Date: August 11th, 2021
Cattle futures were mixed yesterday while hogs remain on a lower trend recently. The nearby August contract will expire this week but all other contracts are testing support levels from early July. Both fats and feeders continue to hold their higher trend as fundamentals remain friendly and beef prices are soaring again. Negotiated cash feedlot trade started steady to $5 higher in the North on very light volume. Trade in Iowa reported on Monday at $125 live and $202 dressed.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/9/2021
This Week: 8,231 Last Week: 7,637 Last Year: 8,386
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers unevenly steady. Demand moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/9/2021
This Week: 1,895 Last Week: 1,907 Last Year: 2,257
Compared to last week: Steer calves 5.00-8.00 higher. Feeder steers 4.00-6.00 lower. Heifers 5.00-7.00 lower. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 3.00-4.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 4.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/9/2021
This Week: 4,122 Last Week: 4,295 Last Year: 4,442
Compared to last week feeder steers under 700 lbs. traded 2.00 – 4.00 lower. Weights over 700 lbs. traded steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to 4.00 higher.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/10/2021
This Week: 2,146 Last Week: 3,006 Last Year: 2,664
Compared to last week, steer calves traded 3.00-5.00 lower while heifer calves traded uneven from 2.00 lower to 2.00 higher. Yearling steers traded steady to 3.00 higher with yearling heifers not well tested. Demand was good on heifers calves and yearling steers and moderate on steer calves.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, down 2,000 from last week but up 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 478,000 head, up 9,000 compared to last week and up 22,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s cattle slaughter though was adjusted lower by 6,000 head.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday continued higher on good demand with 128 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__305.32 +5.52
Select Cutout__284.61 +3.80
CME Feeder Cattle Index__156.33 +.03
CME Lean Hog Index__110.77 -.44
Pork Carcass Cutout__122.40 -1.84
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__99.20 +.14
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend, contract high back on June 16th at $125.77 with nearby support at $122. August feeders trending higher since early May with the contract high on July 26th at $163.15 and support around $157. August lean hogs holding a higher trend since late June, expiring this Friday. The higher trend for the October contract taken out last week with support being tested now around $83 and resistance at $89.
Soybeans and wheat led the grains higher yesterday which pulled corn to near steady after trading lower most of the session. Corn conditions improved last week by 2% as most were expecting conditions to remain unchanged. It is still a story of West vs. East as better rain chances remain in the ECB this week and hot and dry dominate the West. Winter wheat futures are trying to stay balanced with a flat corn market recently but rising world wheat values.
Grains mixed overnight with finishing 5 to 6 higher, soybeans 15 to 17 higher and wheat 1 lower to 2 higher. Edible oils leading the charge higher again with palm oil into new highs and soybean oil reversing higher today after a month long lower trend. Outside markets mixed also with the US$ lower, equities and gold higher but crude lower. China continues to buy U.S. new crop soybeans with another 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU sale announced by USDA this morning. This is the 5th consecutive day with daily soybean sales totaling 34.1 MBU to China and unknown destinations.
USDA will update supply and demand on Thursday with most looking for lower fall crop yields but possibly lower old crop demand to offset those production decreases, specifically corn exports and soybean crush. No objective yields until September when USDA puts boots on the ground for yield checks and progress. The August report in terms of production will be an estimate from producer surveys, weather and satellite imagery. There is a chance USDA will leave the yield estimates unchanged again this month.
The Average Trade Estimates are as follows…
U.S. Corn production at 15.004 BBU, last month at 15.165 BBU
U.S. Corn yield at 177.6 BPA, July’s trendline yield at 179.5 BPA
20/21 U.S. Corn ending stocks at 1.096 BBU, slightly higher than last months’ 1.082 BBU
21/22 U.S. Corn ending stocks at 1.297 BBU, still lower than July’s 1.432 BBU
U.S. Soybean production at 4.375 BBU, last month at 4.405 BBU
U.S. Soybean yield at 50.4 BPA, July’s trendline yield at 50.8 BPA
20/21 U.S. Soybean ending stocks at 148 MBU, slightly higher than last month’s 135 MBU
21/22 U.S. Soybean ending stocks at 160 MBU, also slightly higher than July’s 155 MBU
U.S. Wheat production at 1.723 BBU, last month at 1.746, all from reduction in Spring Wheat
21/22 U.S. Wheat ending stocks at 645 MBU, down from July’s 665 MBU
20/21 World Corn ending stocks at 278.7 MMT, last month at 279.86 MMT
21/22 World Corn ending stocks at 288.2 MMT, last month at 291.18 MMT
20/21 World Soybean ending stocks at 91.4 MMT, last month at 91.49 MMT
21/22 World Soybean ending stocks at 94.7 MMT, last month at 94.49 MMT
20/21 World Wheat ending stocks at 290.5 MMT, last month at 290.18 MMT
21/22 World Wheat ending stocks at 288.2 MMT, last month at 291.68 MMT
The only world production estimate surveyed by Reuters this month was Brazil’s 20/21 Corn production at 88.7 MMT, down from July’s 93.0 MMT. Brazil’s CONAB updated production estimates Tuesday morning. They lowered total corn production to 86.65 MMT vs 93.385 MMT in July and 96.38 MMT in June and 106.41 MMT back in May. In soybeans, production was increased slightly to 135.978 MMT vs 135.912 MMT in July yet exports were reduced 3.27 MMT to 83.42 MMT. This along with Chinese demand will be monitored in Thursday’s update.
Excessive heat still around for the next couple days across the Midwest with rains isolated to the ECB this week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for all major growing areas, below normal temps in the West. Above normal moisture creeping into the Northern Plains, the western third of the U.S. and in the Southeast with below normal now around the Great Lakes and northern portions of IL through OH.
December corn continues to tighten or squeeze with roughly a $.40 trading range since mid-July. Nearby support is at $5.40 and resistance around $5.70. November soybeans also showing a squeeze or wedge with support holding last week around $13.10 and resistance at $13.60 then $13.80. September KC wheat hitting a new recent high last week at $7.19 with the next resistance up around $7.25 and support at $6.87. September Chicago wheat also a new recent high last week at $7.38 ¾, resistance next around $7.50 and support at $7.08. September MPLS wheat with support at $8.70, resistance at $9.27 and the contract high from July 19th at $9.44 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700