Date: August 16th, 2021
Livestock futures finished the week mixed with cattle futures lower and lean hogs higher. Negotiated cash cattle trade last week was fully steady with the week previous but wide ranges. Trade in the South ranged from $119 to $125 live, done mostly at $121. Northern trade was reported at $125 to $126 live and $198 to $204 dressed with most at $198. Nearly 5 months with the cash trade in KS where the bulk of the trade has been from $119 to $122. Beef prices have ranged nearly $60 in that same timeframe with trade still screaming higher now eighteen consecutive days.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/8/2021 – 8/14/2021
Current Week: 27,018 Last Week: 27,920 Last Year: 26,899
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 1.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Demand moderate for feeder cattle despite cattle futures trading mostly in the red this week. Steer calves sold 2.00-6.00 lower, most declines under 500 lbs. Heifer calves 1.00- 4.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for calves. Supplies beginning to include more un-weaned calves.
For the week, Friday August 6th through Friday August 13th, August Live Cattle -$.25, October +$.25, August Feeder Cattle -$1.80, September -$.25, October Lean Hogs -$1.07, December -$1.57. Boxed Beef, Choice +$28.57 @ $324.83, Select +$20.93 @ $298.02, Pork Carcass Cutout +$2.01 @ $125.68.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 119,000 head and Saturday at 58,000. For the week, 639,000 head, down 2,000 from the week previous and down 5,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 521.6 million pounds compared to 522.7 million the week previous and 536.7 million last year. Year to date beef production and slaughter now both +4.2% compared to last year.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 471,000 head and Saturday at 77,000. For the week, 2,415,000 head, up 94,000 compared to the week previous but down 146,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 505.7 million pounds compared to 486.6 the week previous and 540.2 million last year. Year to date pork production now -1.1% compared to a year ago with slaughter -1.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday continued higher on light to moderate demand with 91 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__324.83 +6.90
Select Cutout__298.02 +7.71
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.83 -.42
CME Lean Hog Index__109.90 -.29
Pork Carcass Cutout__125.68 +6.31
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__97.97 -2.15
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend, contract high back on June 16th at $125.77, nearby support at $121. August is in delivery and will expire at the end of the month. The October contract also holding a higher trend but sideways now for the past couple months from $123 to $130.47. August feeders trending higher since early May with the contract high on July 26th at $163.15 and support around $157. October lean hogs now the front month with choppy sideways trade, support around $83 and resistance at $89 then $94.
Grains mostly higher to end last week and higher week over week. The friendly monthly crop report by USDA on Thursday providing most of the support for the week. Soybean export business is picking back up with 7 consecutive days of daily sales announced by USDA for a total of nearly 63 MBU sold to China and for unknown destinations. U.S. weather still showing above normal temps but now above normal moisture for most of the Midwest which is not as threatening as the past couple weeks. Wheat futures hit new contract highs on Friday as world wheat values continue to rally and world production estimates are lower. USDA cut world wheat production estimates by 15.2 MMT or 559 MBU on Thursday, 1.34 MMT for the U.S., 7.5 MMT for Canada and 12.5 MMT in Russia. Russian wheat prices jumped $20/MT or $.54/BU just last week.
For the week, Friday August 6th through Friday August 13th, September Corn +$.13 ¼, December +$.16 ½, November Soybeans +$.28 ¼, January +$.28, September KC Wheat +$.36 ½, December +$.37 ½, September Chicago Wheat +$.43 ¼, December +$.41, September MPLS Wheat +$.28, December +$.26 ¼, September Soybean Meal +$1.80/T, December +$2.70/T.
Grains somewhat quiet overnight with steady to higher trading. Corn finished the overnight steady, soybeans 6 to 8 higher and wheat 3 to 6 higher.
Export inspections out today at 10 am and at 11 am July NOPA crush report will be released which could be the lowest July total since 2017. The average trade estimate is 159.1 MBU compared to 152.4 MBU in June and 172.8 MBU in July of 2020. This afternoon will be USDA’s Crop Progress and Conditions report which should show steady to slight improvements in fall crop conditions.
USDA announced a private sale this morning of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of new crop soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. This makes it now 8 days in row for new crop soybean sales totaling 1.843 MMT or 67.7 MBU to China and unknown destinations.
Rains over the weekend in NE, KS and the Southeast. Heavy rains now in the forecast for later this week in the WCB, Northern Plains and Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for all except the PNW and Southwest with above normal moisture across most of the Corn Belt and below normal moisture for the western half of the U.S.
September corn with support at $5.40, a new recent high last week at $5.89 ½ and resistance above that at $6.26. December corn with support at $5.40, a new recent high last week at $5.94 ¼ and resistance next at $6.11 ¼. September soybeans now the front month but not highly traded with support at $13.50 and resistance around $13.90. November soybeans into a new recent high overnight at $13.78 with support around $13.30 and resistance at $13.80. September KC wheat hitting a new contract high last Friday at $7.56 ¼ with support around $7.00. September Chicago wheat also a new contract high on Friday at $7.74 ¾ with support at $7.09. September MPLS wheat also a new contract high on Friday at $9.53 with support at $9.10.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700