Date: December 14th, 2022
All commodities trading higher and most able to settle higher yesterday. Equities also higher and the US$ lower as November inflation numbers came in better than expected. Several live cattle contracts were able to make new contract highs. Cash fed cattle trade from last week still premium to December live cattle futures with little to no trade yet this week. Beef prices sharply higher on Monday and pulling back some Tuesday, but overall should also be supportive for steady to higher cash fed cattle trade again this week. Pork prices sharply higher yesterday as well helping prevent futures from making yet another new recent lows.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/12/2022 – Final
This Week: 10,590 Last Week: 13,925 Last Year: 14,695
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers unevenly steady, with instances 5.00 – 8.00 higher. Steer calves unevenly steady. Heifer calves 3.00 – 5.00 lower. Demand moderate to good. 7 weight index steers averaged $176-$191 and 8 weight index steers averaged $176-$189.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/12/2022 – Final
This Week: 7,306 Last Week: 10,522 Last Year: 9,922
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to 4.00 higher. Supply was heavy with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $179-$181 and 8 weight index steers averaged $177-$181.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/13/2022 – Final
This Week: 3,016 Last Week: 4,299 Last Year: 3,601
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to spots up to 4.00 higher with the advance mainly on a few of the fancier consignments. Demand was good to very good for a moderate to heavy supply of calves and feeders with the steer calves seeing the best demand.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/13/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,415 Last Week: 3,304 Last Year: 3,607
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand was good on moderate supply of calves and a light supply of yearlings. Receipts were lighter than normal due to the rain and muddy conditions.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/12/2022 – Final
This Week: 3,571 Last Week: 3,724 Last Year: 5,078
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 lower with instances of 12.00 lower, except 550 lbs – 600 lbs 4.00 to 6.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00 to 6.00 lower, except 550 lbs – 650 lbs steady to 3.00 higher. Demand for this eye appealing offering of green cattle was moderate.
7 weight index steers averaged $182-$187 and 8 weight index steers averaged $179-$180.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/13/2022 – Final
This Week: 6,430 Last Week: 7,060 Last Year: 7,071
Compared with last Tuesday, steer calves steady to 2.00 lower. Heifer calves uneven under 550 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 instances 8.00 higher, over 550 lbs steady to 2.00 lower. Yearling feeder steers steady to 2.00 lower except for 850 to 900 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 higher. Yearling feeder heifers steady to 2.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, down 7,000 head from last week and down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 487,000 head, down 3,000 compared to a week ago but up 18,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on moderate demand with 129 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__254.95 -2.07
Select Cutout__225.46 -.22
CME Feeder Cattle Index__179.97 +.78
CME Lean Hog Index__81.62 +.45
Pork Carcass Cutout __91.14 +4.20
December live cattle still holding the long-term higher trend with a new contract high yesterday at $155.15, support down around $153. January feeders also trending higher with a new recent high last Friday at $184.90, resistance next at $185.40 and support down at $180.30. December lean hogs expire today. The February contract tested resistance again last Monday at $92 then fell sharply for a new recent low on Monday at $82.80. The next support level is down around $80 and nearby resistance at $87.60.
Grains finished mixed but trading higher for most of the day. Soybeans the leader higher again after regaining all that lost on Monday. Argentina weather forecasts back to hot and dry and U.S. soybean exports remain strong. Brazil’s weather still looks very good and some drier pockets starting to develop in Paraguay. Corn and wheat tested nearby resistance levels but fell off into the close. Both will need to pick up demand, specifically exports, or USDA will look to make additional cuts next month which in turn will increase ending stocks.
Grains trading lower overnight on little fresh news so choppy trade continues. Equites higher this morning as well, US$ steady and energies are higher. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 4 lower, soybeans 5 to 7 lower and wheat 6-12 lower.
Ahead of Thursday’s NOPA November soybean crush report, the average trade estimate for domestic soybeans crushed is at 181.47 MBU. This compares to October’s crush at 184.464 MBU and last November at 179.462 MBU.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported 22/23 grain exports so far at 19.7 MMT, that is nearly 32% lower than the year ago. Russian Ag Minister stating that the current 25.5 MMT grain export quota could be increased.
Decent rains over the Southern Plains the past couple days yet still missing SW KS down into the TX Panhandle. Heavy rains still expected in the Southeast this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps across the entire country and especially through middle of the U.S. with normal to above normal moisture except in the Southwest.
March corn holding a month-long lower trend with support at $6.35 and resistance tested yesterday at $6.60. January soybeans holding the long-term higher trend with a new recent high last Friday at $14.92 ¾, which is near the top end of the range traded since July, support down at $14.25. March KC wheat holding a lower trend with a new recent low last week at $8.21 ¾, the low from August down at $8.11 ¾ and resistance at $8.80. March Chicago wheat holding a steeper lower trend, a new low for the year last week at $7.23 ½ and resistance at $7.70. March MPLS wheat a new recent low last week at $8.90, the low from August down at $8.75 ¾ and resistance at $9.45. January Soybean Meal a new contract high last week at $474.4, the spot high from August at $531.2 and nearby support at $448.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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