Date: June 9th, 2021
Livestock futures mixed yesterday with live cattle and hogs mostly higher but feeders again under pressure with grains higher. Cash feedlot trade picked up on moderate volume in NE and IA at $120 live and $191 dressed, steady now for almost 2 months. June lean hogs into a new contract high yesterday and the July contract matching the contract high from Monday. Pork production, price and demand continue to build and as we hit new highs daily some chatter began yesterday about the Smithfield pork processing plant in South Dakota. The United Food and Commercial Workers Union headed into contract negotiations Tuesday with a 98% vote approving a strike. The Smithfield plant produces roughly 5% of the nation’s pork supply which would be a major blow to supply if shut down this week.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/8/2021
This Week: 3,095 Last Week: 1,848 Last Year: 2,130
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher and demand was good. Supply was moderate to heavy following the holiday last week with dry weather to move cattle and temps warming up. Overall, the quality was good and the majority of cattle were in moderate flesh.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/8/2021
This Week: 3,541 Last Week: 2,821 Last Year: 2,805
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded steady to 3.00 higher. Yearling steers and heifers traded 2.00-4.00 higher. Demand was good on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, up 26,000 from last week and up 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 485,000 head, up 95,000 compared to a week ago and up 41,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values Tuesday steady on Choice and lower on Select on moderate to good demand with 108 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__338.61 +.01
Select Cutout__306.18 -2.99
CME Feeder Cattle Index__140.12 -.95
CME Lean Hog Index__117.77 +1.27
Pork Carcass Cutout__134.94 +.21
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__119.71 +4.91
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__112.34 +1.93
June live cattle choppy sideways trading the past few weeks, expect for the sharp collapse and immediate rebound last week due to the JBS cyber-attack, with resistance holding at $118 and support at $116 then $114.70. August feeders choppy as well with a nearby lower trend, resistance at $152 and support down at $145. June lean hogs expire next Monday and volume getting thin with a new contract high at $120.75 yesterday and support around $114. The July contract now with support at $118.50, the contract high matched yesterday at $123.60 and the next upside target at $133.87, the all-time spot high from July 2014.
Grains mostly higher yesterday, but still very volatile as MPLS wheat again starting higher but flipping lower. Crop conditions worse than expected Monday afternoon provided the initial support. Corn held gains which is supporting KC and Chicago wheat as winter wheat harvest advances in the South. The leader was the soy complex yesterday with soybean oil nearly testing the new highs from Monday. The forecasts continue to call for hot and dry and expanding further into the WCB and the Southwest.
All grains lower overnight as the back and forth trading continues. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 11 lower, soybeans 8 to 14 lower and wheat 6 to 7 lower for KC and Chicago and 20 lower for MPLS.
USDA will update Wheat production & supply/demand estimates for all crops tomorrow at 11AM CST. This should be somewhat of minor demand adjustment report. The next big report is the updated U.S. acreage at the end of June. The average trade estimates are as follows…
US 21/22 All Wheat production at 1.892 BBU compared to May at 1.872 BBU
1.312 BBU winter wheat – 760 MBU HRW, 333 MBU SRW and 216 MBU white winter wheat
US 20/21 Corn ending stocks at 1.201 BBU, down from May’s 1.257 BBU
US 20/21 Soybean ending stocks at 122 MBU, down from May’s 120 MBU
US 20/21 Wheat ending stocks at 869 MBU, down from May’s 872 MBU
US 21/22 Corn ending stocks are expected at 1.423 BBU, May at 1.507 BBU
US 21/22 Soybean ending stocks are expected at 145 MBU, May at 140 MBU
US 21/22 Wheat ending stocks are expected at 783 MBU, May at 774 MBU
World 20/21 Corn ending stocks at 280.8 MMT versus May at 283.53 MMT
World 20/21 Soybean ending stocks at 87.1 MMT versus May’s at 86.55 MMT
World 20/21 Wheat ending stocks at 294.4 MMT versus May at 294.67 MMT
World 21/22 Corn ending stocks forecast at 289.2 MMT, May at 292.3 MMT
World 21/22 Soybean ending stocks forecast at 91.2 MMT, May at 91.1 MMT
World 21/22 Wheat ending stocks forecast at 294.5 MMT, May at 294.96 MMT
20/21 Argentina Corn production at 47.0 MMT unchanged from last month
20/21 Brazil Corn production at 97.3 MMT down from May’s 102.0 MMT
20/21 Argentina Soybean production at 46.6 MMT down from last month’s 47.0 MMT
20/21 Brazil Soybean production at 136.1 MMT up from May’s 136.0 MMT
Heavy rains overnight in western half of both SD and ND. That could be about it for the week though as light scattered rain in the forecast over the next week for all major growing areas and heavy rains in the Southeast. The main hazard continues to be the much above normal temps in the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and WCB. The 6-10 day outlook continues to show above normal temps, now pulling west as normal temps appear in the ECB, with below normal moisture for all except in the Southeast.
July corn hit a new recent high Monday at $7.06 ¼ with the contract high the next resistance at $7.35 ¼ and nearby support at $6.69 then at $6.50. December corn into a new recent high Monday at $6.18 ¼ with the contract high the next resistance at $6.38 and support at $5.74 then $5.60. July soybeans with resistance at the contract high from May 12th at $16.67 ½ and support at $15.58. November soybeans hit a new contract high Monday at $14.80 with support at $14.08. July KC wheat with support around $6.20 and resistance at $6.54. July Chicago wheat with support at $6.75 and resistance around $7.00. July MPLS wheat hit a new contract high at $8.43 ½ on Monday, down almost $1 since with support next at $7.35. July soybean meal with support around $380 and resistance at $403.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700