Date: January 6th, 2020
All grain and livestock futures were lower to end the week as gold and crude shot higher as the ramp up with Iran took center stage. Cash feedlot trade last week was reported at $2 higher than the week previous with $124 to $125 live and $198 to $200 dressed sales. Export sales for December 20th through the 26th were bearish for beef at only 3,700 MT for 2019 and 5,700 MT for 2020. Exports were down 23% from the 4-week average as well at 12,600 MT. Net pork sales and shipments though were friendly with 24,100 MT sales for 2020 and shipments at 30,600 MT. Net sales for 2019 were a marketing year low of 3,300 MT due to cancellations by China of 13,300.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 01/03/2020
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This week: 37,900 15,400 0 53,300
This week: 5,300 16,400 0 21,700
Year Ago: 79,300 23,200 7,400 109,900
Steers and heifers were not well tested nationwide these last two weeks as most auctions were closed due to the major holidays occurring mid-week. Those that did have sales this week were quoting much stronger prices as order buyers and farmer feeders alike were back in the seats ready to fill orders. Most observers described the buyers’ moods as being “hungry” and they are ready to procure cattle as the holidays seemed to drag out this year. Yearlings and calves alike were in demand on this holiday shortened week.
For the week, Friday December 27th through Friday January 3rd, February Live Cattle -$1.97, April -$2.10, January Feeder Cattle -$2.20, March -$2.12, February Lean Hogs -$2.02, April -$2.72. Boxed Beef, Choice -$.47 @ $208.49, Select +$.82 @ $205.39. Pork Carcass Cutout -$.82 @ $74.22.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 122,000 head, matching the week previous and up 3,000 from last year. For the week, 546,000 head, up 78,000 from the week previous and up 11,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 450.7 million pounds compared to 387.8 million the week previous and 440.2 million last year.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 493,000 head, up 10,000 compared to the week previous and up 15,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,293,000 head, up 264,000 compared to the week previous and up 42,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 492.8 million pounds compared to 436.3 million the week previous and 484.9 million last year.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on Choice and higher on Select on moderate to fairly good demand and heavy offerings for a total of 127 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__208.49 +.24
Select Cutout__205.39 +2.76
CME Feeder Index__144.87 +1.27
CME Lean Hog Index__58.62 +.89
Pork Carcass Cutout__74.22 +.37
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__38.60 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__50.50 +.27
National Wtd Avg Live Price__39.67 +1.33, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__50.50 +.02
February live cattle are still trending higher but mostly sideways since November with support at $124.50 the past 2 trading sessions then down around $123 with the contract high from mid-December up at $127.90. January feeders have been stuck in range bound choppy trade with the most recent between $142.77 and $146.65 for the past few weeks. A break below $140 would lead to additional downside pressure. February lean hogs have a lower trend in place since mid-April with support at $65.40 and resistance around $72.
Export sales for grains for the week ending December 26th were low, but also expected being the week of Christmas. Corn totaled 20.9 MBU, soybeans 12.1 MBU, wheat 11.5 MBU and grain sorghum only 15,700 BU to Mexico. Last Thursday USDA reported domestic soybean crush for November at 175 MBU compared to 187 MBU in October and 178 MBU for November 2018. Corn used for ethanol in November was reported at 507 MBU, 5% higher than October and 1% higher than November 2018. This Friday, USDA will update supply and demand, quarterly stocks and winter wheat seedings.
For the week, Friday December 27th through Friday January 3rd, March Corn -$.03 ½, May -$.03 ¾, March and May Soybeans unchanged, March KC Wheat -$.04 ¾, July -$.05 ¼, March Chicago Wheat -$.01 ¾, July +$.00 ¾, March MPLS Wheat -$.06, March Soybean Meal +$.80/T.
Overnight, grains were mostly weaker, gold and crude higher once again. Corn finished fractionally lower, with soybeans and wheat 1 lower.
No sales announced by USDA this morning. Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT or 2.6 MBU of corn overnight, likely to come from Argentina.
Weekend rains fell in southern Argentina and Northern Brazil, most areas are still looking very good except for Rio Grande do Soul, Brazil’s 3rd largest grain producing state, where a lack of rains the past few weeks could lower production. This week in the U.S., heavy rains are forecasted for the Southeast with mostly mild temps for most areas. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps west and above normal east with above normal precipitation across the majority of the country.
March corn in a tight range from $3.85 to $3.92 since mid-December after breaking the lower trend that was in place since mid-October. March soybeans trying to hold support at $9.34 and continue the higher trend that started in early December with resistance at $9.61 then $9.70. March KC wheat still trending higher with support at $4.57 and resistance at $4.97. March Chicago wheat also still trending higher with support at $5.38 and resistance up around $5.67 then $5.73 ½, the high from this past summer. March soybean meal still holding a lower trend with the contract low down at $295.50 and resistance around $307.50.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700