Date: May 12th, 2021
Livestock futures opened higher yesterday then proceeded lower as grains caught fire again. Cattle futures were able to climb pack into positive territory by lunch time and held small gains while lean hogs stayed in the red for the rest of the session. June finished in the middle of the gap formed last Monday, $109.72 would fill the gap and down to $107 would press the higher trendline. Cash feedlot trade so far this week light volume in the North at $119 to $121 live and $190 to $192 dressed which is steady to $3 higher than the week previous. Slaughter levels continue to slip lower over these past couple weeks. Despite higher beef and pork prices, packers are having a difficult time ramping up production. Some point to overall labor shortages throughout the process and for hogs specifically, seasonal supplies are tight.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/11/2021
This Week: 2,267 Last Week: 2,117 Last Year: 2,174
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 6.00 higher with most of the gain on the steer side. Demand was good for a moderate supply that included some loads and packages of yearlings alongside several quality calves.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/11/2021
This Week: 2,464 Last Week: 1,916 Last Year: 3,585
Compared to last week steer and heifer calves over 450 lbs traded steady to 5.00 higher with lighter weight calves trading 5.00-10.00 higher. Demand was good on a light to moderate supply.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/10/2021
This Week: 3,983 Last Week: 4,621 Last Year: 4,444
Compared to last week, feeder steers traded steady. Feeder heifers traded steady to 4.00 higher. Supply moderate with good demand.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/10/2021
This Week: 6,086 Last Week: 5,751 Last Year: 10,767
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 2.00 higher. Steers calves 2.00-4.00 higher. Heifer calves steady. Demand is moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/10/2021
This Week: 1,625 Last Week: 1,967 Last Year: 7,727
Compared to last week: Steers 4.00-7.00 higher. Heifers 5.00-7.00 lower. Demand good. Quality plain, few attractive. Slaughter cows mostly steady. Slaughter bulls 4.00 lower, in a light test.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 118,000 head, down 3,000 from last week but up 24,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 485,000 head, down 2,000 compared to last week but up 114,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutouts sharply higher on Tuesday but light to moderate demand with 106 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__312.37 +3.26
Select Cutout__296.34 +2.58
CME Feeder Cattle Index__130.15 -.68
Lean Hog Index__110.73 +.63
Pork Carcass Cutout__113.20 +.04
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__122.30
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__117.40 +5.18
June live cattle rebounding off the recent low at $112.57 which is right at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level from the contract high to the contract low back in April 2020 with resistance next up around $120. May feeders hit a new recent low last week at $128.50 with support next the contract low down at $127 and resistance up around $140. June lean hogs still holding the long term higher trend with a new contract high last week at $115 and support around $107.
I hate to say it, but what a “Turnaround Tuesday” for the grains yesterday, this time led by the soy complex and old crop or nearby futures more so than new crop. U.S. weather forecasts haven’t changed, still looking at above normal temps and moisture for all major growing areas. China cancelling some old crop corn but purchasing much more new crop corn over the past few days, 16.5 MBU cancelled and 120.5 MBU purchased.
Grains were mixed overnight, corn and wheat trading both sides of unchanged as soybeans extended the rally with both old crop and new crop futures hitting new contract highs. Corn finished 1 lower to 3 higher, soybeans 10 to 25 higher and wheat 1 to 4 lower.
Brazil’s CONAB updated production estimates this morning with a slight reduction in soybean output from 135.54 MMT to 135.4 MMT. Their corn production estimate was reduced by 2.56 MMT to 106.41 MMT. The average trade estimates for today’s USDA supply and demand report has Brazil Corn production at 103.05 MMT, down from April’s 109.0 MMT and Brazil soybean production at 136.05 MMT compared to April’s at 136.0 MMT.
USDA announced private sales this morning totaling 100,000 MT or 3.9 MBU of corn sold to Mexico, 1.2 MBU old crop and 2.7 MBU new crop.
USDA May Supply/Demand Average Trade Estimates
20/21 US Corn ending stocks 1.275 BBU compared to 1.352 BBU in April
20/21 US Soybean ending stocks at 117 MBU compared to 120 MBU in April
20/21 US Wheat ending stocks 845 MBU compared to the 852 MBU in April
21/22 US Corn ending stocks at 1.383 BBU
21/22 US Soybean ending stocks at 139 MBU
21/22 US Wheat ending stocks at 764 MBU
World 20/21 Corn ending stocks 279.5 MMT compared to 283.85 MMT in April
World 20/21 Soybean ending stocks 86.5 MMT compared to 86.87 MMT in April
World 20/21 Wheat ending stocks 295.4 MMT compared to 295.52 MMT in April
World 21/22 Corn ending stocks projections 283.1 MMT
World 21/22 Soybean ending stocks projections 88.1 MMT
World 21/22 Wheat ending stocks projections 294.3 MMT
21/22 All Wheat production at 1.871 BBU compared to 1.826 BBU last year
1.256 BBU winter wheat, 711 MBU HRW, 311 MBU SRW, and 232 MBU White
Heavy rains still in the forecast for the Southeast this week and into next with increasing chances now for the Southern Plains and Corn Belt over the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the U.S. with above normal moisture in the Southern Plains and Corn Belt, the missing area is the Northern Plains.
July corn hitting a new contract high last week at $7.35 ¼ with support at the 10-day moving average currently at $7.01 ¾. December corn has held a sharply higher trend since March 31st, the prospective plantings report by USDA, adding $1.88 up to the contract high last week at $6.38 with support at $5.95. July soybeans a new contract high overnight at $16.53 ¼ and support at $15.64 ¼. November soybeans holding the sharply higher trend since March 31st, adding $2.65 up to the contract high overnight at $14.49 with support around $13.88. July KC wheat contract high last week at $7.41 ½ and support at $6.83. July Chicago wheat contract high two weeks ago at $7.69 ½ with support at $7.14. July MPLS wheat a new contract high last week at $8.07 ¼ with support around $7.25. July soybean meal with nearby support at $425.5, a new recent high overnight at $453.5 and the contract high at $458.20 back on January 13th.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700