Date: January 25th, 2023
Cattle futures were quietly mixed on Tuesday, honestly all markets were lacking interest. Outside markets traded both sides of unchanged throughout the day. Cash fed cattle trade still holding off until later in the week with smaller showlists and sharply higher asking prices. There continues to be some optimism for higher cash trade this week which is supporting futures while some pressure may come from beef prices sliding lower. It is still a game of leverage as packers try to hold strong margins and producers try to gain some. Live cattle certainly look better than feeders and lean hogs as they continue to hold a higher trend vs. the other two trying to climb out of new recent lows hit last week.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/24/2023 – Final
This Week: 1,955 Last Week: 4,786 Last Year: 4,108
Compared to last week, the higher quality groups of steers sold steady to 3.00 higher and heifers traded uneven with some calves under 500 lbs up to 5.00 higher and those over 500 lbs steady to 5.00 lower. Demand was moderate to good, best for steers, but was affected by the muddy conditions, snow to the north and incoming winter storm forecast for Tuesday evening. 7 weight index steers averaged $171-$178 and 8 weight index steers averaged $172-$176.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/24/2023 – Final
This Week: 1,524 Last Week: 3,549 Last Year: 3,336
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded steady to 4.00 higher. Demand was good on a very light supply.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/23/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,015 Last Week: 7,907 Last Year: 5,257
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher with instance of 11.00, except 900 lbs – 950 lbs steady to 1.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 higher with instances of 7.00. 7 weight index steers averaged $179-$189 and 8 weight index steers averaged $171-$175.
Philip Livestock Auction – Philip, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/24/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,179 Last Week: 0 Last Year: 0
No Feeder Cattle Sale last week, comparisons made to two weeks ago. Feeder Steers under 600 Steady, 600 to 750 Steady to 2.00 higher, other classes of Feeder Steers not well compared, Feeder Heifers 450 to 600 2.00 to 3.00 lower, 600 to 700 Steady to 2.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaged $183-$190 and 8 weight index steers averaged $175.50.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 127,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 484,000 head, down 3,000 compared to a week ago but up 13,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on moderate demand with 138 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__269.64 -1.80
Select Cutout__252.39 -2.10
CME Feeder Cattle Index__177.53 -.16
CME Lean Hog Index__72.11 -.02
Pork Carcass Cutout __80.06 -.86
February live cattle holding the long-term higher trend with the contract high at $159.17 back on December 29th. Last week’s low is now support at $155.37 with nearby resistance around $158. January feeders took out the higher trend last week with a new recent low at $177.55 and will expire tomorrow. March feeders look similar with a new recent low last week at $179.17 and nearby resistance around $184 then the recent high at $188.75. February lean hogs also a new recent low last week at $76.40, yesterday’s low just 1 tick from that, resistance around $80.
Grains also fairly quiet yesterday as corn and wheat gained back some of the losses from Monday but soybeans hung around unchanged throughout the trading session. China is on holiday this week, so no daily export sales to look for. The focus remains on South America with better than expected recent rains in Argentina, more expected this week but then dry again in the extended forecasts. U.S. exports really need to pick up the pace for corn and milo, by this I mean sales and shipments. Soybeans are the leading volume currently which is typical until early spring. Once U.S. soybean volume is displaced by Brazil’s new crop, U.S. corn shipments will hopefully pick up the pace. Speaking of Brazil, new crop soybean harvest is still slightly behind normal pace due to wet conditions, but early yield reports have been impressive and it looks to be a record crop in the making.
Grains mixed overnight as soybeans continue under pressure, wheat rebounds off new lows from Monday and corn stuck in between the two trading both sides of unchanged overnight. Outside markets have equities sharply lower, US$ steady and energies steady with crude not straying too far from $80/barrel this morning. Corn finished the overnight steady, soybeans 4 to 6 lower and wheat 5 to 10 higher. USDA reported a couple private export sales for delivery to unknown destinations…130,000 MT or 4.8 MBU of soybeans and 100,000 MT or 3.9 MBU of corn.
Much below normal temps for the North and heavy rains in the Southeast expected over this next week. The 6–10-day outlook showing below normal temps to remain in the North and covering the western half of the U.S. with normal to above normal moisture across most of the country.
March corn a new recent low two weeks ago at $6.48 ¼ providing support with resistance at last week’s new recent high at $6.88 ¾. March soybeans holding the long-term higher trend with a new recent high last week at $15.48 ½, the contract high from June at $15.72 ¼ and support at $14.65. March KC wheat holding a lower trend since mid-October with support at $8.03 ¼ and resistance $8.66 ¼. March Chicago wheat also holding a lower trend with a new low on Monday at $7.12 ½ and resistance at $7.60. March MPLS wheat also a new recent low on Monday at $8.85 with resistance around $9.20. March soybean meal hit a new contract high last week at $487 with the spot high from August the next upside target at $531.20 and support down around $445.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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