Date: September 7th, 2021
Cattle futures ended last week triple digits lower while hogs suffered only minor losses. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade for the week was light and spread out last week but held steady to $1 higher. KS and TX trade from $123 to $124 with trade in the North ranging from $125 to $126 live and $200 to $208 dressed. Both beef and pork were under pressure last week as we close out the summer grilling season.
Brazil reported 2 cases of atypical mad cow disease last week and suspended beef exports for at least 10 days. It was found in separate packing plants in two different states but again both were atypical which are lower risk, natural forming in older cows and only sporadic cases. Brazil is currently supplying China with around 40% of it beef imports and it not expected to see China ban imports at this time.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/29/2021 – 9/4/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 26,638 Last Reported 8/16/21: 22,648 Last Year: 25,539
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold unevenly steady. Demand moderate to good. Steer calves mostly steady. Heifer calves steady to 4.00 lower. Numbers somewhat bigger this week as some sales closed next week for the holiday.
For the week, Friday August 27th through Friday September 3rd, October Live Cattle -$4.32, December -$4.40, September Feeder Cattle -$6.17, October -$5.95, October Lean Hogs -$1.15, December -$.95. Boxed Beef, Choice -$8.92 @ $336.42, Select -$11.39 @ $304.13, Pork Carcass Cutout -$8.44 @ $108.15
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 114,000 head and Saturday at 34,000. For the week, 624,000 head, down 27,000 from the week previous and down 11,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 511.4 million pounds compared to 531.9 million the week previous and 533.2 million last year. Year to date beef production +3.7% compared to last year and slaughter +3.9%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 463,000 head and Saturday at 28,000. For the week, 2,398,000 head, down 40,000 compared to the week previous and down 68,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 501.1 million pounds compared to 509.6 the week previous and 517.1 million last year. Year to date pork production -1.6% compared to a year ago with slaughter -1.7%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday continued lower on light demand with 74 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__336.42 -1.50
Select Cutout__304.13 -.84
CME Feeder Cattle Index__157.74 -.20
CME Lean Hog Index__100.06 -1.26
Pork Carcass Cutout__108.15 -1.12
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__88.85 -.06
October live cattle breaking through the higher trend lines last week and into a new recent low with support next at $124 and resistance around $128. September feeders also breaking the higher trend that has held since early May with support next down at $156.50 and resistance around $163. October lean hogs still chopping sideways with support around $88 and resistance at $91.40 with the contract high at $97.97 from June 10th.
Wheat supported by lower world production estimates and another increase in Russian wheat export tax. Gulf exports still down pressuring the fall crops as we begin the new marketing year along with better weather the past couple weeks.
For the week, Friday August 27th through Friday September 3rd, December Corn -$.29 ¾, March -$.27, November Soybeans -$.31 ¼, January -$.26, December KC Wheat -$.01, March -$.00 ¾, December Chicago Wheat -$.06 ¼, March -$.07 ½, December MPLS Wheat -$.05 ¼, March -$.01 ½, October Soybean Meal -$12.30/T, December -$11.40/T.
Overnight, grains were mixed but mostly higher with corn finishing steady to 1 lower, soybeans 6 to 7 higher and wheat steady to 4 higher.
Export inspections out later this morning which will be the combination of last few days of old crop into the new crop marketing year but very light expectations with little to no shipments out of the Gulf. Power is slowly being restored in Louisiana but terminals are still not in operation. USDA will update crop progress and conditions later this afternoon with expectations for steady to slightly improved fall crop conditions.
South Korean flour mills purchased 72,430 MT or 2.7 MBU of U.S. milling wheat. USDA announced a private sale this morning of 327,300 MT or 12 MBU of HRW for delivery to Nigeria.
Decent rains over the weekend from central NE and eastern KS through the southern Corn Belt and light rains in ND to the Great Lakes. This week is still warm with above average in the West and Northern Plains and only light rains expected in the eastern Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for all except the PNW and below normal moisture for all except in the Gulf.
December corn breaking the higher trend line support last week but still above the spike lows in May and July from $5.07 to $5.00 with resistance up at $5.50 to $5.60. November soybeans holding support last week at $12.70 with resistance at $13.21 then $13.36. December KC wheat holding support last week just below the $7 area with resistance at $7.35. December Chicago wheat a new recent low last week at $7.05 ½ with resistance at $7.45. December MPLS wheat holding support at $8.90 with the contract high last month at $9.37 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700