Date: June 23rd, 2021
Cattle futures held triple digit gains but hogs faded into the close, still able to hold small gains though, which stopped the 10-day consecutive slide lower. Corn and soybeans tried hold steady for part of the day but pulled sharply lower by mid-morning. This along with the upcoming Senate Ag Committee hearings on cattle markets and transparency was supportive yesterday. Also supportive, light volume cash feedlot trade in the North on Monday at $126.50 live and $197 to $200 dressed, $2 to $5 higher than a week ago. The Cash Pool trade in TX on Tuesday resulted in 739 head at $122 which is steady with a week ago. KS trade picked up right after at $125 to mostly $126 which is $3 to $4 higher than last week.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/21/2021
This Week: 5,723 Last Week: 4,947 Last Year: 5,711
Compared to last week, feeder steers traded 2.00 – 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded 3.00 – 8.00 higher, with the most advance on the heavier weights. Supply moderate with very good demand.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/21/2021
This Week: 8,843 Last Week: 10,458 Last Year: 7,889
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 1.00 – 3.00 lower. Lightly tested steer and heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand moderate to good.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/22/2021
This Week: 2,582 Last Week: 1,792 Last Year: 2,653
Compared to last week, steers sold steady to 6.00 higher with the advance on those over 600 lbs. Heifers sold slightly uneven with calves under 600 lbs selling 3.00-5.00 lower, over 600 lbs mostly steady.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/22/2021
This Week: 5,009 Last Week: 2,682 Last Year: 3,678
Compared to last week steer and heifer calves traded 3.00-9.00 higher with spots 12.00 higher. Yearling steers and heifers traded 3.00-7.00 higher with spots 10.00 higher. Demand was good on a heavy supply including several multi pot-load drafts of yearlings.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, matching last week and up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 475,000 head, down 9,000 compared to a week ago but up 16,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values continue sharply lower on moderate demand with 108 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__315.75 -5.45
Select Cutout__279.75 -1.17
CME Feeder Cattle Index__145.24 +.66
CME Lean Hog Index__120.73 +.05
Pork Carcass Cutout__107.83 -12.93 with bellies -59.30
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__131.75 +.03
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__128.04 +4.47
USDA’s cold storage report released after the close yesterday with total pounds of beef in freezers on May 31 down 8% from the previous month and down 1% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 1% from the previous month but down 1% from last year. Total frozen poultry supplies were up 3% from the previous month but down 12% from a year ago.
June live cattle a new recent high yesterday at $124.22, the contract high from April 8th at $125.62 and support around $118. June in delivery and set to expire next Wednesday. August live cattle hit a new contract high last week at $125.77 with support around $119. August feeders very choppy the past few months with the back and forth grains. August feeders hit a new 2-month high last week at $160.15, the contract high is at $162.40 and support at $153. July lean hogs off $17.90 from the contract high at $123.60 earlier this month to Monday’s new recent low with nearby resistance around $117 and support next at $104.50.
Deteriorating crop conditions reported by USDA Monday afternoon were able to give grains a boost in early trading yesterday, but MPLS wheat the only to hold gains. Spring wheat conditions dropped a staggering 10 points which completely flip flopped the P/VP vs. G/E. Corn and soybean conditions down 2 to 3 points nationally which was a little more than expected. There was some talk China may have stepped in to buy another 5 to 8 new crop soybean cargoes. Soybean oil closed higher for the third day in a row while meal was sharply lower. Wheat harvest has kicked into high gear across the Southern Plains with the recent hot and dry weather pushing crop maturity. It wouldn’t surprise me to KS wheat harvest over half to near 2/3 down by this time next week. Harvest pressure and declining world values keeping a lid on in any rally chances for winter wheat at this time.
Grains were mixed overnight with the nearby July corn and soybean contracts holding small gains but new crop finishing 3 lower and wheat finishing 5 to 14 higher.
USDA followed up rumors again announcing a private sale this morning of 330,000 MT or 12.1 MBU of new crop soybeans for delivery to China. USDA will update Quarterly Stocks and Fall Crop Acreage next Wednesday which is also the end of the month and quarter and first notice day for July grain futures. Remember to have positioned rolled or exited by then as the nearby July contracts will no longer have any daily trading limits and volume will be getting thin.
Scattered rains over the past 24 hours in eastern NE through central IA into the northern half of IL but the driest parts of IA still missed. Over this next week, heavy rain in the forecast for the majority of the Corn Belt, but the dry areas in the Dakotas, Southern MN and Northern IA continue to be short changed. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps from NM to SC and up into KS and MO with above normal temps dominating the PNW, West Coast and Northern Plains. Below normal moisture is forecasted over the NW quarter of the U.S. with above normal in the Southwest and eastern third of the U.S. The 8-14 day outlook, June 30 – July 6, shows a very similar forecast as the WCB looks be hot and dry while the ECB should see below normal temps and above normal precip.
July corn holding a lower trend since June 10th but still holding the long term higher trend with resistance from $6.65 to $6.70 and support at $6.30. December with nearby resistance from $5.70 to $5.75 and support at $5.30. July soybeans have taken out the long term higher trend and down over $3 from the contract high in May to the new recent lows last week with resistance at $14.50 and support at $13.23 ½ which was the trading range from last Thursday. November soybeans also breaking the long term higher trend with resistance around $13.40 and support at $12.92. July KC wheat with support at $5.84 and resistance at $6.20. July Chicago wheat with support at $6.37 and resistance at $6.73. July MPLS wheat with support at $7.65 and resistance up at $8.00 then the contract high at $8.43 ½. July soybean meal into a new 7-month low last week with support next at $350 and resistance from $372 to $382.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700