Date: August 18th, 2021
Tuesday ending up being a sell off day across all markets. Livestock futures, grains expect soybean meal, equities and energies all finished lower yesterday. The US$ higher also providing some pressure to the commodities. World turmoil and COVID capturing most of the headlines yesterday. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade starting in the North at steady to $1 higher than last week at $127 live and $197 to $204 dressed. Beef prices still screaming higher, now 20 days in a row with Choice +$57 so far this month.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/16/2021
This Week: 6,341 Last Week: 8,231 Last Year: 6,590
Compared to last week: Feeder steers unevenly steady. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Steer calves 4.00 – 6.00 lower. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand is moderate.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/16/2021
This Week: 2,082 Last Week: 1,895 Last Year: 2,179
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 3.00-5.00 higher. Heifers 8.00-11.00 higher. Demand good. Quality plain thru attractive. Slaughter cows 5.00-7.00 lower. Slaughter bulls steady.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/16/2021
This Week: 4,801 Last Week: 4,122 Last Year: 4,369
Compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded steady. Supply moderate with good demand. The largest volumes, 600 to 650 lb steers avg $162, 700 to 800 lb steers $152 to $160.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/17/2021
This Week: 2,995 Last Week: 2,146 Last Year: 3,728
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded steady to 3.00 higher while yearling steers and heifers traded 2.00-3.00 higher. Demand was good on a moderate supply. Pasture conditions across the area vary from abnormally dry to good. Many are concerned about the lack of grass and water levels in creeks and ponds and are starting to sell calves earlier than normal.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, up 4,000 from last week and up 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 478,000 head, up 6,000 compared to last week but down 3,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday continued higher on good demand with 122 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__338.06 +8.26
Select Cutout__306.77 +3.22
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.91 -.63
CME Lean Hog Index__109.64 -.03
Pork Carcass Cutout__118.12 -1.23
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__98.32 +2.64
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend, contract high back on June 16th at $125.77, nearby support at $121. August is in delivery and will expire at the end of the month. The October contract also holding a higher trend but sideways now for the past couple months from a recent low in July at $123 to the contract high at $130.47. Since July 23rd that trading range has come in even tighter from $125.82 to $129.87. August feeders trending higher since early May, but into a new recent low yesterday and testing that trendline at $156.55. Support next down at $154 with resistance at $160. October lean hogs choppy, sideways trade with support around $83 and resistance at $89 then $94.
Over in the grains, wheat was the first to reverse course stemming from a crash lower in European wheat values. All three U.S. wheat varieties challenged contract highs prior to reversing lower. As of the close, it appears to be just a technical correction as fundamental news is still very friendly. Corn and soybeans followed lower after midday weather runs continued to show decent chances for rains in the Northern Plains and WCB later this week. On a positive note, daily sales announced by USDA again yesterday morning for new crop soybeans. This marks 9 days in a row on daily sales to China and/or for unknown destinations totaling nearly 80 MBU. Crop conditions Monday afternoon also dropped for both corn and soybeans vs. expectations for at least stable if not improving conditions.
Grains mixed overnight trading both sides of unchanged with corn finishing 2 higher, soybeans steady to 3 lower and wheat 2 lower to 6 higher.
Another couple new crop soybean cargoes sold to China off the PNW overnight. USDA announced this morning 131,000 MT or 4.8 MBU bringing the 10 day consecutive total of new crop soybeans sold to China or for unknown destinations up to 84.67 MBU.
Pro Farmer crop tour continues with checks in IL and IA today. Yesterday’s recap showed both NE and IN corn yields higher than last year and their three-year average but soybean pod counts lower. It was noted that over 50% of the fields checked in NE were irrigated compared to only 40% last year. USDA last week estimated both corn and soybean yields in NE and IN higher than a year ago. When looking at the yields, it is best not to compare them directly with USDA from last week but to look at the trend vs. last year and average.
Heavy rains still in the forecast for primarily Friday in the WCB and portions of the Northern Plains. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for all except the Northern Plains with above normal moisture only in northern MN and WI and below normal moisture for the western half of the U.S and the Southeast.
The squeeze or consolidation still on for both corn and soybeans. September corn with support at $5.40, a new recent high last week at $5.89 ½ and resistance above that at $6.26. December corn a new recent high last week at $5.94 ¼, resistance next at $6.11 ¼ and support from $5.62 to $5.50, all major moving averages converging. September soybeans now the front month but not highly traded with support at $13.50 and resistance around $13.90. November soybeans tested the upper trendline around $13.80 this week with all major moving averages now converged from $13.52 to $13.46 ½. September KC wheat hitting a new contract high last Friday at $7.56 ¼ with support around $7.00. September Chicago wheat also a new contract high on Friday at $7.74 ¾ with support at $7.09. September MPLS wheat a new contract high on Friday at $9.53 with support around $9.00.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700