Date: September 22nd, 2020
Livestock futures started this week mixed to mostly lower. Heavy cattle continue to add tonnage as consumer demand along with exports continue to grind through the excess supplies with a continued lack of demand from hotel, restaurant and school programs. Showlists though do appear to be smaller again this week with the light feedlot placement this past spring.
Fundamentals should be the market mover this week with the USDA Cold Storage report later this afternoon, the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday then the Cattle on Feed report after the close on Friday.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/21/2020
Total Receipts: 5,679 Last Week: 6,075 Last Year: 4,667
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves steady, yearling steers steady, yearling heifers steady to 3.00 higher with the increase on the 600 weights. Demand moderate to good, supply moderate. The offering a mix of un-weaned and wean vac calves, along with several yearlings. Dry conditions continue to persist in southwest Missouri, with the U.S. Drought monitor showing Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/21/2020
Total Receipts: 5,500 Last Week: 8,737 Last Year: 6,295
Compared to last week: Feeder steers under 800 lbs 1.00-3.00 lower; over 800 lbs 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 700 lbs 1.00-3.00 lower; over 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Weaned steer and heifer calves lightly tested and few sold steady. Demand moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/21/2020
Total Receipts: 3,752 Last Week: Last Year:
Compared to last week: Steers 6.00 to 9.00 lower. Heifers 5.00-7.00 lower. Demand good. Quality plain thru good. Slaughter cows 3.00- 4.00 lower. Slaughter Bulls 1.00-3.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 120,000 head, matching last week and up 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 485,000 head, down 1,000 compared to last week but up 41,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to higher with 106 loads sold on Monday.
Choice Cutout__216.22 +.58
Select Cutout__205.82 +1.88
CME Feeder Index__141.98 -.21
CME Lean Hog Index__71.29 +1.71
Pork Carcass Cutout__90.09 +2.56
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__62.59 +1.09
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__61.12 +.13
October live cattle chopping sideways over this past few trading sessions with support at $106 then around $103.50 and resistance up at $108 then $109. September feeders expire this Thursday. October feeders with support at $104.50 then around $138 and resistance at $144. October lean hogs holding support at $64 with last week’s new 6-month high at $68.72 and resistance next up around $70.
Grains started the week with a sharp pullback. Harvest pressure continues and all the grains, specifically the soy complex, are very overbought. Export demand continues with USDA announcing private sales for a few more soybean cargoes sold for unknown destinations, Pakistan and China yesterday morning. Grains inspected for export met or exceeded expectations and all but corn above the average per week needed for the week ending September 17th. Corn was still a solid number at 29.7 MBU with the average needed per week at 45 MBU. China led the way with 8.1 MBU followed by Colombia with 5.3 MBU and Mexico taking 4.5 MBU. Soybean inspections totaled 48.2 MBU with the average needed at 39.9 MBU. China again the leader taking 30.8 MBU. Grain sorghum totaled 2.8 MBU, all China. Wheat totaled 17.3 MBU led by Japan at 3.5 MBU, Brazil at 2.3 MBU then China at 2.1 MBU.
Crop progress and conditions showed corn harvest progressing 3% to 8% nationwide and soybean harvest at 6% complete. Grain sorghum harvest now 27% complete and winter wheat planting up 10 points last week to now 20% complete. Corn conditions were up 1% while soybean conditions remained unchanged.
Grains were mixed last night, bouncing back to finish steady to higher. Corn finished the overnight steady, soybeans 4 higher and wheat 3 to 4 higher.
The lowest wheat offers for Egypt this morning coming from Russia followed by France then Ukraine. World values continue to increase helping support U.S. values yet we are still not competitive into the Middle East or Northern African markets.
USDA announced more private sales this morning…320,000 MT or 12.6 MBU of corn and 264,000 MT or 9.7 MBU of soybeans for unknown destination, 140,000 MT or 5.5 MBU of corn and 266,000 MT or 9.8 MBU of soybeans for China.
Above normal temps continue this week across the Rockies, Northern Plains, and PNW. The 6-10 day outlook still holding above normal temps over the western half of the U.S. with below normal in the Southeast and Corn Belt and below normal moisture over the western half of the U.S. with above normal in the eastern half.
December corn hit a new 6-month high last week at $3.79 ¼ with resistance next up around $3.85 and support around $3.62. November soybeans into a new contract high last week at $10.46 ¾ with resistance next up around $10.50 looking at the weekly continuous chart and going back to the summer of 2018, nearby support at $9.75. December KC wheat hit a new 5-month high last week at $5.09 with support around $4.64. December Chicago wheat with a new 7-month high last week at $5.78 ¼ and support at $5.33.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700