Date: September 22nd, 2021
The massive selloff Monday showed little follow through yesterday across all markets with livestock and grain futures quietly mixed and equities and energies mostly steady to higher. Still uncertainty swirling on the Chinese economy which provided some pressure on lean hogs.
Cattle futures trading around $1 on both sides of unchanged. Cash feedlot trade started in the North on light volume at $124 to $126.50 and continues to hold steady. Early morning reports indicating KS and TX trade starting at $124 today, remaining steady, but NE dressed trade at $198 which is $2 lower than last week.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/20/2021
This Week: 6,687 Last Week: 8,759 Last Year: 5,559
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00 – 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers 4.00 – 6.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/20/2021
This Week: 2,638 Last Week: 4,095 Last Year: 3,752
Compared to last week: Steers 3.00-5.00 lower. Heifers 4.00-7.00 higher. Demand good. Quality plain thru attractive. Slaughter cows and Slaughter bulls both steady.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/20/2021
This Week: 4,412 Last Week: 6,059 Last Year: 5,679
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded 2.00 – 4.00 lower. Supply and demand was moderate.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/21/2021
This Week: 2,611 Last Week: 3,127 Last Year: 3,939
Compare to last week, steer and heifer calves under 700 lbs. traded steady to 4.00 lower while heavier weight steers and heifers traded steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was moderate on lighter weight stocker calves and good on heavier weight feeder calves.
Cattle slaughter for Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, down 2,000 from last week but matching last year. Hog slaughter for Tuesday estimated at 467,000 head, down 14,000 compared to a week ago and down 19,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s hog slaughter was also revised, adjusted by 15,000 head lower.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday continued lower on very good demand with 175 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__311.37 -4.29
Select Cutout__278.01 -2.74
CME Feeder Cattle Index__153.77 -.02
CME Lean Hog Index__93.57 -.47
Pork Carcass Cutout__102.76 -.13
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__78.14 -1.18
October live cattle down $12 from the Aug 24th new contract high to last Monday’s new 5-month low. A quick reversal higher last Tuesday but futures holding a lower trend since with nearby support around $120 and resistance at $125. September feeders crashed $18 during the same time period, also hitting a new contract high then down to a new 3-month low last Monday. Feeders have held fairly steady since with nearby support at $151.50 then at $150 and resistance at $156. October lean hogs a new 6-month low last Monday at $79.77 after 3 months of choppy, range bound trading with resistance around $86.
Rumors that China is back lifted soybeans mid-morning and helped support the double digit gains for the day. Pressure on wheat yesterday from SovEcon increasing their Russian wheat production estimate by 200K to now 75.6 MMT on better than expected, and in some areas of Siberia, record yields. USDA this month left their estimate unchanged at 72.5 MMT, this does not include the Crimea region. Beyond that, news was quiet as fall harvest proceeds in the WCB and delayed due to rains in the ECB.
Overnight, grains higher overnight, wheat able to gain back all of yesterday’s losses and supportive outside markets. Corn finished 3 higher, soybeans 2 to 4 higher and wheat 6 to 10 higher.
New fundamental news very limited as weather looks to be wide open of fall harvest over this next week. China back from a 4-day holiday yet no daily sales announced by USDA this morning.
Heavy rains continue in the ECB over the next couple days but the forecast appears to be wide open after that for fall harvest. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps for all and below normal moisture in all major growing areas, above normal only out West. This doesn’t bode well for winter wheat just recently or being planted as the Plains forecast is hot and dry over the next couple weeks.
December corn still holding a lower trend with nearby support around the $5 level and resistance at $5.30 then up around $5.55. November soybeans holding support around $12.60 with resistance at $12.90 then around $13.40. December KC wheat also a lower trend after hitting a new contract high back in mid-August with support at $6.89 and resistance at $7.23. December Chicago wheat looks similar with support at $6.75 and resistance at $7.16 then at $7.45. December MPLS wheat with nearby support around $8.60 and resistance at $9.15. October Soybean Meal holding a lower trend since May with support at $332 and resistance at $343.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700