Date: September 16th, 2019
Cash feedlot trade was light through Friday afternoon at $99 to $100 live in the South which is steady with the week previous and $159 to $160 dressed in the North which is steady to $3 lower. Lean hogs have been the leader for livestock futures with gap higher and limit moves the past two trading sessions as export trade looks to pick up. China announced they will not place the last round of additional tariffs on both U.S. pork and soybeans.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 08/13/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 176,400 73,500 122,000 371,900
Last Week 106,800 58,100 14,700 179,600
Year Ago 184,400 60,400 44,800 289,600
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold mostly 2.00-6.00 lower, with calves as much as 10.00 lower. Many markets were compared to two weeks ago coming back from last week’s Labor Day Holiday. Continued good demand remains for calves and yearlings. We are entering the time of year where every week we are starting to see more calves coming to market. With winter wheat grazing around the corner demand remains good for feeders. Fall planting and harvest is quickly approaching, with wheat planters rolling in the South and corn choppers and combines starting to make their way out of the machine sheds in the North.
For the week, Friday September 6th through Friday September 13th, October Live Cattle +$3.20, December +$4.62, September Feeder Cattle +$3.15, October +$3.67, October Lean Hogs +$2.97, December +6.22. Boxed Beef, Choice -$6.43 @ $220.88, Select -$3.34 @ $198.60. Pork Carcass Cutout -$5.11 @ $68.21.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 109,000 head, down 6,000 compared to the week previous and down 11,000 from last year. For the week, 629,000 head, up 64,000 from the week previous but down 27,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 512 million pounds compared to 459.3 million the week previous and 541.2 million last year. Beef production only up .1% compared to a year ago with cattle slaughter up 1.1%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 476,000 head, up 52,000 compared to the week previous and up 81,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,611,000 head, up 407,000 compared to the week previous and up 288,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 542.8 million pounds last week compared to 458.2 the week previous and 484.4 million last year. Pork production is up 3.7% compared to a year ago with slaughter up 3.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on Select and higher on Choice on moderate to good demand and offerings for a total of 127 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__220.88 +.91, -6.43 for the week
Select Cutout__198.60 unchanged, -3.34 for the week
CME Feeder Index__136.09 -.56
CME Lean Hog Index__59.71 -.98
Pork Carcass Cutout__68.21 -2.26, -5.11 for the week
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__46.40 +.20
National Wtd Avg Live Price__34.90 -2.71, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__45.67 -.64
October live cattle into a new contract low last week at $93.40 with a bounce higher at the end of the week to test resistance at $99.50 with the next up at $101.67. September feeders breaking the lower trend last week with support $134.30 and resistance at $137.75. October lean hogs still holding the long term lower trend and remain choppy in a $10 range from the recent low down at $59.30 up to the nearby resistance near $69.
Grains finished the week mixed but at least held higher for the week. The crop report Thursday was friendly enough for soybeans to pull all the grains higher. The export sales to Mexico early in the week and the soybean sales to China helped hold those gains. The USDA flashed a sale of 204,000 MT of soybeans to China – look for additional confirmations in the coming days/weeks with sources indicating up to 2 MMT has traded this past week and the total order could end up near 5 MMT leading into next month’s trade talks in Washington. Weather still holding to warmer than normal which is helping fall crops finish. Wheat futures are still stuck with burdensome worlds stocks and lower world prices, but the tightness in SRW wheat stocks here in the U.S. may keep Chicago wheat futures from breaking down much more.
For the week, Friday September 6th through Friday September 13th, December Corn +$.13 ¼, March +$.12 ¾, November Soybeans +$.41, January +$.40 ¼, December KC Wheat +$.06 ½, March +$.06, December Chicago Wheat +$.19 ¾, March +$.19, December MPLS Wheat +$.11 ¼, March +$.11 ½, October Soybean Meal +$8.60/T, December +$8.50/T.
Overnight, grains traded both sides of unchanged with corn finishing 1 higher, soybeans 1 to 2 lower and wheat steady to 1 higher. Crude spiked higher overnight with the drone attack in Saudi Arabia cutting the countries oil production in half. President Trump announced the use of oil from the country’s emergency reserve.
USDA announced a private sale of 256,000 MT or 9.4 MBU of soybeans sold to China this morning. Export inspections out later this morning along with NOPA crush. USDA will update crop progress and conditions after the close today.
Last week I was able to attend the USDA lockup again thanks to American Farm Bureau, at least this last one was a positive report. One comment from NASS was that the corn and soybeans yields are still challenging with the delayed crops and the October report should be a much better picture of final yield. The other factor will be harvested corn acres as it was left unchanged in the September crop report.
This week’s forecast calling for much above normal temps in the Northern Plains along with 1”+ rains from there straight down to the Gulf. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook still showing above normal temps centered over the Corn Belt which is helping the fall crops finish and staving off much talk of an early frost/freeze. Precipitation chances are above normal for the Corn Belt and Plains, below normal for the Southwest and Southeast.
December corn into a new contract low last week at $3.52 ¼ with the next weekly low down at $3.40 and resistance up near $3.80. November soybeans down to a new recent low last week at $8.51, breaking the $9 resistance with the next up near $9.13. December KC wheat holding sideways this past month with the contract low down at $3.81 and resistance up around $4.10. December Chicago wheat breaking the lower trend with support at $4.72 ½ and resistance up at $4.91 then around the $5 mark.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700