Date: September 15th, 2021
A partial Turnaround Tuesday with cattle futures triple digits higher and wheat leading the grains with double digit gains. The JBS Grand Island, NE beef processing plant, 6,000 head per day capacity, fire on Sunday only shut down the plant for a day which caused cattle futures to gap lower Monday and reverse higher yesterday. Only a few hundred head of fed cattle cash traded so far this week. TX cash pool yesterday at $124 live which is steady with a week ago but in the North, $196 dressed, not a good start as that is $2 lower than the bottom of last week’s range. Hog futures continued to tumble in the U.S. and in China with a new low yesterday and down over 50% since the beginning of the year but pork prices were higher yesterday led by a surge in hams.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/13/2021
This Week: 8,759 Last Reported 8/30/21: 7,187 Last Year: 8,737
Compared to two weeks ago: Feeder steers and heifers 5.00 – 8.00 lower. Steer calves 8.00 – 10.00 lower. Heifer calves lightly tested and steady to 3.00 lower. Demand light to moderate for all classes.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/13/2021
This Week: 4,095 Last Reported 8/30/21: 2,648 Last Year: 3,812
Compared to 2 weeks ago: Feeder steers 5.00-9.00 lower. Heifers 6.00-8.00 lower. Demand good. Quality good. Slaughter cows 2.00-3.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 1.00 higher.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/13/2021
This Week: 6,059 Last Reported 8/30/21: 4,916 Last Year: 6,075
Compared to the sale 2 weeks ago, feeder steers under 750 lbs. traded 3.00 – 4.00 lower with weights over 750 lbs. trading steady. Feeder heifers traded steady. Supply and demand was moderate.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/14/2021
This Week: 2,518 Last Week: 701 Last Year: 2,789
Compared to the more accurate test from two weeks ago, as last weeks post holiday sale was light, steer and heifer calves were lightly tested but sold steady to 5.00 lower. The majority of the sale was made up of loads and strings of yearlings weighing over 600 lbs which traded steady, except for the 600-650 lb steers selling 5.00-8.00 lower. Demand was good as the quality was attractive throughout the day and the larger groups and runs of green yearlings that were offered will be harder to find as summer comes to an end.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/14/2021
This Week: 3,127 Last Week: 2,330 Last Year: 2,983
Compared to last week, steer calves traded 4.00-8.00 lower with spots 10.00 lower. Heifer calves traded steady to 4.00 lower. Demand was light early and improved throughout the day on a moderate supply. Quality was below average with an abundance of plain, short-weaned calves and bull calves in the offering. Calves weaned 45 days or more were in demand with unweaned or short-weaned calves having a hard time finding a new home.
Cattle slaughter for Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and down 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter for Tuesday estimated at 481,000 head, up 12,000 compared to a week ago but down 2,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday continued lower on good demand with 136 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__322.89 -3.04
Select Cutout__290.62 -1.54
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.09 +.09
CME Lean Hog Index__96.77 -.63
Pork Carcass Cutout__105.20 +4.08
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__84.46 -2.53
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__84.07 -.41
October live cattle down $12 from Aug 24th new contract high to Monday’s new 5-month low. Nearby support is around $120 with resistance at $127. September feeders down $18 during the same time period, also hitting a new contract high but down to only a new 3-month low. Nearby support at $150 with resistance up around $161. October lean hogs a new 6-month low yesterday at $79.77 after 3 months of choppy, range bound trading with resistance around $89.
Over in the grains, Stats Canada updated crop production estimates yesterday morning with lower wheat and canola projections. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projecting Argentine wheat production at 19.2 MMT, USDA last week at 20 MMT. Their corn production estimate up to a record 55 MMT for this upcoming crop with USDA at 53 MMT and soybean production estimate only 44 MMT with USDA at 52 MMT. World wheat values also higher which helped support the grains early Tuesday morning. Exports through the Gulf trying to get back up and running this week as power is back on in the Louisiana facilities hit by Hurricane Ida but heavy rains from Nicholas now delaying activity in both Texas and Louisiana. Corn conditions down 1% nationwide and soybeans unchanged as fall harvest kicking off for many this week or next. Over a third of the nation’s corn crop is mature and soybeans maturing fast with 38% dropping leaves compared to 29% average. Yield reports and export sales are the key items the grains are looking at now.
Overnight, grains continue to firm with corn finishing 1 to 7 higher, soybeans 4 to 8 higher and wheat steady to 4 higher.
South Korea purchased a cargo of optional origin corn overnight. The recent rumors of active China soybean buying turned into some bearish news this morning with cancellations of 328,000 MT or 12.05 MBU of soybean sales announced this morning by USDA of which 7.2 MBU was for delivery to unknown destinations and 4.85 MBU for delivery to China. China has been active buying soybeans, but from Brazil this past week. These cancellations may be stemming from the uncertainties and delays currently at the U.S. Gulf, at least let’s hope that’s the only reason. Cancellations this early in the marketing year is very concerning as the last time it happened were during the trade war from 2018/2019.
Heavy rains continue in the Gulf and Southeast this week with light to up to an inch expected over the next 7 days throughout the Midwest. The 6-10 day outlook showing still holding above normal temps for all except western third of the U.S. with below normal moisture in the Southwest and Southern Plains and above normal moisture in the PNW and eastern half of the U.S.
December corn bouncing off the new 5-month low on Friday at $4.97 ½ to test nearby resistance at $5.28 with the next up around $5.50. November soybeans also hitting a new recent low at $12.62 ¾ last Friday with support down to $12.40 and resistance at $13.05 then around $13.30. December KC holding a lower trend this past month with support at $6.70 and resistance around $7.30. December Chicago wheat a new recent low at $6.77 with support at $6.75 and resistance at $7.25. December MPLS wheat breaking nearby support last week but holding the next around $8.60 and resistance around the $9 level.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700