Date: November 16th, 2020
Livestock futures finished last week mostly triple digits lower. Cattle futures shot higher on Monday, trading sideways the rest of the week and even with beef prices and cash feedlot trade higher, futures could not sustain the rally. Cash feedlot trade last week done mostly at $110 live, $3 higher than the week previous with dressed trade at $172, $5 higher. Pork prices have been trending lower recently while export sales and shipments remain strong.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 11/13/2020
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 305,300 75,100 10,400 390,800
Last Week: 222,900 26,800 18,800 268,500
Year Ago: 299,000 51,200 4,000 354,200
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold 2.00 to 5.00 higher, with instances of some individual livestock auctions being reported 7.00 to 10.00 higher. Those auctions would not have been privy to the full increase from last week’s higher trend. Demand was good for steer and heifer calves as well as true yearlings after the strong run-up early week in the CME Cattle
Complex.
For the week, Friday November 6th through Friday November 13th, December Live Cattle +$1.27, February +$.07, November Feeder Cattle -$.22, January +$1.95, December Lean Hogs unchanged, February -$2.45. Boxed Beef, Choice +$11.66 @ $225.98, Select +$10.97 @ $209.46. Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.92 @ $80.14.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 118,000 head, up 9,000 from the week previous but down 1,000 from last year. Saturday’s kill estimated at 63,000 head, bringing the week to date to 653,000 head, up 6,000 from the week previous but down 10,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 549.8 million pounds compared to 545.1 million the week previous and 550.5 million last year. Year to date beef production is -1.1% compared to last year with cattle slaughter -3.7%
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 477,000 head, down 11,000 compared to week previous but up 3,000 compared to a year ago. Saturday’s kill is estimated at 288,000 bringing week to date up to 2,688,000 head, down 25,000 compared to the week previous and down 73,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 582.9 million pounds compared to 586.4 million the week previous and 592.5 million a year ago. Year to date pork production is +1.8% compared to a year ago with hog slaughter +0.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday, lower on Choice and higher on Select with 171 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__225.98 -.52
Select Cutout__209.46 +1.22
CME Feeder Index__137.35 +.65
CME Lean Hog Index__71.32 -.05
Pork Carcass Cutout__80.14 -2.94
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__59.23 +.52
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__59.59 -.33
December live cattle with support around $109.50, the 10-day, 20-day and 50-day moving averages have all converged from there up to $109.92. Nearby resistance is up at $113 then the recent high from August at $114. November feeders holding a higher trend this past month with support around $135 then around $129 and resistance at $142 then just shy of $145. December lean hogs breaking the long term higher trend with choppy, range bound trade the past few weeks from $64 to $70.
Grains finished the week higher with corn and soybeans holding gains week over week mostly from the bullish crop report by USDA early in the week. Wheat has been under pressure more than the fall crops even though the crop report was in line with expectations and a lot of world trade has taken place this past week with multiple countries in the Middle East buying optional origin wheat. Soybean export sales last week hit 1.47 MMT which means that over 83% of the current USDA export estimate is already on the books.
For the week, Friday November 6th through Friday November 13th, December Corn +$.03 ¾, March +$.05 ¾, January Soybeans +$.46 ½, March +$.48 ¾, December KC Wheat -$.03 ¼, March -$.02 ¼, December Chicago Wheat -$.08 ½, March -$.07, December MPLS Wheat -$.02 ½, March -$.01 ¾, December Soybean Meal +$5.70/T, January +$7.50/T.
Overnight, markets fairly quiet with corn finishing 1 to 2 higher, soybeans 5 to 6 higher and wheat 1 to 4 lower.
CFTC commitment of trader data delayed until later today. NOPA domestic soybean crush out later this morning along with weekly export inspections. The average trade estimate for October crush is 177.1 MBU, up from 161.5 MBU in September. This would represent the largest October crush on record and the second highest monthly crush ever next to March 2020 when 181.4 MBU were crushed. Soybean inspections should be strong again, it is the corn that needs to pick up the pace with USDA increasing their estimate last week by 325 MBU which means that over 54 MBU need shipped every week.
Argentina received beneficial rains over the weekend while southern Brazil remains dry, along with the major producing state of Mato Grosso. Rains in the forecast from the Plains to the Great Lakes later this week and into next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for all except the West Coast with above normal moisture in the Southern Plains and Corn Belt and below normal for the Northern Plains and Southeast.
December corn with support at $4.09 then at $3.93 and resistance at the new contract high hit last week at $4.28. January soybeans hit a new contract high last week at $11.62 ¼ with support around the $11 mark. December KC wheat still holding the higher trend going back to early August with support at $5.32 and resistance at $5.70. December Chicago has held a higher trend since late June, lower this week will break that higher trend though. Support is at $5.86 with resistance up at $6.13.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700