Date: March 1st, 2021
Livestock futures under pressure to end the week but mixed week over week. Cash feedlot trade remained mostly steady when compared to the week previous at $114 live with dressed trade steady to $2 higher from $180 to $182. Slaughter levels rebounded to come near the highest weekly totals so far this year. Beef and pork prices continue to increase in value as well.
For the week, Friday February 19th through Friday February 26th, February Live Cattle -$2.82, April -$3.67, March Feeder Cattle -$.45, April -$.10, April Lean Hogs +$2.65, June +$1.85, April Pork Cutout Futures +$2.22. Boxed Beef, Choice +$1.30 @$240.53, Select Cutout +$1.83 @ $229.73, Pork Carcass Cutout +$2.35 @ $93.84.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 119,000 head and Saturday at 64,000 head bringing the weekly total to 666,000 head, up 114,000 from the week previous and up 38,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 488,000 and Saturday at 174,000 head bringing the weekly total to 2,642,000 head, up 210,000 compared to the week previous and up 81,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to higher last Friday on light demand with only 59 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__240.53 +.14
Select Cutout__229.73 +.94
CME Feeder Cattle Index__138.91 -.57
CME Lean Hog Index__80.70 +.75
Pork Carcass Cutout__93.84 -1.29
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__79.81
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__78.52 +.58
April live cattle now the front month and still premium to cash but down $6.70 from the contract high on February 16th. The higher trend is still holding, but we are now below all major moving averages with support next at $118.50 then $115.50. March feeders still very choppy these past few months with nearby support around $137 and resistance at $142 then $145. April lean hogs holding a sharply higher trend since mid-January, a new contract high last week at $90.67 and resistance next up around $93, the spot high from the spring of 2019.
Grains finished the week mixed to lower after strong gains early last week. Both corn and soybeans were able to hold gains for the week as new crop futures hit new contract highs every day through Thursday. The spring price for crop insurance was set at $4.58 vs. December futures for corn and $11.87 vs. November futures for soybeans. These compare to a year ago at $3.88 and $9.17. Weekly export sales were disappointing this past week. South American weather still the key driver for the markets as below normal moisture remains in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil. Brazil’s soybean harvest estimated to be around 22% complete compared to 40% a year ago and 35% average pace.
For the week, Friday February 19th through Friday February 26th, March Corn +$.12 ¾, May +$.05 ¾, March Soybeans +$.28, May +$.24 ¼, March KC Wheat -$.07, May -$.04 ½, March Chicago Wheat +$.04 ¼, May +$.04 ¾, March MPLS Wheat +$.02 ¾, May -$.01 ¼, March Soybean Meal -$1.10/T, May -$2.20/T.
Grains firm overnight as Chinese soybean futures hit a record high overnight and Russian wheat values increasing. Corn finished the overnight steady to 2 higher, soybeans 10 to 12 higher and wheat 2 to 5 higher.
A start to a new month and money flow is going back in to the commodities after last week’s end of month liquidation. Weekend rains in Argentina were better than expected with below normal moisture still in the forecast but less concerning. No daily sales announced by USDA this morning.
Very mild and spring like weather to start the month of March in most areas, heavy rains still in the forecast for the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps through the center of the U.S. with below normal on both coasts and above normal moisture in parts of the WCB and West Coast with below normal in the Southwest, Southern Plains and eastern 1/3 of the country.
May corn with nearby support at $5.44, resistance at $5.60 and the new contract high from February 9th at $5.72. May soybeans contract high last week at $14.45 ¾ with support at $13.83. May KC wheat with support around $6.30 and a new contract high last week at $6.64. May Chicago wheat with support at $6.56, resistance around $6.86 and the contract high at $6.93. May soybean meal with support around $415, resistance at $442 and the contract high from January at $463.60.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700