Date: June 29th, 2021
Cattle began this week sharply lower as grains reversed sharply higher. Lean hog futures finished the day locking at the $3 limit higher. Today’s limits are expanded to $4.50. July touched support last Friday at the $100 level finding enough technical support to reverse higher and able to continue that rally to begin this week. Cash prices were sharply lower yesterday but pork prices sharply higher. Some light and regional cash feedlot trade on Monday in NE at $126.50 live and in KS at $122 live, both steady with last week.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 06/26/2021
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
Last Week: 141,100 47,500 25,900 214,500
Last Week: 151,100 81,200 57,100 289,400
Year Ago: 155,900 55,000 60,600 271,500
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold mostly steady to 5.00 higher, with some or the largest gains in the North Central regions.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/28/2021
This Week: 8,740 Last Week: 5,723 Last Year: 10,786
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 4.00 – 6.00 higher, with the most advance on weights over 700 lbs. Feeder heifers traded 1.00 – 5.00 higher. A special yearling sale was included in the offering. Supply heavy with demand good to very good.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/28/2021
This Week: 9,200 Last Week: 8,843 Last Year: 9,182
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 3.00-5.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle despite higher corn futures and lower feeder futures. Steer calves lightly tested and few sales 4.00 higher. Heifer calves 2.00-8.00 higher. Demand good for calves.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 118,000 head, matching last week and up 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 454,000 head, down 14,000 compared to last week and down 12,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday sharply lower on moderate demand with 119 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__297.43 -7.13, down the last 13 consecutive trading days
Select Cutout__273.96 -2.22
CME Feeder Cattle Index__146.18 -.11
CME Lean Hog Index__114.19 -1.24
Pork Carcass Cutout__115.13 +5.09 on sharply higher hams and bellies
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__115.88 -3.90
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__112.53 -4.36
June live cattle a new recent high last week at $124.22, the contract high from April 8th at $125.62 and support at $119. June in delivery and set to expire Wednesday. August live cattle hit a new contract high on June 16th at $125.77 with support at $120.50. August feeders with nearby resistance around $160, the contract high at $162.40 and support at $153.60. July lean hogs again bouncing off support at $100 last week, closing a gap yesterday with resistance at $109.60 then at $112.
Corn and soybeans reversing higher on Monday and MPLS wheat continues to rally making new contract highs. The rains last weekend were not enough in some areas, mainly the North and West Corn Belt but too much in other areas such as MO and IL where flooding is ongoing. This along with a similar mixed forecast and oversold conditions from last week helped support the grains on Monday. Grains Inspected for export for the week ending June 24th were all under expectations and their respected weekly average need to meet the current USDA estimate. Corn inspections totaled 39.7 MBU with China taking a third of that followed by Japan and Mexico. China still has 255 MBU of outstanding corn to be shipped with 2 months left in this marketing year. Grain sorghum inspections totaled only 1.5 MBU with most of that going to Sudan. Soybean inspections at 3.8 MBU with Mexico the primary destination. Wheat inspections half of the week’s previous total at 10.5 MBU and the average needed per week at 17.2 MBU.
USDA updated Crop Progress and Conditions after the close with continued deterioration in the corn and spring wheat crops as most felt conditions would be stable to slightly improved. Corn G/E conditions down another 1% this past week to 64% with expectations for 66% and last year’s 73% rated G/E. Corn silking at 4% nationwide compared to 6% 5-year average. Soybeans emerged up 5% to 96%, 94% last year and 82% 5-year average and soybeans blooming up 9% to 14%, 13% last year and 11% 5-year average. Soybean G/E conditions unchanged at 60%, expectations at 61%, last year 71% G/E. Spring wheat headed up 21% to 48%, 33% last year and 39% average. Spring wheat G/E conditions down 7% to 20% and P/VP up 2% to 39%. Grain sorghum planted up 7% to 95%, matching last year and the average, G/E ratings down 3% to 70%. Winter wheat harvest +16% to 33%, 39% last year and 40% avg, KS +28% to 41%, OK +30% to 80% complete.
Grains steady to higher overnight on fairly quiet trading. Corn finished 3 to 4 higher, soybeans 5 to 6 higher and wheat steady to 13 higher.
Quarterly stocks and acreage reports will be released on Wednesday at 11 am CST. Wednesday is also first notice day on July futures and marks the end of the month/quarter. Weather remains the driving force but the fresh fundamental news will move the markets. The average pre report estimates indicate the market thinks corn planted acreage will be 2.7 million higher than USDA’s March Intentions at 93.8 million acres and soybean planted acres 1.3 million higher at 88.95. Stats Canada acreage report was out this morning with slightly higher canola acres than expected but lower corn, soybean and oats acreage vs. expectations.
Excessive heat continues in the PNW and Northern Plains this week with heavy rains in the Southeast, a portion of the Southern Plains and ECB. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps from the Southern Plains to the East Coast clipping most of the ECB and above normal from the West Coast to the Great Lakes covering parts of the WCB with above normal precip in the South and East and below normal in the North and West.
July corn holding a lower trend since June 10th but still holding the long term higher trend with resistance at $6.88 and support at $6.30. December corn with nearby resistance around $5.70 and support at $5.14. July soybeans have taken out the long term higher trend and down over $3 from the contract high in May to the new recent lows with resistance at $14.50 and support holding so at $13.25. November soybeans also breaking the long term higher trend with resistance around $13.40 and support around at $12.60. July KC wheat with support at $6.00 and resistance at $6.30. July Chicago wheat with support at $6.34 and resistance at $6.68. July MPLS wheat the breakout leader higher with a new contract high overnight at $8.60 ½ and support at $7.90. July soybean meal into a new 9-month low last week with support around $340 and resistance at $375.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700