Date: August 19th, 2020
Mixed day for all the Ag commodities yesterday. Live cattle futures traded both sides of unchanged finishing steady to slightly lower. Cash feedlot trade though $2 to $4 higher than last week on some light trade in TX, KS and NE yesterday from $106 to $108 live and $170 dressed. Beef prices continue to climb higher helped support packers to stay at or near capacity. Feeders held onto gains with September through January triple digits higher. There are some big sales coming this week from Superior and Western Video along with next week’s Northern Livestock Auction. Lean hogs were hit the hardest yesterday with triple digit losses. That nearby level from $54 and higher has been tested over this past week, just as it was in early June and July yet unable to get above $55 since May.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/17/2020
Total Receipts: 4,369 Last Week: 4,442 Last Year: 1,749
Compared to last week, steers under 700 lbs steady, steers over 700 lbs and heifers (all weights) steady to 2.00 higher. Demand moderate to good, supply moderate.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/17/2020
Total Receipts: 6,590 Last Week: 8,386 Last Year: 2,382
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 2.00-4.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly steady. All classes of steer and heifers suitable for grazing are trading sharply higher as much as 7.00-9-.00 higher. Demand good to very good. Quality mostly plain, very few attractive.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/17/2020
Total Receipts: 2,179 Last Week: 2,257 Last Year: 1,369
Compared to last week: Steers and heifers under 500 lbs 5.00-10.00 higher, with instance of 15.00-20.00 higher. Steers over 500 lbs sold steady to 2.00 higher. Heifers over 500 lbs were steady to 4.00 higher. Demand moderate to good. Several light weight calves included and these sold to very good demand. Slaughter cows steady to 2.00 lower, except Lean cows 5.00-8.00 lower. Slaughter bulls mostly steady in a light test. Packer demand moderate to good. A total of 363 cows and bulls sold with 70 percent going to packers.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, up 3,000 from last week and from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 483,000 head, up 25,000 from last week and up 1,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values sharply higher with 173 loads sold on Tuesday.
Choice Cutout__220.86 +3.60
Select Cutout__204.65 +2.71
CME Feeder Index__142.63 +2.43
CME Lean Hog Index__54.81 +.97
Pork Carcass Cutout__74.06 -.49
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__37.93 +.10
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__37.53 -.11
August live cattle with a new recent high on Monday at $108.22, holding a higher trend since bottoming out in early April. Nearby support is down at the 20-day moving average at $103.30 with resistance next up around $111. August feeders also holding the long term higher trend and into new 6-month highs last week with support at $143 and resistance at $146.40 then around the $150 area. October lean hogs have traded a $10 range since mid-May with resistance from $54 to $55 and the contract low down at $46.47.
Grains were mixed to mostly lower after fresh gains on Monday. The crop conditions were 2% lower for both corn and soybeans, some expected to see more of decline though. Iowa corn was down 10% and soybeans down 8% from last week’s storms. The Iowa Ag Department stated that 57 MBU of commercial grain storage was damaged and a similar amount of on farm storage. That is a huge amount, but to also put that in perspective, Iowa has over 3.5 BBU grain storage capacity, on and off farm combined. They also narrowed down the corn acreage with significant damage to 3.6 million acres. The 6-10 day outlook remains hot and dry with some moisture starting to creep into the Northern and Eastern Corn Belt. China and unknown destinations continue to source new crop corn and soybeans, nearly daily sales announce by USDA over these past few weeks. Chicago wheat had been a 3-day sharply higher rally with US sales of HRW announced yesterday morning. There are quite a few Middle East tenders coming up for wheat with Black Sea origins still in control and U.S. not competitive.
Overnight, grains traded both sides of unchanged with corn finishing 1 to 2 lower, soybeans 1 to 2 higher and wheat 1 to 3 higher.
USDA announced a private sale of 192,000 MT or 7.05 MBU of new crop soybeans sold to China. So far this month, over 3 MMT or over 113 MBU of new crop soybeans have been sold to China and for unknown destinations.
Heat continues out West with heavy rains expected in the Gulf this weekend. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps across the U.S. with above normal moisture for the East Coast and creeping into the Northern and Eastern Corn Belt while below normal moisture persists in the Southwest and the Plains.
September corn filling the gap from Monday with resistance around $3.35 then $3.55 and support at $3.18. December corn has support at $3.30, the contract low at $3.20, resistance at $3.46 then $3.63. September soybeans unable to push through $9.15 the past couple days with resistance again up around $9.20 and support at $8.89. November soybeans look similar with this week’s high capped at $9.17 ½, resistance up around $9.20 to $9.27 and support at $8.91. September KC wheat still holding a long term lower trend with the contract low at $4.09 ¾ and resistance up at $4.39 then $4.47. September Chicago wheat with support around $4.90 and resistance up at $5.17 ½ then around $5.35.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700