to 2 higher.
Export inspections out later this morning as the majority of the Gulf shippers are slowly getting back up and running. USDA will update crop progress and conditions later this afternoon. It will be interesting to see how far the WCB has advanced and if the ECB is now behind pace. Nationwide corn harvest should be in the mid 20’s with soybean harvest in the mid-teens. Good start for demand this week with USDA announcing a private sale of 334,000 MT or 12.3 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China.
Light and scattered rains over the Corn Belt and Great Lakes this past weekend. The first half of this week showing above normal temps in the Plains and WCB with heavy rains in the forecast towards the end of the week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for most of the U.S. with above normal moisture in the Southern Plains and below normal in the North and the eastern half of the U.S.
December corn still holding a lower trend with nearby support around the $5 level and resistance at $5.30 then up around $5.55. November soybeans also a lower trend with support around $12.60 and resistance at $13.10 then $13.40. December KC wheat recovering but still unable to push past $7.30 this month with nearby support at $7.05. December Chicago wheat looks similar with a high so far this month at $7.33 and support right around the $7 level. December MPLS wheat with nearby support around $9.00 and resistance around $9.30. October Soybean Meal holding a lower trend since May with support at $332 and resistance at $343.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700