Date: November 2nd, 2020
Livestock futures were steady to higher to end last week. Cattle futures held gains for the week while lean hogs were lower week over week as pork prices have been under sharp pressure recently. Neither beef nor pork weekly export sales were exceptional this past week either. Noticeably light cash feedlot trade heading into the weekend with the Southern Plains reported at steady money with live purchases at $106. In Nebraska live trade was $2 lower at $103 and dressed trade steady from $162 to $166.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 10/30/2020
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 187,500 11,100 2,100 200,700
Last Week: 248,500 27,100 36,600 312,200
Year Ago: 274,600 49,000 2,000 325,600
Compared to last week, steers and heifer calves sold uneven; 3.00 lower to 2.00 higher. Limited amounts of yearlings sold steady to 3.00 higher. Receipts were light in the calf and yearling producing area of the Southern Plains this week as a winter storm rolled through making transportation of livestock treacherous. The Southern Plains had areas of flooding, freezing rain and snow; sometimes all of them in a short amount of time. Oklahoma City National Stockyards sold only 3100 head while Joplin Regional Stockyard sold 2700 head and Winter Livestock in Pratt, KS cancelled their regular Thursday sale. These auctions and others were the cause for the total auction receipts this week to be around 88K short of a year ago.
For the week, Friday October 23rd through Friday October 30th, October Live Cattle +$2.62 December +$4.72, October Feeder Cattle +$3.25, November +$7.75, December Lean Hogs -$1.45, February -$1.37. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.93 @ $208.10, Select -$2.28 @ $191.24. Pork Carcass Cutout -$15.39 @ $83.80.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 114,000 head, up 11,000 from the week previous but down 4,000 from last year. Saturday was estimated at 64,000 head, bringing the week to date to 638,000 head, down 5,000 from the week previous and down 21,000 from last year. Beef production last week was estimated at 537.3 million pounds compared to 541.4 the week previous and 542 million last year. Year to date beef production is -1.1% compared to last year with slaughter -3.8%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 485,000 head, down 1,000 compared to week previous and down 4,000 compared to a year ago. Saturday’s kill is estimated at 251,000 bringing week to date up to 2,683,000 head, up 11,000 compared to the week previous and up 5,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week was estimated at 577.8 million pounds compared to 572.6 the week previous and 570.9 a year ago. Year to date pork production is now +1.8% compared to last year with slaughter +0.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday, higher on Choice and steady on Select with 106 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__208.10 +.78
Select Cutout__191.24 +.01
CME Feeder Index__136.76 +2.42
CME Lean Hog Index__75.49 -.78
Pork Carcass Cutout__83.80 -3.77
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__61.79 -.34
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__61.35 -.31
December live cattle now the front month with support at $102.52, last week’s low, and resistance around $109 then $113. November feeders showing a nice recovery last week after testing and holding support around $129 with resistance at $140 then just shy of $145. December lean hogs still holding a higher trend going back to early August with support at $64 and resistance up around $70.
Grains finished last week mixed as soybeans hit new contract highs and corn new recent highs early last week. No follow through buying was able to be generating though and by midweek profit taking hit the grains which resulted in double digits losses across the board. Outside markets weaker for most of last week as COVID-19 surges around the world. We also have the general election this coming Tuesday, may not know results but then, but all markets are bracing for the day. Weather here in the U.S. is fairly mild heading into November as rain chances have improved in South America and Brazil soy planting is picking up the pace.
For the week, Friday October 23rd through Friday October 30th, December Corn -$.20 ¾, March -$.17, November Soybeans -$.27 ¼, January -$.24 ¾, December KC Wheat -$.28 ½, March -$.28 ¾, December Chicago Wheat -$.34 ¼, March -$.32 ½, December MPLS Wheat -$.25 ¼, March -$.21 ¾, December Soybean Meal -$7.80/T, January -$8.00/T.
Overnight, grains were under pressure yet outside markets were positive with equities pointing to a higher open, energies steady and the US$ slightly weaker. The United Kingdom over the weekend made the announcement, following France and Germany, that the second nationwide lockdown will begin this week and last at least 4 weeks. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 5 lower, soybeans 3 to 9 lower and wheat 3 to 5 lower.
USDA announced a private sale this morning of 204,000 MT or 8 MBU of corn sold for unknown destinations.
U.S. weather looks wide open to wrap up fall harvest this week, there is some light precip for the Rockies into the WCB in the forecast for this coming weekend into early next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps east and below normal west with above normal moisture across the middle of the country.
December corn up to a new 15-month high last week at $4.22 ¼ with support being tested around $3.93 and the next down around $3.88. November soybeans are now in delivery with light volume and no daily trading limits. The January contract hit a new contract high last week at $10.88 ½ with support around $10.35. December KC wheat still holding the higher trend going back to early August with support at $5.32 and resistance at $5.53 ½. December Chicago has held a higher trend since late June with support at $5.87 and resistance around $6.15.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700