Date: January 4th, 2021
Livestock futures higher to finish the year. Cash feedlot trade wrapped up on Thursday in the Southern Plains with live purchases $2 higher than the week previous at $112. In Nebraska, negotiated cash trading was reported steady to $2 higher from $110 to $112 and dressed purchases $3 to $4 higher from $175 to $176. Export sales for beef were friendly as pork sales slipped lower but bullish for 2021. Shipments for the week leading up to Christmas were very strong for both.
For the week, Thursday December 24th through Thursday December 31st, December Live Cattle +$.80, February +$.05, January Feeder Cattle -$1.97, March -$2.10, February Lean Hogs +$3.32, April +$1.15, February Pork Cutout +$2.15.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 99,000 head, up 32,000 from last week but down 25,000 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 425,000 head, up 141,000 compared to a week ago but down 66,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Thursday were lower with 144 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__209.95 -.58
Select Cutout__195.65 -4.21
Pork Carcass Cutout__78.58 +5.93
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__50.29 +.21
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__50.85 +1.74
February live cattle now the front month still holding a higher trend since late October but unable to break the $116.60 resistance since the past February after testing it in August and September and again this past week. January feeders also trending higher yet more sideways and choppy trade the past couple months with support around $139 and resistance at $142. February lean hogs finally able to break their sideways pattern with a breakout to the upside the end last week. Nearby support is just above $66 with resistance now the October high at $72.
The grain rally continued with corn and soybeans again hitting new contract highs on Thursday. Weekly export sales were relatively neutral for the week ending December 24th. Argentina announced that they were suspending the issuance of new corn export licenses through March 1st. Argentina has already shipped out 90% of expected corn exports, but will apparently hang onto the approximately 4 MMT to ensure supplies for domestic users amid continued ‘hot and dry’ concerns. Also in Argentina, grain inspectors continue their strike as oilseed workers signed a deal last week ending their 20-day strike.
For the week, Thursday December 24th through Thursday December 31st, March Corn +$.33, May +$.31 ½, January Soybeans +$.51 ¾, March +$.46 ½, March KC Wheat +$.14 ½, May +$.14 ¼, March Chicago Wheat +$.13 ½, May +$.13 ¾, March MPLS Wheat +$.16 ½, May +$.16, January Soybean Meal +$17.60/T, March +$15.30/T.
Overnight, soybeans led the charge higher, again making new contract highs as South American rains over the weekend were scattered and less than forecasted. Soybeans finished 25 to 31, corn 3 to 8 higher and wheat 1 to 6 higher.
News is light entering the New Year. The runoff election to decide Georgia’s U.S. Senators is tomorrow which will decide which party controls the U.S. senate. The US$ continues to make new lows with a test of the 2018 low in sight. The next USDA crop report will be next Tuesday as it is the final production estimate by NASS, the first winter wheat seedings report and an update on supply and demand from the World Ag Outlook Board.
Weather this week fairly mild to start the New Year. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the West Coast and Northern Border States and below normal in Southeast with above normal moisture only in the PNW.
March corn with a new contract high overnight at $4.97 ¾. The next resistance from the continuous weekly chart up at $5.19 ½ from 2014. January soybeans now in delivery with a new contract high overnight at $13.49 ¾. March new contract high at $13.49 ½ with $14 to $14.10 the next high also from 2014. March KC wheat, also a new high overnight at $6.13 ¾ with support at $5.75. March Chicago new contract high at $6.50 ¼ with support at $6.07. January Soybean Meal a new contract high at $444.90, March up to $440.80.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700