Date: August 2nd, 2021
Livestock futures were mixed for the week, feeders mostly under pressure as grains were higher most of the week. Negotiated cash feedlot trade last week steady to $2 higher than the week previous with trade in the South at $120 live and in the North from $122 to $124 live and $196 to $200 dressed. Volume was light though indicating packers still have sufficient supply on hand. Beef prices rallied last week ahead of Labor Day demand. Higher trends are still holding for all livestock futures contracts and fundamentals, beyond higher feed costs, are friendly as well.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/25/2021 – 7/31/2021
Current Week: 26,768 Last Week: 28,027 Last Year: 24,110
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00-5.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Steer calves 4.00-6.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 5.00 higher. Demand very good for calves this week, despite the high heat and humidity.
For the week, Friday July 23rd through Friday July 30th, August Live Cattle +$.57, October +$.05, August Feeder Cattle -$1.90, September -$.72, August Lean Hogs -$1.15, October -$4.60. Boxed Beef, Choice +$11.83 @ $278.46, Select +$9.25 @ $259.19, Pork Carcass Cutout +$1.52 @ $123.89.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 114,000 head and Saturday at 58,000. For the week, 649,000 head, up 1,000 from the week previous and up 13,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 528.3 million pounds compared to 527.2 million the week previous and 530 million last year. Year to date beef production +4.6% compared to last year with slaughter +4.5%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 439,000 head and Saturday only 12,000. For the week, 2,327,000 head, down 5,000 compared to the week previous and down 210,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 487.3 million pounds compared to 488.7 the week previous and 533.2 million last year. Year to date pork production now -0.6% compared to a year ago with slaughter -0.8%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday sharply higher on moderate demand with 117 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__278.46 +3.24
Select Cutout__259.19 +2.37
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.04 +.04
CME Lean Hog Index__112.08 +.06
Pork Carcass Cutout__123.89 +.02
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__103.60
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__101.70 -.88
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend, contract high back on June 16th at $125.77, nearby support around $121 and resistance at $124. August feeders trending higher since early May with a new contract high last week at $163.15 and support at $157 then $155. August lean hogs holding a month long higher trend, volume already getting thin with expiration on August 13th. Nearby support at $105 and resistance at $108.
Grains futures flashed lower last Friday as a wide system brought scattered rains over the WCB and end of the month balancing of positions. This pulled corn back to near unchanged for the week and new crop soybeans lower for the week, but all three classes of wheat held weekly gains. August weather will be critical for kernel and pod fill especially with the recent excessive heat and dry conditions throughout the WCB. The 6–10-day outlook heading into the weekend continued to show hot and dry for most major growing areas but above normal moisture starting to show for primarily the ECB.
For the week, Friday July 23rd through Friday July 30th, September Corn -$.00 ¼, December +$.02 ¼, August Soybeans +$.13 ¾, November -$.02 ½, September KC Wheat +$.27 ¼, December +$.27, September Chicago Wheat +$.19 ¾, December +$.19 ½, September MPLS Wheat +$.21 ¼, December +$.19 ¼, August Soybean Meal -$1.00/T, December -$2.30/T.
Grains were mixed overnight with continued pressure on soybeans, corn trading both sides and wheat higher as Russian wheat prices continue to rally. Export trade the talk of the wheat markets this morning, none from the U.S., but Saudi Arabia purchased over 500,000 MT with Egypt, Jordan and Algeria tendering this week. Corn finished the overnight steady to 2 lower, soybeans 6 to 10 lower and wheat 6 to 17 higher.
U.S. weather remains the main driver of course but also not the only driver. Outside markets mixed today with equities pointing higher, the US$ lower but energies lower. COVID concerns also still present and pressuring markets. Crop progress and conditions will be updated later this afternoon with the market looking for fall crop conditions to drop another 1% to 2%. Scattered rains over the weekend for all except ND. Heavy rains in the forecast for the Southeast this week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for all major growing areas, below normal out West, with above normal moisture now centered on the Great Lakes and extended into the Corn Belt and below normal across the Plains, Southeast and Southwest.
September corn with support at $5.20 and resistance at $5.80. December corn with support being tested around $5.40 and resistance up around $5.70. August soybeans now in delivery. November soybeans with support around $13.10 and resistance at $13.80. September KC wheat breaking into new recent highs, $6.91 ¾ overnight with the next resistance up around $7.25 and support at $6.60. September Chicago wheat also a new recent high overnight at $7.19 ¾ with support around $6.70. September MPLS wheat support at $8.70 and the contract high from July 19th at $9.44 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700