Date: December 2nd, 2020
Cattle futures were able to hold small gains yesterday as hogs were mixed. Cash feedlot trade is still undeveloped so far this week, only some light clean up trade in the North has been reported at $110 live and $172 dressed. Asking prices are again starting at $112 this week as some very light trade did peak at $112 to end last week but most was done at $111. Feeders have broken through for new recent highs as corn has been under pressure.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/30/2020
Total Receipts: 9,399 Last Week: 10,922 Last Year: 6,154
Compared to last week, steer calves under 650 lbs 2.00 to 5.00 higher, steers over 650 lbs 1.00 to 3.00 lower, heifers under 550 lbs and over 800 lbs steady, heifers 550 to 800 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Demand moderate to good, supply heavy. The offering consisted of mostly wean/vac calves with a few unweaned calves in the mix and yearlings.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/30/2020
Total Receipts: 10,159 Last Week: 10,094 Last Year: 7,998
Compared to last week: Feeder cattle sold steady. Steer and heifer calves 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand moderate to good. Quality mostly average, few attractive.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/30/2020
Total Receipts: 2,798 Last Week: 2,832 Last Year: 2,283
Compared to last week: Steers 4.00-7.00 Higher. Heifers 6.00 higher. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 5.00 lower. A total of 322 cows and bulls sold with 30 percent going to packers.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, matching both last week and last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 493,000 head, down 4,000 compared to last week and down 3,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values Tuesday, lower on Choice and higher on Select with 130 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__243.40 -.28
Select Cutout__223.08 +.65
CME Feeder Cattle Index__140.30 +1.41
CME Lean Hog Index__66.67 -.14
Pork Carcass Cutout__77.08 -3.01
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__57.03 -.28
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__56.67 unchanged
December live cattle still holding support right around $110 with resistance up at $111.70 and the November high at $112.70. January feeders breaking through nearby resistance at $142.45 but unable to settle above with support around $138 then $135. December lean hogs trying to break the lower trend that has been in place since October with support at $65.50 and resistance just shy of $70.
All the grains have pulled back recently with corn making new highs early Monday and soybeans within a penny of those new contract highs set last week. South American weather has improved which is providing some of the recent pressure. Domestic markets are also under pressure with ethanol inventories building and margins in the red. Soyoil stocks are also building as indicated in yesterday’s USDA crushings report.
USDA Oilseed Crushings – Soybeans crushed for crude oil was 5.90 million tons (197 million bushels) in October 2020, compared with 5.13 million tons (171 million bushels) in September 2020 and 5.62 million tons (187 million bushels) in October 2019. Crude oil produced was 2.28 billion pounds up 16 percent from September 2020 and up 6 percent from October 2019. Soybean once refined oil production at 1.59 billion pounds during October 2020 increased 6 percent from September 2020 and increased 1 percent from October 2019.
USDA Grain Crushings – Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was 481 million bushels in October 2020. Total corn consumption was up 7 percent from September 2020 but down 1 percent from October 2019. October 2020 usage included 92.0 percent for alcohol and 8.0 percent for other purposes.
Overnight markets remained under pressure as funds continue to liquidate. Soybeans pulled back $.60 in September, $.40 in October and then proceeded to the sharp $1.50 rally in November with no pull back. If they do not find support here this week it could lead to more liquidation. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 3 lower, soybeans 8 to 15 lower and wheat 1 lower to 1 higher. Outside markets are weaker as well with equities and energies both lower this morning.
Heavy rains for the East Coast later this week, some wintery mix for the Southern Plains over the next couple days. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps centered over the Northern Plains and stretching from the Great Lakes to OK and back to West Coast and below normal temps on the East Coast with normal to below normal moisture for all areas.
December grain contracts are now in delivery. March corn with a new contract high earlier this week at $4.39 ½ with resistance from the continuous weekly chart next at $4.50 and support at $4.13 ½ then $4.08 ¾. January soybeans contract high last week right at the $12 mark, up to $11.99 in Monday’s overnight trade. The last time a spot contract was above $12 was back in June 2016 at $12.08 ½. Nearby support at $11.38. March KC wheat chopping sideways the past couple months and back down near the bottom end of that range with support at $5.32 and resistance at $5.60. March Chicago wheat breaking that rangebound trade this week with support next around $5.70 and resistance at $6.00.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700